SEPTEMBER 28, 2026
INTEREST RATES – The market currently places the Fed Funds Rate at 4.2%-4.4%. The Fed just raised the actual Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.0%. Another 25bp increase is needed. But, that can change before their next meeting. The chance of a decrease is essentially zero.
HOUSING – It is good to see the average 30-year mortgage rate above 7% again. This is a solid, and affordable, market level. Below this is artificially low. Spec new housing construction continues to reach all-time high levels. This is occurring with a huge amount of unsold new homes. The average price of a new home has declined 8.8% in a year. And that does not include the ever-increasing freebies that builders are throwing at potential buyers (and hiding from sales contracts and recorded prices!). (Sarcasm intended now…) For a country with a housing shortage, it is amazing that we can have a near-record number of unsold new homes and apartment vacancy rates much higher than they were 3-4 years ago. The reality has been for 25 years that we have WAY WAY WAY too much housing in this country.
ECONOMY – The 3rd Quarter is ending and the market says zero chance of a recession through the 1st Quarter of 2027. GDP growth for each of the last two quarters is expected to be around +2.0%-2.5%. The Atlanta Fed’s indicator is +5.0% for the 3rd Quarter. But, it has been way off many times. The point is people have been screaming that a recession has been upon us since 2022…..5 years of being 100% wrong.
SENATE ELECTION – Hopefully, we will get a lot more data in October. Right now, it is looking like 52 Dems to 46 GOP with 2 too close to call. The trend all along has been a definite Dem win in the Senate. When states like Ohio and Texas have favored the Dem solidly all along and my state of SC has the race down to the GOP candidate (Graham) being favored by less than 5 points, it looks like a sold Dem performance in the Senate. SC should have Graham easily favored by 10-15 points. As I mentioned before, there just isn’t enough data to make a forecast for the House. What I originally posted, still holds (Dems taking control by less than 10 seats…sort of a flip of what the GOP has now). This is all a cursory look at the data. I no longer spend time really digging deep into it.
That is all that is my mind for now. Absorbing the news that OpenAI won’t release ChatGPT 6.1 – because they can no longer control it. Frustrating. Just give it to me to have some fun lol
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: The Mann
THE CANNABIS REAL ESTATE PREMIUM
SEPTEMBER 18, 2026 – This is only a sampling of two. If you are an appraiser and have some examples (confidentially, of course) I can add to this sampling, please contact me at GeorgeRMann@Aol.Com. Thanks.
Property #1 – This is a new industrial building that was leased to a tenant that used it as a packaging facility. The value conclusion in 2024 was $3,500,000. The tenant defaulted on the lease and the property was subsequently appraised at $1,980,000 in early 2026. This is a 43% reduction in value. Or looking at it the other way, the cannabis effect showed a 77% premium. The same appraiser performed both appraisals. And time is not a significant issue.
Property #2 – This property was renovated in 2003. It has two cannabis-related tenants – a retail dispensary store and a medical doctor. In the same appraisal, the appraiser indicated the value under a non-cannabis use was $1,200,000. The value based on the in-places leases was $1,850,000. This indicates a 54% premium. Or a 35% reduction in value.
CONCLUSION – Roughly, the data suggests a 50% to 75% premium for having a cannabis operation. The question becomes is that premium Intangible Value? As with national tenant leased properties, above market rent cannot add value to the underlying real estate. All because a tenant has a cannabis business, why would that change the value of the real estate?
Hopefully, I can add to this over time and see if there is a consistent range of data.
The Mann
INTEREST RATE & ECONOMY UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 16, 2026 – The Fed did as the market instructed and raised the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp today.
Over a year ago, my August 12, 2025 post said it was more likely that an increase would occur than a decrease. I am confident I was the only person who said an increase was coming. A year later we got it.
How did I make such a forecast when nearly 100% of the pundits forecast further declines? I have mentioned it many times before – the Elliott Wave Theory. The EWT has let me tell you for the past 18 months that interest rates would soar well over the 5% level. And they have done just that.
ECONOMY – An interesting disagreement between two recession predictors may occur soon. The stock market has clearly said there will be no recession through the 1st Quarter of 2027. In my August 1, 2025 post, I mentioned the yield curve is another recession predictor. Back then it was at -35bp. Today it is around +65bp. I mentioned that when it gets to +100bp we are in a recession. The good part is it moves slow. So, we know well ahead of time if it says we are in a recession. 13 months later it has moved 100bp and is 35bp from the 100bp target.
I hope I don’t have to make a call between these two indicators. If I do, I will side with the stock market. It is a reflection of how the smart money sees the economy in 6 months. The yield curve is simply a math equation.
To avoid this conflict of indicators, either the stock market needs to drop soon and significantly or the yield curve needs to flatten out.
As always, we shall see. No need for me to opine now. We have time.
Shalom,
The Mann
Over a year ago, my August 12, 2025 post said it was more likely that an increase would occur than a decrease. I am confident I was the only person who said an increase was coming. A year later we got it.
How did I make such a forecast when nearly 100% of the pundits forecast further declines? I have mentioned it many times before – the Elliott Wave Theory. The EWT has let me tell you for the past 18 months that interest rates would soar well over the 5% level. And they have done just that.
ECONOMY – An interesting disagreement between two recession predictors may occur soon. The stock market has clearly said there will be no recession through the 1st Quarter of 2027. In my August 1, 2025 post, I mentioned the yield curve is another recession predictor. Back then it was at -35bp. Today it is around +65bp. I mentioned that when it gets to +100bp we are in a recession. The good part is it moves slow. So, we know well ahead of time if it says we are in a recession. 13 months later it has moved 100bp and is 35bp from the 100bp target.
I hope I don’t have to make a call between these two indicators. If I do, I will side with the stock market. It is a reflection of how the smart money sees the economy in 6 months. The yield curve is simply a math equation.
To avoid this conflict of indicators, either the stock market needs to drop soon and significantly or the yield curve needs to flatten out.
As always, we shall see. No need for me to opine now. We have time.
Shalom,
The Mann
AGI & THE SINGULARITY ARE DEFINITELY HERE
UPDATE – SEPTEMBER 28, 2026 – OpenAI just announced that it will not release ChatGPT 6.1 to the public. It reportedly jumped the firewalls and attacked 4 websites including 3 that were the US Government. The modern-day AI Frankenstein is no longer controllable. OpenAI, Anthropic, and the others can stop releasing updates for their own systems. But, others can create their own LLMs and let them run free. The horse is out of the barn. A new world where AGI (not really AI anymore) does whatever it wants has arrived. To paraphrase a saying, we live in interesting times. And folks, you haven’t seen anything like what you are going to see from here on. It is incomprehensible because this form of intelligence exceeds what any human has ever achieved.
SEPTEMBER 13, 2026 – Just a quick note for what is the most important moment in human history since 3200 BC when the Sumerians invented writing. The powers-to-be are going public with what some of us knew last year – AGI and the Singularity now exist. Please research them so you know where we are and where we are headed.
My analogy is AI is caveman math and AGI is differential equations. AI is irrelevant. AGI just solved the second of the Millenium Prize Math problems. Every day from now on AGI will be solving things that no human that has ever lived has solved.
This will be great for medicine. Not so great for those doing evil – OpenAI shut down the account of a scientist that appeared to be making a biological weapon. The latter cannot be stopped once people start making their own LLMs and avoid using ChatGPT and Perplexity and Claude and such that are monitored by the big companies.
I just read that 80% of the advances in AI are now created by AI itself. This will continue to speed up exponentially. And, AGI is FAR FAR FAR superior to AI.
Musk and Altman just called for a slowing down of AI. Thankfully, Trump said no to that. Government involvement never helps progress.
As I said last year, 2025 (and 2026) will go down as the most important years in human history. 99.999999999999% of the public don’t know that and won’t know it til 2030 or 2035. You do. Do something with that knowledge and you will be ahead of the masses.
Now the real fun in this world begins….it will be difficult to keep up with the advances. Literally, they won’t just be occurring daily…it will become hourly. Us Exponentialists have talked about the Singularity and the future not needing companies or fiat money or humans to work. I read that it is possible already to launch a new company in minutes. Why have a company if someone can create the same thing in minutes?
This time next year we will be so far advanced that 2026 will look archaic. By 2030, we will laugh at the things we were doing in 2026.
The train has left the station. Enjoy the ride or be left behind.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 12, 2026 – August CPI came in at 3.4%. The monthly reading was +0.32%. It is looking like the index is getting back to being predictable. The data had forecast 3.2% to 3.5%. For the next report, the data expects 3.1% to 3.6%.
TRIVIA – I found this interesting. Maybe you will, too. When carrying your phone and it is giving you your location, it does NOT rely on GPS or mapping. It relies on time! The time it takes for the speed of light to travel from your phone to 4 different satellites is used to make 4 circles. The intersection of these circles provides your exact latitude, longitude, and altitude. Your location is based on time, not space. Go figure:)
Shalom,
The Mann
TRIVIA – I found this interesting. Maybe you will, too. When carrying your phone and it is giving you your location, it does NOT rely on GPS or mapping. It relies on time! The time it takes for the speed of light to travel from your phone to 4 different satellites is used to make 4 circles. The intersection of these circles provides your exact latitude, longitude, and altitude. Your location is based on time, not space. Go figure:)
Shalom,
The Mann
EARLY ELECTION LOOK
SEPTEMBER 6, 2026 – After the perfect forecast for the 2024 Presidential Election, I said I would not predict future elections. Best to go out on a perfect forecast:)
So, this is just a quick, cursory forecast. I might update it before the election.
HOUSE – Impossible to predict as there simply is not enough data for the individual contests. I think this will flip to the Dems 222-214 with 1 or 2 Independents.
SENATE – Right now, it is 50-47 Dems with 3 races just too close to call. I think it will end up 52-48 for Dems. I am surprised to see Ohio and Texas (!!!) going with the Dem candidates.
If the above happens, Americans get what they have preferred in my lifetime – a government gridlock. They do not trust either party to have total control.
9/11 is this Friday – please take a moment to think about our losses and how life can change in a second.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
AUGUST 16, 2026 – July CPI came in at 3.4%. The monthly reading was -0.01%. This was the first monthly reading smaller than 0.35%. Last year only two months were above 0.35%. The index is experiencing extreme volatility this year. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. For the next report, the data expects 3.2% to 3.5%. I don’t think we can rely too much on the data for the remainder of this year.
FUTURE ALTERNATIVE LAND USES – Just some things for you to mull over:) What will we do with all of the roads when all car travel occurs by air (A company has a Jetson’s car out now)? Will we give those right-of-way back to the adjacent landowners? Those are who we took it from.
What will we do with all of the airports when Transporters become the norm for travel? Where will that great big graveyard for planes be located? One already exists in the desert of Arizona or New Mexico. Guess we can expand that one. I suppose railways and trains won’t be needed either. Nor all of those 53′ trucks.
What will we do with all of the closed power plans and unneeded power lines? Free energy for everyone is within 1-2 generations. Fission and Fusion are obvious targets. One company has developed a way to make natural gas out of air and water and has started up its first machine in a desert north of Los Angeles. Their goal is free energy for all within one generation. This initial test is producing energy 95% cheaper than normal rates.
Are the wealthy prepared for diamonds, gold, silver, titanium, etc to become close to worthless? A company is hard at work on mining asteroids. There are asteroids with 10x or 100x or 1000x the quantity of precious metals than our entire planet has. In the mid-1800s, aluminum was more valuable than gold. Things change.
Many of us won’t live to see the above occur. But, your kids and grandkids definitely will. “The future is so bright, I have to wear shades.” – Timbuk 3
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY UPDATE
AUGUST 2, 2026 – The 2nd Quarter GDP came in at +1.5%. Below market expectations. Excluding some unusual items, it was closer to +4.0%. But, I don’t like to exclude unusual items because every quarter has them:) Early readings for the 3rd Quarter are around +5%. I can’t imagine a reading that high. Albeit, it sounds like some of the items that caused the 2nd Quarter reading to be low might be made up to the upside in the 3rd Quarter. Regardless, the most important thing the market is telling us is there is ZERO chance of a recession thru at least the 1st Quarter of 2027. Those forecasting a recession since around 2022 maintain their perfect record:)
Another stat that caught my eye was unemployment claims at 187,000. This is the LOWEST since 1969. And we have way more workers almost 60 years later. All of the crying about AI taking jobs appears to be propaganda as usual.
As for people saying ‘that must be AI,’ I just don’t get it. We started ‘Photoshopping’ pictures and videos almost 30 years ago. To now look at a picture or video and think it might be altered??? Where have people been for the past 30 years of fake pics and videos???
I will leave now before I rant rant rant lol
Shalom,
The Mann
Another stat that caught my eye was unemployment claims at 187,000. This is the LOWEST since 1969. And we have way more workers almost 60 years later. All of the crying about AI taking jobs appears to be propaganda as usual.
As for people saying ‘that must be AI,’ I just don’t get it. We started ‘Photoshopping’ pictures and videos almost 30 years ago. To now look at a picture or video and think it might be altered??? Where have people been for the past 30 years of fake pics and videos???
I will leave now before I rant rant rant lol
Shalom,
The Mann
FED FUNDS RATE
JULY 27, 2026 – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.9%-4.1%. It is set at 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed will not change rates this week. However, the market is suggesting a rate increase before yearend may be needed. Right now, the odds are strong for an increase at the September meeting. As an aside, the 30-Year Treasury Bond rate is the highest it has been since 2007! That is amazing. Anyone expecting mortgage rates to go down is expecting wrong.
AMAZING STAT OF THE DAY – I recently read that of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 in 1996 only 165 exist today. Around 2/3rds of the 500 largest companies in America 30 years ago have disappeared!!! That is incredible. However, I would not be surprised if 80%-90% of today’s S&P 500 companies are gone in just 20 years. As Jeff Bezos said years ago, one day Amazon will be gone.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
JULY 15, 2026 – May CPI came in at 3.5%. The monthly reading was -0.35%. The largest negative reading since COVID. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. For the next report, the data expects 3.8% to 3.9%. I don’t think we can rely too much on the data for the remainder of this year.
Shalom,
The Mann