All posts by George Mann

INCREASED FOCUS ON APPRAISALS AND APPRAISAL REVIEWS

MARCH 14, 2025 – The following is from the Appraisal Institute’s ‘Appraisal Now’ email newsletter. The first time I saw regulators focus on Appraisal Review was during the 2005-2010 Financial Crisis. This is the second time. As such, appraisers should include more expense comparable data specifically (especially re Insurance!). Reviewers should focus more intently on expenses. Trust me, with bank examiners being given this guidance they are going to be laser focused on expenses in the Income Approach!! My experience is about 50% of appraisers provide a table of expense comparables with the individual expenses listed and then an analysis of each for estimating the individual subject expenses. About 50% do not provide any support and maybe will say maintenance typically ranges from $0.50 to $1.50/sf and I conclude at X. That is not support. I encourage those appraisers to step up their game. Because if examiners come across those appraisal reports with no detailed support, they will have that bank or credit union remove that appraiser from their approved list! And bank examiners only see black and white. They are not appraisers. They will see those appraisals with a table of 4 or 5 expense comparables and individual expenses listed. Then they will see those reports that do not have such tables. The latter is in trouble. Obviously, you should also have a table of subject actuals for the past 1-3 years, when available. Just my advice from 33 years of being in the bank appraisal review world and dealing with examiners and regulators.
Shalom,
The Mann
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Bank Examiners Highlight Key Appraisal Issues for 2025

Recent industry meetings between bank chief appraisers and bank examiner policy specialists have brought to light several key issues that appraisers should be aware of in 2025. These discussions reflect the evolving expectations and regulatory scrutiny surrounding appraisals, particularly in the banking sector. Below are the primary points of emphasis that emerged from these meetings.

Appraisal Quality Remains a Top Concern
Bank examiners continue to stress the importance of appraisal quality, underscoring the need for well-supported valuations that withstand regulatory and client scrutiny. Ensuring compliance with professional standards, proper market analysis, and credible adjustments remain critical in maintaining confidence in appraisal reports.
The Ongoing Concern Over Engaged Appraisers Not Signing Reports
A recurring complaint in these discussions—brought up annually—is the issue of appraisers engaged for assignments not signing their reports. This raises concerns about accountability, potential outsourcing issues, and the integrity of appraisal reports. Examiners urge banks and appraisal firms to reinforce best practices and ensure that the responsible appraiser is clearly identified in every report.
Data Center Appraisal Issues Persist
Data center valuations continue to pose challenges, with bank examiners revisiting concerns from previous years. These properties have unique valuation factors, including high infrastructure costs, evolving technology, and variable market demand. Appraisers working in this niche should stay updated on emerging valuation methodologies and market trends to address examiner expectations.
Ongoing Scrutiny of Participation Deals
Participation deals remain an area of focus, as they were last year. The complexity of these deals can introduce valuation challenges and potential risk exposure for financial institutions. Examiners urge appraisers to ensure transparency, provide thorough documentation, and carefully analyze risk factors when handling such assignments.
Increased Expectation for Reviewers to Challenge Assumptions
Another significant takeaway is that examiners expect review appraisers to question and push back on key assumptions made in appraisal reports. This aligns with a broader push for stronger due diligence and critical analysis. Appraisers should be prepared for increased scrutiny of their market assumptions, income projections, and comparable selection.
Heightened Focus on Expenses, Particularly Insurance Costs
Bank examiners also emphasized the need for greater attention to expenses in appraisal reports, particularly related to insurance. Rising insurance costs have become a growing concern, impacting property valuations and financial risk assessments. Appraisers should ensure that expense projections, including insurance, reflect current market conditions and provide adequate justification.
What This Means for Appraisers
With these continued and emerging concerns, appraisers should take proactive steps to ensure their reports meet heightened expectations. Strengthening report quality, addressing recurring industry concerns, and preparing for increased review scrutiny will help appraisers navigate the evolving regulatory landscape in 2025.

INFLATION UPDATE

MARCH 12, 2025 – The February report came in at 2.8%, below my estimate at 3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.7%. These figures are at or above the annualized rate (2.8%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain steady. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I am thinking 2.6%-2.8%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.

INFLATION UPDATE

FEBRUARY 13, 2025 – The January report came in at 3.0%, just above the top end of my estimate at 2.7%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.1%. These figures are below the annualized rate (3.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will remain near 3.0%. I have seen some indicators that show companies started spending significantly right after the Election. This should result in what I call TrumpFlation. When everyone is building and investing and acquiring, inflation must go up. The only thing that will keep the annualized figure from soaring is the first four months of 2024 also had high inflation figures.
As a side note, the 8-month streak of monthly CPI being at 0.20% or lower has ended.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann

INFLATION UPDATE

JANUARY 17, 2025 – The December report came in at 2.9%, exactly where the data indicated and above my estimate at 2.6%-2.7%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will be 2.7%-2.9%.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 8 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann

INTEREST RATES, BITCOIN, AND THE ECONOMY

JANUARY 11, 2025 – Regarding interest rates, the 30-year US Treasury Bond yield should easily surpass 5% (specifically, 5.18%) this year. I said over the past few months that the number of Fed Fund Rate cuts will be minimal. The market has said such and Powell is doing as the market instructs.
ECONOMY – I see that my November 8th post said no more economy updates. It provided the simple way to predict the economy 6 months into the future. With the DOW peaking in December, the economy has ZERO chance of being in a recession during the first half of this year. GDP forecasts are calling for continued growth over 2% during the first two quarters. For a recession to occur, we will need BOTH the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP readings to be negative. The only way I see that happening is for a worldwide shutdown to occur like happened 5 years (!!! time flies eh!!!) ago. Otherwise, virtually no chance of a recession in 2025. We will see what the DOW says come June.
BITCOIN – My July 3rd post said the next up move would take Bitcoin over $100,000. Bitcoin closed at $57k that day. It peaked at $108k. That was a nice ride for us crypto investors. On November 8th, I said Bitcoin would hit $100k-$190k in 2025. We already got the lower end taken care of. I think $130-$150k will be the low end of this next up wave.
I said the following in my August 2nd post:
GOLD & SILVER – The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely.
Gold peaked over $2700 (I sold my high school ring when it was at that level…ironically when my parents bought it gold was at an all-time high over $800/ounce!) and silver over $35. I am waiting for the current corrections to finish before I take long positions again.
That’s all for 2025 forecasts. Best of luck to everyone.
Shalom,
The Mann

DOW 2025 FORECAST

JANUARY 11, 2025 – To be quick and to the point, I don’t have a forecast for the stock market for this year. Things just aren’t as clear as they have been over the past 3 years. The last 3 years were pretty easy to forecast. You didn’t even need my analysis. You could have simply done the opposite of what 99% of economists were saying to do:) As they say, weathermen are so grateful that economists exist:)
In summary, go back to my January 9, 2024 post about the DOW. It peaked on December 4th at 45,074. I had provided how the Elliott Waves for the DOW would play out and the top could be at the specific targets of 44,214, 44,256, 44,298, and 45,598. I also said the Bull Market had 6 months left with 9-15 months likely. The current top occurred 11 months later.
Although, this forecast wasn’t exactly perfect like my election forecast, I think it was pretty darn close.
As with my election forecasts, I am mulling over foregoing future stock market forecasts. The goal when I started this blog was to help people see how useful the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) and Socionomics can be in forecasting the future. Personally, I believe I have proven my point. Albeit, most people will never follow EWT or Socionomics. I have used them to guide my life for 45 years now. I have no complaints. Much better than listening to economists and pundits:)
A few months ago, I believe I discovered the Holy Grail of stock trading. It only took me 50+ years to find something like this. So, I am going to focus on it from here on. Putting my entire retirement on the line. And wondering if some rich person wants to pay me several million dollars for an exclusive to this trade:) We shall see. I believe it is worth way more than that though. My contact info can surely be found on the web:)
Please visit ElliottWave.Com (Robert Prechter’s service…do not try out any other services claiming to follow the EWT). I can only lead you all to this way of forecasting the markets and investing based on it. It is up to you from here.
Best of luck. Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann

INFLATION UPDATE

DECEMBER 12, 2024 – The November report came in at 2.7%, slightly below my estimate at 2.8%-3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.7%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be 2.6%-2.7%. In the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 7 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Happy Holidays to all.
Shalom,
The Mann

FINRA ENDS PANDEMIC EXEMPTION

DECEMBER 4, 2024 – Between this and the new administration demanding government workers be in the office 5 days a week, the demand for office buildings may rebound. Personally, every 100,000sf+ multi-tenant office building appraisal (buildings are typically of 1970s and 1980s construction….old and outdated they say) I have reviewed over the past two years has had occupancy from 96%-100%. Demand remains high for those that must use office space for their business.
Shalom,
The Mann
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FINRA ending the pandemic exemption for home office inspections could be a real game changer for remote work in the banking and broader financial services industry.

“Work-from-home regulations for banks are changing, and some of the industry’s biggest players would rather bring employees in five days a week than make the effort to comply—including making regular inspections of workers’ homes.”
During the pandemic, brokerage industry watchdog the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), suspended rules on workplace inspections to make it easier for banks to allow their employees to work from home. The agency is now moving back to its pre-pandemic requirements for monitoring workplaces, meaning some home offices will have to be registered with regulators and remotely inspected at least every three years under a new pilot program.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-don-t-want-inspect-093400950.html

INFLATION UPDATE

NOVEMBER 15, 2024 – The October report came in at 2.6%, in line with my estimate at 2.6%. ((NOTE: Per the way CPI was calculated in 1980, inflation is actually 10.3%)). The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.1%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.6%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be between 2.8% and 3.0% over the next two months. Then in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 6 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much some catching up to do. And Powell confirmed such this week when he said they are in no rush to cut rates. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann

POLLSTER BIAS TO THE LEFT

NOVEMBER 12, 2024 – This is a nice summary of how bad the pollsters were. And facts showing how they are extremely biased towards the Democrats. As I said in my final post about the election, you are simply not facing reality if you think political polls aren’t 100%+ biased in favor of the Dems. We should RIP these pollsters. But, we won’t. They are owned by the Fake News Media and that will bring them back for the lemming followers.
Shalom,
The Mann
https://capitalresearch.org/article/agents-of-influence-the-pitiful-presidential-pollsters/