Tag Archives: Presidential Election

MID-YEAR UPDATE

JULY 3, 2024 – I forgot two items in post below. The next wave up should take gold to $2500-$2600 ounce and the next wave up should take Bitcoin well above $100,000. And most importantly, Happy 248th Birthday to the USA!

JULY 1, 2024 – As you get older, the years fly by quicker and quicker:) Here’s an update on a few items.
STOCK MARKET – The Dow has now put in two lows in the 37,500-39,000 that I had forecast for being a bottom. I think it will put in a third low around 38,500 before the Summer is over. Then we should see a strong rally to the final Bull Market top of 43,000+.
BONDS – Treasury Bonds are at a critical junction. I don’t like those because what it says is we may go up or we may go down. Anyone can say that lol. I am sticking with the bullish case and expect a turn up at any moment literally with interest rates declining for several months. Even if the weakness occurs, it just delays the up move in prices and thus downturn in interest rates.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – Simply put, I expect it to be 4.4%-4.5% by yearend.
RECESSION – Today is the 2nd anniversary of a very strong economic expansion. As I noted all along, it was missed by the vast majority of economists and pundits. Also remember, until the 2030’s when we see +100% annual GDP, we will not see annual rates of 3%+ anymore. Annual growth over 1% is good and over 2% is exceptional and cannot be sustained for long. As with interest rates, people need to adjust to the new normal. Is a recession finally the horizon. Yes, finally! I mentioned last year that a longer-term indicator was suggesting a recession might occur in 2025. First years of a presidential cycle are usually the weakest. Also, if the stock market does top out this Fall and turns down significantly, then it will be signally for a recession at the end of Spring into the Summer of 2025. As I mentioned awhile back, when the economists and pundits give up on a recession, then we know one is right around the corner:) Numerous articles like the following have come out this year:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yield-curve-disinversion-is-recession-signal-watch-2024-06-04/
Although some argue this indicator has not been wrong since World War II, it was wrong in 1966. What is significant about that? That was the year the Dow first broke 1,000 and was at all-time highs. Similar to today.
In the above article and others, people start grasping at straws and say well maybe it isn’t wrong, yet. In the past recessions have started 13-22 months or whatever after the inversion occurs (fyi it was July 2022 when it occurred this time around). We are now passing 24 months and with a near zero chance of a recession occurring this year, we will be at 30+ months. Time to just admit this, and another dozen indicators I have mentioned in past blogs, indicator is simply wrong. Come on, admit it:)
Enjoy your Summer and an interesting Fall. Only 126 days til the 2024 Presidential Election. But, sadly, only 1,587 days til the 2028 Presidential Election and we know the campaigning begins after the 2024 election is settled (which no longer is the day or night of the election itself).
Shalom,
The Mann