MAY 16, 2024 – The March report came in at 3.4%, at low end of my forecast of 3.4%-3.6% and below the consensus estimate of 3.5%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 6.7%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.8%. These figures are above the annualized rate (3.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or higher for awhile. The data is predicting a reading between 3.4% and 3.6% next month. I think this reasonable.
The Fed’s December statement that they expect to lower interest rates 3 times in 2024 looks to be inaccurate. The market is expecting one reduction – maybe in September or December.
It appears to me that although the Fed states their CPI target is 2% they are actually keeping it in 3.0-3.5% range on purpose.
Shalom,
The Mann

PS For those who read to the end, a tidbit of amazing information. By the Year 2100, the largest Age Group in the European Union will be 85 years and older. It won’t even be close. The second largest Age Group (55-59yo) will be about 60% the size. If you wonder why the world is going to robotics (Amazon has more robots than human employees now), it is because we simply won’t have enough human workers. The working age population worldwide is projected to decline beginning around 2050.