MARCH 12, 2025 – The February report came in at 2.8%, below my estimate at 3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.7%. These figures are at or above the annualized rate (2.8%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain steady. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I am thinking 2.6%-2.8%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
Tag Archives: CPI
INFLATION UPDATE
FEBRUARY 13, 2025 – The January report came in at 3.0%, just above the top end of my estimate at 2.7%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.1%. These figures are below the annualized rate (3.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will remain near 3.0%. I have seen some indicators that show companies started spending significantly right after the Election. This should result in what I call TrumpFlation. When everyone is building and investing and acquiring, inflation must go up. The only thing that will keep the annualized figure from soaring is the first four months of 2024 also had high inflation figures.
As a side note, the 8-month streak of monthly CPI being at 0.20% or lower has ended.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
JANUARY 17, 2025 – The December report came in at 2.9%, exactly where the data indicated and above my estimate at 2.6%-2.7%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will be 2.7%-2.9%.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 8 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
DECEMBER 12, 2024 – The November report came in at 2.7%, slightly below my estimate at 2.8%-3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.7%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be 2.6%-2.7%. In the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 7 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Happy Holidays to all.
Shalom,
The Mann
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 7 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Happy Holidays to all.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
NOVEMBER 15, 2024 – The October report came in at 2.6%, in line with my estimate at 2.6%. ((NOTE: Per the way CPI was calculated in 1980, inflation is actually 10.3%)). The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.1%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.6%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be between 2.8% and 3.0% over the next two months. Then in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 6 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much some catching up to do. And Powell confirmed such this week when he said they are in no rush to cut rates. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
MY LAST ECONOMY UPDATE
NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – As with my election forecast, I think this will be my final economy post. For different reasons though. I believe I have made the point clear that all you need to do to know where the economy is going is to watch the stock market. I believe that is still the Dow 30 Industrials. Albeit, I will watch over time to see if the NASDAQ 100 takes over as the better indicator. For now, I do not see that happening.
So, as I have said numerous times before, the stock market is forecasting 6 months into the future. Right now, the market is working in May 2025. With the Dow at an all-time high, we are assured that there will be no recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2025. And since it takes two consecutive negative GDP figures to get a recession, the odds of a recession next year are getting very slim.
3rd Quarter GDP came in at a super strong +2.8% (remember, anything above 0.5%-0.7% is incredible strong). 4th Quarter GDP is currently forecast to be above +2.0%.
Based on the early August downturn in the markets, we might have some kind of hiccup in the 1st Quarter of 2025. It won’t result in a negative GDP though.
So, I leave you with this last post on the economy as you now know how easy it is to forecast. The best part is you don’t need to watch a thousand indicators like ISM, M-2, PPI, CPI, Consumer Sentiment Index, yield curve blah blah blah. Economists follow all of that and, as my step-daughter says about weathermen, it must be nice to get paid to be right only 30% of the time. LOL They do all of this work and analysis only to be wrong.
For the past 2.5 years since the still not recognized Recession of early 2022, I have showed you what the stock market has said about the economy and it has been 100% correct. The vast majority of economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. I don’t try to take credit for being right the past 2.5 years. Why should I? I simply followed what the stock market said and it was the market that was right all along.
The one thing I will take credit for is I forecast that about a dozen recession predictors would fail this time around. Some of these indicators had perfect records for over 50+ years. So, I was out on a limb saying that one after another was going fail this time around. I still have yet to explain in detail how I knew that. Maybe one day. The point is not even those (still) very good indicators are worth following. The stock market does everything for you. It is that simple. As they say, KISS.
So, for FREE, you know all you need to know about future economic conditions for the remainder of your life. You do not need to waste your time reading or listening to economists and pundits or even doing your own research and analysis. Now that is a great deal for such an important forecast!
I am always here if you want to discuss anything. When someone asks me to look at something specific, I usually do it for them. As I have said, for some reason I was born to forecast the future. It is just what I love to do.
A stock market post is forthcoming.
As an aside, it has been fun to watch all of the pollsters make up excuses for being wrong. Truly pitiful to be honest. One pollster said ‘I think people….blah blah blah.’ I about jumped out of my chair yelling ‘you think’?!?!? Why in the heck didn’t you ask people why they did such and such!!!!!!! You have one job and you don’t do it? You are going to guess? It is a different era for sure. I was brought up in an era where when you said something you better have the proof to back it up. Oh well.
Thanks for the messages from millions of readers…ok dozens:)
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
OCTOBER 12, 2024 – The September report came in at 2.4%, in line with my estimated 2.4%-2.5%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.5%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.9%. These figures are slightly below the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or decline slightly. The data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. I think it will be there or higher.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 5 straight months.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%-4.6%. It was recently cut to 5.0%. The Fed has some catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 5 straight months.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%-4.6%. It was recently cut to 5.0%. The Fed has some catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION AND ECONOMY UPDATES
FEBRUARY 12, 2024 – The January report came in at 3.1%, just below my forecast of 3.2%-3.3%. and above the consensus estimate of 2.9%.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.8%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.7% next month. Like last month, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.0%-3.1% for next month’s figure.
ECONOMY – We have had 6 straight quarters of above 2% GDP growth since the recession in the first half of 2022 ended. The last two quarters have been above 3% (!) and some forecasts expect another 3%+ figure for the First Quarter of 2024. With annual population growth around 0.7%, any GDP growth above that amount is exceptional. The chance of a recession occurring this year remains slim to nil. It certainly won’t occur in the first half of this year.
STOCKS – The Dow 30 continues its march towards 40,000. I never did see anyone else predict 40,000 this year. I suspect there are a few others like me out there somewhere. As they saay, never count your chickens before they hatch. 38k+ is not 40k. But, the stock market is saying the economy this Summer should be extremely strong.
The recession mongers couldn’t have been more wrong for the past 20 months. They will continue to be wrong into the foreseeable future.
Shalom,
The Mann
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.8%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.7% next month. Like last month, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.0%-3.1% for next month’s figure.
ECONOMY – We have had 6 straight quarters of above 2% GDP growth since the recession in the first half of 2022 ended. The last two quarters have been above 3% (!) and some forecasts expect another 3%+ figure for the First Quarter of 2024. With annual population growth around 0.7%, any GDP growth above that amount is exceptional. The chance of a recession occurring this year remains slim to nil. It certainly won’t occur in the first half of this year.
STOCKS – The Dow 30 continues its march towards 40,000. I never did see anyone else predict 40,000 this year. I suspect there are a few others like me out there somewhere. As they saay, never count your chickens before they hatch. 38k+ is not 40k. But, the stock market is saying the economy this Summer should be extremely strong.
The recession mongers couldn’t have been more wrong for the past 20 months. They will continue to be wrong into the foreseeable future.
Shalom,
The Mann
R.I.P. RECESSION PREDICTORS – YOU WERE DEAD WRONG!
DECEMBER 15, 2023 – First off, happy birthday to my dear wife.
Back in April and June, I mentioned that the wave theory I follow showed a strong rally ahead. It would require us breaking through the all-time highs by a wide margin. This week the Dow 30 achieved new highs and is above 37,000 for the first time ever. 40k and possibly 44k in 2024 are on the table. They have been for over 6 months.
With the information below it is time to 100% emphatically declare anyone that has forecast a recession for the past 18 months and into 2024 dead wrong. Their analysis is totally in error. Just fess up and admit with hat in hand you have no clue what you were talking about. You will feel better:) On to where the data stands and what it is telling us.
BANKS – To date, we have had two bank closures that I am aware of. One was strange as it was not FDIC-insured. We will be ending the year much closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people. I think we will be able to say the same next December.
As for CRE loan defaults, I have dealt with about 5 bad loans. There has been no consistency as to why the loans went south. I am seeing nothing that indicates a lot of foreclosures nor anything specific to a property type.
Amazingly, the Regional Bank Index (KRE) is up 58% from its yearly low and is back above where it was before the SVB/SBNY closings. Remember, buy when there is blood in the streets. It worked again.
To reiterate, the market is saying that it does not believe there will be a CRE loan debacle for banks. Either not many CRE loans will default and/or banks are well prepared and capitalized to handle the defaults.
HOUSING – Home prices have been up all year and the rate of appreciation is increasing. It isn’t much. That is a good sign as it can be sustained into 2024.
The Homebuilders Stock Index was up over 5% one day this week and is now up an incredible 62% (!)from last year’s lows. On top of that, this is an all-time high.
Those who forecast a crash in the housing market continue to be way off the mark. As I said all along, 7% interest rates are nothing to worry about.
INTEREST RATES – Bonds bottomed on October 23rd. A strong rally has dropped rates by about 100bp already. A minor correction should start soon. Then after the new year, we will continue the decline in interest rates. The target is about 25-125bp lower than we are today.
INFLATION – The December report came in at 3.1%, well below my forecast of 3.6%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.9%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower. However, continue reading.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 3.5%-3.6%. The January report should show annual CPI for 2023 to be around 3.5%. Then from the February report on into the Summer, the CPI should crumble towards 2%.
SUMMARY – With the Dow 30, bank, and housing stocks at their highs, the markets are saying all should be well through the first half of 2024. The economy is supposed to be looking good in an Election Year. That looks to be the case again.
I will reprint this statement from a post a few months ago: I put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025. The first year of the president cycle often sees an economic downturn. I suspect that a year from now the broken-clock recession mongers will have given up and admitted the economy is strong, et al. Just in time to be wrong again:)
Happy Hannukah, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
AUGUST 11, 2023 – The August report came in at 3.3%, just below my forecast of 3.4%-3.5%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.1%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.4%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (3.3%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should be range bound for awhile.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 3.5%-3.6%. I like the data and am confident the next reading will be in that range or a tick lower like this month.
Through the October report, the annual CPI figure should be about as boring as a Miami weather forecast – 88 degrees/77 degrees, 88/77, 87/77, 88/76…I expect annual CPI to trend around 3.5% (plus or minus 0.1%-0.2%) through the October reading.
As an aside, the market is telling the Federal Reserve not to raise the Fed Fund Rate at its September meeting.
Til next month’s report.
Shalom,
The Mann