MAY 13, 2026 – April CPI came in at 3.8%. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. The data expects CPI to be 4.0%-4.4% in the next report.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market still has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Nothing has changed since the events started with Iran. Talk of a rate increase has picked up significantly. It is only about 9 months after I suggested such:) Why was it possible to predict a possible rate increase 9 months ago when the market was giving it a 0% chance of occurring? Simply put, the Elliott Wave Theory.
The 30-year Treasury Bond yield is over 5% and has increased by 100bp (!!!) since The Fed started lowering rates. Any day now it should exceed the October 2023 high (5.12%) which will place it at a 19-year high (July 2007). We all remember what occurred in 2008-2009.
GENOME – I have the results of my genome sequencing and will discuss when I have time. Pretty neat info.
Til next month re the above two items.
Shalom,
The Mann
All posts by George Mann
GENOME SEQUENCING
MAY 4, 2026 – I am having my genome read by Sequencing.Com. I will be your guinea pig as to how this goes:)
There are 3 billion (!!!) pairs of DNA to be read. They read them 30 times to make sure they get it exactly right. They will then run it through 15,000 (!!!) diseases. I don’t know if that will show diseases I currently have or will get down the road if I live long enough. I will keep you posted.
CRISPR came along about 25 years ago. They are able to snip out a single bad ‘letter’ and get rid of a disease or such. This method has a bit of downside as the DNA on both sides of what is snipped tries to heal itself before it is put back together.
So, two new methods have been invented. Basically, like an eraser. Erase the bad letter or letters and put in the good ones. Simply mind-boggling they can find the ‘bad’ letter out of 3 billion letters. I am curious as to what a letter looks like. My HSA paid for it so I went with the maximum product available.
As an aside, before I forget. Where this might be heading…..Eli Lilly is the largest pharma company involved in fixing DNA. People ask why a company that sells pills would want to permanently fix illnesses. Main reason is they make very little to no money on most of the pills they sell. They can charge $600,000 (you read that right) to permanently fix a disease (like heart disease!). Insurance companies will pay them this as it is cheaper than the millions of dollars they would pay for a patient who has heart disease over many years. Lilly lets them pay $60k a year for 10 years with a guaranty that the patient won’t have another heart attack and this or that reading won’t go above a certain number, etc. A win-win for both companies.
Is it a win for the patient? If you were near 100% sure you wouldn’t have any more heart problems, what price would you put on that? They already are able to stop dementia from worsening. They can’t reverse the damage. But, they can 100% stop more damage. That is HUGE!!!!!! For real estate appraisers, think how negative this is for Memory Care Facilities! Their demand will decline significantly going forward.
As I said last year, 2025 will go down as the most important year in the history of the world since writing and language were invented. By 2030, what we have today will look trivial. Change is occurring literally by the hour.
It took CRISPR 13 years and I think billions of dollars to sequence the first genome. It is now done in 24 hours for $300. I imagine in the not-too-distant future it will be provided for free.
I will be back with my genome results within a week or two I think.
Shalom,
George
There are 3 billion (!!!) pairs of DNA to be read. They read them 30 times to make sure they get it exactly right. They will then run it through 15,000 (!!!) diseases. I don’t know if that will show diseases I currently have or will get down the road if I live long enough. I will keep you posted.
CRISPR came along about 25 years ago. They are able to snip out a single bad ‘letter’ and get rid of a disease or such. This method has a bit of downside as the DNA on both sides of what is snipped tries to heal itself before it is put back together.
So, two new methods have been invented. Basically, like an eraser. Erase the bad letter or letters and put in the good ones. Simply mind-boggling they can find the ‘bad’ letter out of 3 billion letters. I am curious as to what a letter looks like. My HSA paid for it so I went with the maximum product available.
As an aside, before I forget. Where this might be heading…..Eli Lilly is the largest pharma company involved in fixing DNA. People ask why a company that sells pills would want to permanently fix illnesses. Main reason is they make very little to no money on most of the pills they sell. They can charge $600,000 (you read that right) to permanently fix a disease (like heart disease!). Insurance companies will pay them this as it is cheaper than the millions of dollars they would pay for a patient who has heart disease over many years. Lilly lets them pay $60k a year for 10 years with a guaranty that the patient won’t have another heart attack and this or that reading won’t go above a certain number, etc. A win-win for both companies.
Is it a win for the patient? If you were near 100% sure you wouldn’t have any more heart problems, what price would you put on that? They already are able to stop dementia from worsening. They can’t reverse the damage. But, they can 100% stop more damage. That is HUGE!!!!!! For real estate appraisers, think how negative this is for Memory Care Facilities! Their demand will decline significantly going forward.
As I said last year, 2025 will go down as the most important year in the history of the world since writing and language were invented. By 2030, what we have today will look trivial. Change is occurring literally by the hour.
It took CRISPR 13 years and I think billions of dollars to sequence the first genome. It is now done in 24 hours for $300. I imagine in the not-too-distant future it will be provided for free.
I will be back with my genome results within a week or two I think.
Shalom,
George
FED FUNDS RATE & ECONOMY UPDATE
April 30, 2026 – As expected, the Fed did not lower the Fed Funds Rate at yesterday’s meeting. Unexpected was Powell &**#*# over Trump by staying on as a Governor. This leaves the Board at 4-3 against Trump selections.
In my 40+ adult years, I noticed that SCOTUS and most judges do not make rulings based on the letter of the law. They make their decision based on which political party put them into their position. The last people I trust to interpret law are our judges. Now, it is likely the Fed Board will vote in the same way. This could lead to the Fed moving the Fed Funds Rate when the market says don’t. This would be the FIRST time the Fed ever dictated interest rates! How the bond and stock markets react will be very interesting. But, we haven’t got to this event…yet.
ECONOMY – The initial 1st Quarter GDP came in at +2.0%. The early projection for 2nd Quarter is a whopping +3.7%! It was over a year ago the Tariff Tantrum occurred. As I said over and over, tariffs had ZERO chance of sending us into a recession. That case is long closed. Remember all of those people who shouted recession and don’t pay attention to them again.
The stock market is pretty much saying the economy is safe through the 3rd Quarter. With 2nd Quarter GDP very likely to be positive, a recession cannot occur until after this year ends.
A side note about GDP. For the first time, the effect of AI entered the GDP equation. Without AI, First Quarter GDP would have been much lower than +2.0%. This is not a one-time deal. This is now a permanent part of the Economy and GDP. If forecasts come to fruition, we will start seeing 4% and 5% and higher GDP. None of it due to population growth (below 0.7% annually already….btw, I saw a study, that even NAR noted, say there are over 15 million (!!!) vacant houses in the USA…..sort of kills that NAR and NAHB narrative about a housing shortage eh!), FYI, the end game of AGI (remember, AI is cave man era stuff….AGI is the real change to this world) is we will no longer have GDP readings or really an economy. GDP could hit numbers like +100%. It will no longer have meaning. We are 4 or so years away from that though.
The other thing the stock market has disproven over the past few months is the myth that a war is bad for stocks. Not! There have been numerous examples of stocks going up during wartime. Thankfully, I learned as a teenager all of these assumptions about war affecting stocks or earnings many anything on and on were wrong. Fundamentals have nothing to do with the stock market. But, 99.99999999% of people will never believe that. That is a good thing:)
INFLATION – Adding a note about this item on the fly. The Mideast situation entered what I thought might happen when the initial ceasefire was announced – a sort of perpetual ‘dirty’ ceasefire. I believe Trump thinks he can make Iran capitulate by destroying their economy. I don’t think that is possible. Iran and Russia have survived all economic attacks. I think the only way to keep Iran from messing with the Straits is do what Trump said he was about to do – send them back to the time of Persia. Drones are too cheap and numerous to ever stop. So, you have to make it so the enemy surrenders unconditionally – like Japan. I am not condoning anything. Just my observation of what it would take to 100% end this situation.
That said, the point is Oil appears to be set to remain high for an extended period of time. Unlike tariffs, this will result in inflation going up. Transportation is a significant part of most prices. As I mentioned initially, it can take up to 4-6 months for Oil to get to its destination and be used as needed. It will likely take the remainder of the year for higher Oil prices to result in a steadily higher CPI. A moving average of CPI will likely be more useful than monthly figures due to atypical volatility.
Until next time.
Shalom,
The Mann
In my 40+ adult years, I noticed that SCOTUS and most judges do not make rulings based on the letter of the law. They make their decision based on which political party put them into their position. The last people I trust to interpret law are our judges. Now, it is likely the Fed Board will vote in the same way. This could lead to the Fed moving the Fed Funds Rate when the market says don’t. This would be the FIRST time the Fed ever dictated interest rates! How the bond and stock markets react will be very interesting. But, we haven’t got to this event…yet.
ECONOMY – The initial 1st Quarter GDP came in at +2.0%. The early projection for 2nd Quarter is a whopping +3.7%! It was over a year ago the Tariff Tantrum occurred. As I said over and over, tariffs had ZERO chance of sending us into a recession. That case is long closed. Remember all of those people who shouted recession and don’t pay attention to them again.
The stock market is pretty much saying the economy is safe through the 3rd Quarter. With 2nd Quarter GDP very likely to be positive, a recession cannot occur until after this year ends.
A side note about GDP. For the first time, the effect of AI entered the GDP equation. Without AI, First Quarter GDP would have been much lower than +2.0%. This is not a one-time deal. This is now a permanent part of the Economy and GDP. If forecasts come to fruition, we will start seeing 4% and 5% and higher GDP. None of it due to population growth (below 0.7% annually already….btw, I saw a study, that even NAR noted, say there are over 15 million (!!!) vacant houses in the USA…..sort of kills that NAR and NAHB narrative about a housing shortage eh!), FYI, the end game of AGI (remember, AI is cave man era stuff….AGI is the real change to this world) is we will no longer have GDP readings or really an economy. GDP could hit numbers like +100%. It will no longer have meaning. We are 4 or so years away from that though.
The other thing the stock market has disproven over the past few months is the myth that a war is bad for stocks. Not! There have been numerous examples of stocks going up during wartime. Thankfully, I learned as a teenager all of these assumptions about war affecting stocks or earnings many anything on and on were wrong. Fundamentals have nothing to do with the stock market. But, 99.99999999% of people will never believe that. That is a good thing:)
INFLATION – Adding a note about this item on the fly. The Mideast situation entered what I thought might happen when the initial ceasefire was announced – a sort of perpetual ‘dirty’ ceasefire. I believe Trump thinks he can make Iran capitulate by destroying their economy. I don’t think that is possible. Iran and Russia have survived all economic attacks. I think the only way to keep Iran from messing with the Straits is do what Trump said he was about to do – send them back to the time of Persia. Drones are too cheap and numerous to ever stop. So, you have to make it so the enemy surrenders unconditionally – like Japan. I am not condoning anything. Just my observation of what it would take to 100% end this situation.
That said, the point is Oil appears to be set to remain high for an extended period of time. Unlike tariffs, this will result in inflation going up. Transportation is a significant part of most prices. As I mentioned initially, it can take up to 4-6 months for Oil to get to its destination and be used as needed. It will likely take the remainder of the year for higher Oil prices to result in a steadily higher CPI. A moving average of CPI will likely be more useful than monthly figures due to atypical volatility.
Until next time.
Shalom,
The Mann
HAPPY 40TH TO ME
APRIL 21, 2026 – 40 years ago I started working for the lady that ended up being my future wife. I never really thought about a 40-year career in appraising. But, here it is in my rear-view mirror.
I had lots of time to think about what I would write. I mainly thought about writing what I have seen in the industry over the past 40 years.
In the end, I decided against such. To paraphrase Jack Nicholson’s famous character, people could not handle the truth. The second quote that came to mind was what I told my parents when I was 15 years old. This or that event or concern or whatever is not important because it won’t be remembered in 1 or 5 years.
In the end, I am learning to just let things go and not say what is on my mind. Because none of what I did in my career matters. The world doesn’t care about any appraisal I ever reviewed and accepted. So, onward we go:) As I have said for decades (I sure do like to quote myself lol), life is just a game. It doesn’t matter. Don’t take this existence too seriously.
I will say I had 2 highlight moments in my career (getting my MAI is not one of those). Guess that is better than none:) My 3rd and best moment of all will be when I post here that I am out of this industry. One day…..
I will end by paraphrasing a Bob Seger song:
40 years now
Where’d they go?
40 years
I don’t know
I sit and I wonder sometimes
Where they’ve gone
Shalom,
The Mann
I had lots of time to think about what I would write. I mainly thought about writing what I have seen in the industry over the past 40 years.
In the end, I decided against such. To paraphrase Jack Nicholson’s famous character, people could not handle the truth. The second quote that came to mind was what I told my parents when I was 15 years old. This or that event or concern or whatever is not important because it won’t be remembered in 1 or 5 years.
In the end, I am learning to just let things go and not say what is on my mind. Because none of what I did in my career matters. The world doesn’t care about any appraisal I ever reviewed and accepted. So, onward we go:) As I have said for decades (I sure do like to quote myself lol), life is just a game. It doesn’t matter. Don’t take this existence too seriously.
I will say I had 2 highlight moments in my career (getting my MAI is not one of those). Guess that is better than none:) My 3rd and best moment of all will be when I post here that I am out of this industry. One day…..
I will end by paraphrasing a Bob Seger song:
40 years now
Where’d they go?
40 years
I don’t know
I sit and I wonder sometimes
Where they’ve gone
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION and FED FUNDS RATE UPDATE
April 11, 2026 – March CPI came in at 3.3%. The increase was solely due to fuel prices increasing by a record-breaking 20%+. Without that item, CPI would have been at the originally expected 2.4%. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. Fuel prices are likely to go up and down double-digits for several months. Once things finally settle down, I will see where we stand. For the heck of it, my data expects CPI to be 3.2%-3.6% in the next report.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Nothing has changed since the events started with Iran. For a bit, the market was pricing in the chance of an INCREASE in rates this year. I had mentioned last Summer that an increase was more likely than another decrease. After the cease fire (As I write this, the USA and IRAN are meeting for the first time since 1979….I have no idea how the talks will turn out), the market priced away the chance of an increase this year.
FUTURIST TIDBIT – This month it is simply factual information about how AI is replacing workers. What is not mentioned in the Amazon item is they plan on NOT hiring the 600,000 people they will need over the next 5 years. AI will handle all of those jobs! I leave you with these items:
Salesforce cut its support team from 9,000 to 5,000 after AI started handling half their customer conversations. Amazon cut roughly 30,000 corporate roles, saying AI lets them run leaner. Klarna’s AI assistant replaced the equivalent of 700 human agents. IBM is slowly letting 7,800 back-office positions evaporate through attrition. SAP announced a restructuring of 8,000 roles and promised 500 million euros in additional annual profit.
ARTEMIS – I will keep my thoughts short. This was so 1969. Boring. Nothing new. They didn’t even land on the moon!!!!!! I guess when you grow up near the Cape and see the entire Skylab and Space Shuttle programs you aren’t impress by a moon redux. I love NASA and space stuff. But, this was a total waste of time and money. What is impressive is how we went to the moon in the 1960s using just an abacus:) I look back and am amazed how we accomplished such almost 60 years ago.
Til next month. We may know alot more re the Middle East. Or we will be in a long, slow phase of who knows how this will end.
Shalom,
The Mann
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Nothing has changed since the events started with Iran. For a bit, the market was pricing in the chance of an INCREASE in rates this year. I had mentioned last Summer that an increase was more likely than another decrease. After the cease fire (As I write this, the USA and IRAN are meeting for the first time since 1979….I have no idea how the talks will turn out), the market priced away the chance of an increase this year.
FUTURIST TIDBIT – This month it is simply factual information about how AI is replacing workers. What is not mentioned in the Amazon item is they plan on NOT hiring the 600,000 people they will need over the next 5 years. AI will handle all of those jobs! I leave you with these items:
Salesforce cut its support team from 9,000 to 5,000 after AI started handling half their customer conversations. Amazon cut roughly 30,000 corporate roles, saying AI lets them run leaner. Klarna’s AI assistant replaced the equivalent of 700 human agents. IBM is slowly letting 7,800 back-office positions evaporate through attrition. SAP announced a restructuring of 8,000 roles and promised 500 million euros in additional annual profit.
ARTEMIS – I will keep my thoughts short. This was so 1969. Boring. Nothing new. They didn’t even land on the moon!!!!!! I guess when you grow up near the Cape and see the entire Skylab and Space Shuttle programs you aren’t impress by a moon redux. I love NASA and space stuff. But, this was a total waste of time and money. What is impressive is how we went to the moon in the 1960s using just an abacus:) I look back and am amazed how we accomplished such almost 60 years ago.
Til next month. We may know alot more re the Middle East. Or we will be in a long, slow phase of who knows how this will end.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION and FED FUNDS RATE UPDATES
March 13, 2026 – February CPI came in at 2.4%. This was around the consensus and in the middle of my projected range. 3-month inflation is 3.3% and 6-month inflation is 1.7%. This brackets the annual rate.
My data expects CPI to be 2.3%-2.5% in the next report. I think that is reasonable with the odds being more towards the high end.
Now that the tariffs argument is pushing up daisies, the inflation mongers get to grab on to high oil prices. Although transportation is a significant cost, I don’t think it will translate to a huge inflation bump. But, I would expect some increase this Summer. It takes 45-120 days for oil to get shipped around to various places in the world. So, any tick up in CPI due to current oil prices won’t occur for 4-6 months. The futures market is pricing oil in 6 months at pre-conflict prices. Something will happen. It just won’t be huge.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely. In fact, the market has changed to not expecting any rate cuts this year! A side note, the 30-year rate is about to hit 5% again.
FUTURIST TIDBIT – For those that read to the end, I will provide a tidbit of information about how quickly we are advancing down the AI highway. The company OSMO has digitized smell. We first digitized sight. Then we digitized sound. Now, it is smell. I guess one day the other senses will be digitized. When I look at everything, I am amazed that we are simply a world of 1s and 0s. Every picture. Every video. Every sound. Simply consist of 1s and 0s. Think about that. Now you can add smell to that list:)
I’ll briefly mention a second tidbit as I have not dug deeper into this event. Standford University has successfully created energy in space and transferred it to Earth. Ultimately, besides fission and/or fusion, this will lead to unlimited cheap to free electricity worldwide. Elon Musk has said he will need to use space for the amount of electricity his companies will need. When OpenAI alone will use more electricity than all of India, you see the need for new ways to create power. Space with its cold temp is ideal. More in future posts.
As one of my 1980s bands sang – the future is so bright, I have to wear shades:)
Shalom,
The Mann
My data expects CPI to be 2.3%-2.5% in the next report. I think that is reasonable with the odds being more towards the high end.
Now that the tariffs argument is pushing up daisies, the inflation mongers get to grab on to high oil prices. Although transportation is a significant cost, I don’t think it will translate to a huge inflation bump. But, I would expect some increase this Summer. It takes 45-120 days for oil to get shipped around to various places in the world. So, any tick up in CPI due to current oil prices won’t occur for 4-6 months. The futures market is pricing oil in 6 months at pre-conflict prices. Something will happen. It just won’t be huge.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely. In fact, the market has changed to not expecting any rate cuts this year! A side note, the 30-year rate is about to hit 5% again.
FUTURIST TIDBIT – For those that read to the end, I will provide a tidbit of information about how quickly we are advancing down the AI highway. The company OSMO has digitized smell. We first digitized sight. Then we digitized sound. Now, it is smell. I guess one day the other senses will be digitized. When I look at everything, I am amazed that we are simply a world of 1s and 0s. Every picture. Every video. Every sound. Simply consist of 1s and 0s. Think about that. Now you can add smell to that list:)
I’ll briefly mention a second tidbit as I have not dug deeper into this event. Standford University has successfully created energy in space and transferred it to Earth. Ultimately, besides fission and/or fusion, this will lead to unlimited cheap to free electricity worldwide. Elon Musk has said he will need to use space for the amount of electricity his companies will need. When OpenAI alone will use more electricity than all of India, you see the need for new ways to create power. Space with its cold temp is ideal. More in future posts.
As one of my 1980s bands sang – the future is so bright, I have to wear shades:)
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS RATE UPDATE
FEBRUARY 17, 2026 – January CPI came in at 2.4%. This was below the consensus 2.5% and should put the discussion of tariffs to bed permanently. 3-month inflation is 0.6% and 6-month inflation is 1.4%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history. Getting to 2% will be extremely difficult. But, I am not sure it is needed.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 2.0%-2.1% in the next report. I think it will be in the 2.3%-2.5% range.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 2.0%-2.1% in the next report. I think it will be in the 2.3%-2.5% range.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
RIP TARIFFS ARGUMENT
JANUARY 26, 2026 – Now, it is official that everyone that said tariffs would lead to runaway inflation and a recession have been PROVEN WRONG! Will they admit it? No. Just research anyone you hear to see if they had predicted tariffs would be a problem. If they did, then why listen to them now? You heard me say from the beginning they would not be a problem.
December CPI came in at an amazing 2.7%. It is hard to explain how incredible the year ending below 3.0% is. I doubt anyone will mention this, but, deflation might be more of a worry now. 3-month inflation is -0.9% and 6-month inflation is +0.9%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 1.9%-2.1% in the next report. January usually has about the highest inflation reading of the year. So, I would expect something in the 2.5%-2.8%.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
December CPI came in at an amazing 2.7%. It is hard to explain how incredible the year ending below 3.0% is. I doubt anyone will mention this, but, deflation might be more of a worry now. 3-month inflation is -0.9% and 6-month inflation is +0.9%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 1.9%-2.1% in the next report. January usually has about the highest inflation reading of the year. So, I would expect something in the 2.5%-2.8%.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
HAPPY NEW YEAR
DECEMBER 26, 2025 – I hope you had a great 2025 and that 2026 will be even better. Just a quick update on various items.
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
FED FUNDS RATE
DECEMBER 4, 2025 – The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Unless rates drop 10+ bp in a week, I don’t see a rate cut occurring. I believe President Trump puts his new Fed Chair in place in January. For the first in history, we may have the Fed change rates against what the market is telling it to do. We shall see. And if it occurs, we will see how the markets react. In the interim, Happy Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
Shalom,
The Mann