OCTOBER 22, 2024 – Best to update this frequently at this point. In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 7%-8% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 32 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 11 seats. Of the 32 toss-up seats, 19 are incumbent Democrats and 13 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 1.8-2.0 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.4 points. Of the last 7 polls, Trump leads in 2, Harris in 1, and 4 are Ties. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Trump is up by 1.2-1.3 points. The last 8 polls have Trump ahead (one to four points) or show a Tie. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.3-0.9 points. The last 6 polls are 2 for Harris, 2 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. For now, this one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 0.3-0.4 points. Of the last 7 polls, it is 3 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 1 Tie. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.7-2.5 points. All 8 October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are leaning towards Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. For the first time, I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.8-1.0 points. The last 3 polls all have Trump up by 3 points. It’s too early to call, but this one is starting to pull well into Trump’s favor. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 312 (up from 302 a week ago) if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: house
CAN PEOPLE AFFORD 7% MORTGAGE RATES?
JUNE 15, 2023 – YES! The simple answer is, of course!
I saw a survey this week where people said they needed mortgage rates to drop to about 4% for them to afford a new house. As my friend The Red-Shoe Economist, KC Conway, would say ‘I call BBQ-Sauce!’
People can afford a 7% mortgage rate. They can afford a 10% mortgage rate! Us old-timers remember when a rate below 10% was a bargain.
People buy a mortgage payment. They do not buy a home price. Everyone knows that. So, all people have to do is adjust the price downward (and the mortgage amount is obviously based on the purchase price…for simplicity, I will assume a 100% LTV since people do not put much money down).
Let’s say someone can afford a $2,000/month PITI (for now, assume no escrow). At a 4%, 30-year mortgage, they could buy a $418,922 house. Technically, a higher price if the LTV was less than 100%.
At a 7% mortgage rate, the $2,000/month PITI can buy a $300,615 house. The point is they can still afford a house at a higher interest rate. They just have to adjust the price category they look at. They do the same thing when interest rates go down – they look at houses pricier than they really need. Well, adjust in the other direction when rates go up! Life is so simple.
Also, one major benefit to the above that gets overlooked is it is alot easier to save for a down payment on a $300k house than a $420k house! People have a much easier time of getting into a new house when they adjust their price target downward.
Combine the above with a low inventory and you probably have an explanation for home prices rising every month this year. Demand remains strong. People can afford houses at the new interest rate level.
Lastly, I find the argument that the public cannot afford a house payment at 7% interest weak when they can afford to run up their credit card debt at 18.99%-26.99%+ interest rates!!!!!! Another way to more easily afford a mortgage payment at current rates is to not have credit card debt! Adjust your way of living. It’s that simple.
By this time next year when the world realizes the day of artificially low interest rates is history and will not return, they will simply adjust to living with 7%-8%+ mortgage rates and supply and demand analyses will work the same as they did before. People adjust. They always have. It’s just easier to complain before facing reality and adjusting the way they do things. Human nature.
Shalom,
The Mann