SEPTEMBER 14, 2024 – We are under two months til the election. It is time to add to this analysis how far off the polls have been in the past two elections. This will likely add some more gray area to the forecast. But, we all know every presidential election is now full of lots of gray area. Lots of 50/50 outcomes.
SENATE – NO CHANGE – This really hasn’t changed in over two months. Only one race matters – Montana. And the GOP candidate is holding a solid 6-7 point lead. The Dems know they will lose the Senate. No race may be 100% certain. But, this one is 99% certain. Basically, there is no way the Dems will have control of all three parts of the government. Only the Republicans have a chance at that.
HOUSE – It looks like this is a total toss-up. A ton of races too close to call. A winner might not be decided until days after the election.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump appears to be back in control of this race. Up by about 1.5%. A small margin of error for the polls. So, let’s give this one back to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Harris is ahead by about one point. However, this is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!.
That is way more than what the polls show Harris up by.
It is time to start getting bold with the predictions:) This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – The Harris lead is down to less than one point. The last four polls average out to a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This is enough to give this state to Trump right now. Another prediction that is opposite of what the media is showing.
Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Close with Harris now up by about 0.5%. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. Tough call. But, time to make a call on every state.
This one goes from toss-up to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Now the closest state. Of the last 8 polls, they each lead in 4 and the total sum is exactly 0.0%. Another dead heat. Let’s goal to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Simply put, the same as NC. A statistical dead heat. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. Give this one to Harris. Harris 248 Trump 271
PA – Basically, another dead heat state. Other than the ridiculous Bloomberg polls, Harris has not led a poll in this state. But, the polls have been ties or Trump by only 1%. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will wimp out and leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 248 Trump 271
No surprise in saying this election looks like it will go down to the wire and we will not know the winner til days later. That is as of today. Things can firm up one way or another in the next 6+ weeks. But, I doubt it. lol
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
I will be back in 2 weeks. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann