INFLATION UPDATE
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do.
Shalom,
The Mann
After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.
Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl
MARCH 14, 2025 – The following is from the Appraisal Institute’s ‘Appraisal Now’ email newsletter. The first time I saw regulators focus on Appraisal Review was during the 2005-2010 Financial Crisis. This is the second time. As such, appraisers should include more expense comparable data specifically (especially re Insurance!). Reviewers should focus more intently on expenses. Trust me, with bank examiners being given this guidance they are going to be laser focused on expenses in the Income Approach!! My experience is about 50% of appraisers provide a table of expense comparables with the individual expenses listed and then an analysis of each for estimating the individual subject expenses. About 50% do not provide any support and maybe will say maintenance typically ranges from $0.50 to $1.50/sf and I conclude at X. That is not support. I encourage those appraisers to step up their game. Because if examiners come across those appraisal reports with no detailed support, they will have that bank or credit union remove that appraiser from their approved list! And bank examiners only see black and white. They are not appraisers. They will see those appraisals with a table of 4 or 5 expense comparables and individual expenses listed. Then they will see those reports that do not have such tables. The latter is in trouble. Obviously, you should also have a table of subject actuals for the past 1-3 years, when available. Just my advice from 33 years of being in the bank appraisal review world and dealing with examiners and regulators.
Shalom,
The Mann
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Bank Examiners Highlight Key Appraisal Issues for 2025
Recent industry meetings between bank chief appraisers and bank examiner policy specialists have brought to light several key issues that appraisers should be aware of in 2025. These discussions reflect the evolving expectations and regulatory scrutiny surrounding appraisals, particularly in the banking sector. Below are the primary points of emphasis that emerged from these meetings.
Appraisal Quality Remains a Top Concern
Bank examiners continue to stress the importance of appraisal quality, underscoring the need for well-supported valuations that withstand regulatory and client scrutiny. Ensuring compliance with professional standards, proper market analysis, and credible adjustments remain critical in maintaining confidence in appraisal reports.
The Ongoing Concern Over Engaged Appraisers Not Signing Reports
A recurring complaint in these discussions—brought up annually—is the issue of appraisers engaged for assignments not signing their reports. This raises concerns about accountability, potential outsourcing issues, and the integrity of appraisal reports. Examiners urge banks and appraisal firms to reinforce best practices and ensure that the responsible appraiser is clearly identified in every report.
Data Center Appraisal Issues Persist
Data center valuations continue to pose challenges, with bank examiners revisiting concerns from previous years. These properties have unique valuation factors, including high infrastructure costs, evolving technology, and variable market demand. Appraisers working in this niche should stay updated on emerging valuation methodologies and market trends to address examiner expectations.
Ongoing Scrutiny of Participation Deals
Participation deals remain an area of focus, as they were last year. The complexity of these deals can introduce valuation challenges and potential risk exposure for financial institutions. Examiners urge appraisers to ensure transparency, provide thorough documentation, and carefully analyze risk factors when handling such assignments.
Increased Expectation for Reviewers to Challenge Assumptions
Another significant takeaway is that examiners expect review appraisers to question and push back on key assumptions made in appraisal reports. This aligns with a broader push for stronger due diligence and critical analysis. Appraisers should be prepared for increased scrutiny of their market assumptions, income projections, and comparable selection.
Heightened Focus on Expenses, Particularly Insurance Costs
Bank examiners also emphasized the need for greater attention to expenses in appraisal reports, particularly related to insurance. Rising insurance costs have become a growing concern, impacting property valuations and financial risk assessments. Appraisers should ensure that expense projections, including insurance, reflect current market conditions and provide adequate justification.
What This Means for Appraisers
With these continued and emerging concerns, appraisers should take proactive steps to ensure their reports meet heightened expectations. Strengthening report quality, addressing recurring industry concerns, and preparing for increased review scrutiny will help appraisers navigate the evolving regulatory landscape in 2025.
FEBRUARY 13, 2025 – The January report came in at 3.0%, just above the top end of my estimate at 2.7%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.1%. These figures are below the annualized rate (3.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will remain near 3.0%. I have seen some indicators that show companies started spending significantly right after the Election. This should result in what I call TrumpFlation. When everyone is building and investing and acquiring, inflation must go up. The only thing that will keep the annualized figure from soaring is the first four months of 2024 also had high inflation figures.
As a side note, the 8-month streak of monthly CPI being at 0.20% or lower has ended.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
JANUARY 17, 2025 – The December report came in at 2.9%, exactly where the data indicated and above my estimate at 2.6%-2.7%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will be 2.7%-2.9%.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 8 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
JANUARY 11, 2025 – Regarding interest rates, the 30-year US Treasury Bond yield should easily surpass 5% (specifically, 5.18%) this year. I said over the past few months that the number of Fed Fund Rate cuts will be minimal. The market has said such and Powell is doing as the market instructs.
ECONOMY – I see that my November 8th post said no more economy updates. It provided the simple way to predict the economy 6 months into the future. With the DOW peaking in December, the economy has ZERO chance of being in a recession during the first half of this year. GDP forecasts are calling for continued growth over 2% during the first two quarters. For a recession to occur, we will need BOTH the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP readings to be negative. The only way I see that happening is for a worldwide shutdown to occur like happened 5 years (!!! time flies eh!!!) ago. Otherwise, virtually no chance of a recession in 2025. We will see what the DOW says come June.
BITCOIN – My July 3rd post said the next up move would take Bitcoin over $100,000. Bitcoin closed at $57k that day. It peaked at $108k. That was a nice ride for us crypto investors. On November 8th, I said Bitcoin would hit $100k-$190k in 2025. We already got the lower end taken care of. I think $130-$150k will be the low end of this next up wave.
I said the following in my August 2nd post:
GOLD & SILVER – The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely.
Gold peaked over $2700 (I sold my high school ring when it was at that level…ironically when my parents bought it gold was at an all-time high over $800/ounce!) and silver over $35. I am waiting for the current corrections to finish before I take long positions again.
That’s all for 2025 forecasts. Best of luck to everyone.
Shalom,
The Mann