MAY 14, 2025 – The April report came in at 2.3%, right in the middle of the range that the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.3%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.3%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase slightly. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark. There is a chance it may stay at 2.3%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do.
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: Inflation
INFLATION UPDATE
APRIL 11, 2025 – The March report came in at 2.4%, at the low end of what the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 5.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.9%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase. The data is predicting a reading of 2.2%-2.4% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
MARCH 12, 2025 – The February report came in at 2.8%, below my estimate at 3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.7%. These figures are at or above the annualized rate (2.8%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain steady. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I am thinking 2.6%-2.8%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
INFLATION UPDATE
FEBRUARY 13, 2025 – The January report came in at 3.0%, just above the top end of my estimate at 2.7%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.1%. These figures are below the annualized rate (3.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will remain near 3.0%. I have seen some indicators that show companies started spending significantly right after the Election. This should result in what I call TrumpFlation. When everyone is building and investing and acquiring, inflation must go up. The only thing that will keep the annualized figure from soaring is the first four months of 2024 also had high inflation figures.
As a side note, the 8-month streak of monthly CPI being at 0.20% or lower has ended.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
JANUARY 17, 2025 – The December report came in at 2.9%, exactly where the data indicated and above my estimate at 2.6%-2.7%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will be 2.7%-2.9%.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 8 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
DECEMBER 12, 2024 – The November report came in at 2.7%, slightly below my estimate at 2.8%-3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.7%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be 2.6%-2.7%. In the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 7 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Happy Holidays to all.
Shalom,
The Mann
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 7 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Happy Holidays to all.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
NOVEMBER 15, 2024 – The October report came in at 2.6%, in line with my estimate at 2.6%. ((NOTE: Per the way CPI was calculated in 1980, inflation is actually 10.3%)). The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.1%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.6%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be between 2.8% and 3.0% over the next two months. Then in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 6 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much some catching up to do. And Powell confirmed such this week when he said they are in no rush to cut rates. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
OCTOBER 12, 2024 – The September report came in at 2.4%, in line with my estimated 2.4%-2.5%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.5%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.9%. These figures are slightly below the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or decline slightly. The data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. I think it will be there or higher.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 5 straight months.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%-4.6%. It was recently cut to 5.0%. The Fed has some catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 5 straight months.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%-4.6%. It was recently cut to 5.0%. The Fed has some catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION AND ECONOMY UPDATES
FEBRUARY 12, 2024 – The January report came in at 3.1%, just below my forecast of 3.2%-3.3%. and above the consensus estimate of 2.9%.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.8%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.7% next month. Like last month, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.0%-3.1% for next month’s figure.
ECONOMY – We have had 6 straight quarters of above 2% GDP growth since the recession in the first half of 2022 ended. The last two quarters have been above 3% (!) and some forecasts expect another 3%+ figure for the First Quarter of 2024. With annual population growth around 0.7%, any GDP growth above that amount is exceptional. The chance of a recession occurring this year remains slim to nil. It certainly won’t occur in the first half of this year.
STOCKS – The Dow 30 continues its march towards 40,000. I never did see anyone else predict 40,000 this year. I suspect there are a few others like me out there somewhere. As they saay, never count your chickens before they hatch. 38k+ is not 40k. But, the stock market is saying the economy this Summer should be extremely strong.
The recession mongers couldn’t have been more wrong for the past 20 months. They will continue to be wrong into the foreseeable future.
Shalom,
The Mann
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.8%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.7% next month. Like last month, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.0%-3.1% for next month’s figure.
ECONOMY – We have had 6 straight quarters of above 2% GDP growth since the recession in the first half of 2022 ended. The last two quarters have been above 3% (!) and some forecasts expect another 3%+ figure for the First Quarter of 2024. With annual population growth around 0.7%, any GDP growth above that amount is exceptional. The chance of a recession occurring this year remains slim to nil. It certainly won’t occur in the first half of this year.
STOCKS – The Dow 30 continues its march towards 40,000. I never did see anyone else predict 40,000 this year. I suspect there are a few others like me out there somewhere. As they saay, never count your chickens before they hatch. 38k+ is not 40k. But, the stock market is saying the economy this Summer should be extremely strong.
The recession mongers couldn’t have been more wrong for the past 20 months. They will continue to be wrong into the foreseeable future.
Shalom,
The Mann
VARIOUS FORECASTS FOR 2024
JANUARY 13, 2024 – No one took me up on my offer to ask me to forecast something…anything. However, I have found a web site that holds forecasting contests on an ongoing basis. The main contest for this year has 36 questions. I won’t bore you with all of them. But, I will list my initial forecasts for a few questions you might find pertinent. I will likely change my %’s weekly or monthly. Here goes….The percentage after the question is my forecast.
Will the S&P 500 Index go up over 2024? 90%
Will annual US Core Inflation be above 3% in December 2024? 32%
Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? 4%
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? 54%…this one is a tossup. A key word is ABOVE 4%. If it included 4%, I would be much higher on my %.
There are several questions Re Trump and the Election and other political issues. I will just stick with economic questions here.
We shall see how I do. It is nice to finally be measured on how accurate my forecasts will be. I will let you know the results when the contest is over – I believe that will be early next year.
Shalom,
The Mann
Will the S&P 500 Index go up over 2024? 90%
Will annual US Core Inflation be above 3% in December 2024? 32%
Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? 4%
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? 54%…this one is a tossup. A key word is ABOVE 4%. If it included 4%, I would be much higher on my %.
There are several questions Re Trump and the Election and other political issues. I will just stick with economic questions here.
We shall see how I do. It is nice to finally be measured on how accurate my forecasts will be. I will let you know the results when the contest is over – I believe that will be early next year.
Shalom,
The Mann