JANUARY 17, 2024 – The December report came in at 2.9%, exactly where the data indicated and above my estimate at 2.6%-2.7%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will be 2.7%-2.9%.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 8 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
Category Archives: Mann Overboard
After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.
Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl
INTEREST RATES, BITCOIN, AND THE ECONOMY
JANUARY 11, 2025 – Regarding interest rates, the 30-year US Treasury Bond yield should easily surpass 5% (specifically, 5.18%) this year. I said over the past few months that the number of Fed Fund Rate cuts will be minimal. The market has said such and Powell is doing as the market instructs.
ECONOMY – I see that my November 8th post said no more economy updates. It provided the simple way to predict the economy 6 months into the future. With the DOW peaking in December, the economy has ZERO chance of being in a recession during the first half of this year. GDP forecasts are calling for continued growth over 2% during the first two quarters. For a recession to occur, we will need BOTH the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP readings to be negative. The only way I see that happening is for a worldwide shutdown to occur like happened 5 years (!!! time flies eh!!!) ago. Otherwise, virtually no chance of a recession in 2025. We will see what the DOW says come June.
BITCOIN – My July 3rd post said the next up move would take Bitcoin over $100,000. Bitcoin closed at $57k that day. It peaked at $108k. That was a nice ride for us crypto investors. On November 8th, I said Bitcoin would hit $100k-$190k in 2025. We already got the lower end taken care of. I think $130-$150k will be the low end of this next up wave.
I said the following in my August 2nd post:
GOLD & SILVER – The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely.
Gold peaked over $2700 (I sold my high school ring when it was at that level…ironically when my parents bought it gold was at an all-time high over $800/ounce!) and silver over $35. I am waiting for the current corrections to finish before I take long positions again.
That’s all for 2025 forecasts. Best of luck to everyone.
Shalom,
The Mann
DOW 2025 FORECAST
JANUARY 11, 2025 – To be quick and to the point, I don’t have a forecast for the stock market for this year. Things just aren’t as clear as they have been over the past 3 years. The last 3 years were pretty easy to forecast. You didn’t even need my analysis. You could have simply done the opposite of what 99% of economists were saying to do:) As they say, weathermen are so grateful that economists exist:)
In summary, go back to my January 9, 2024 post about the DOW. It peaked on December 4th at 45,074. I had provided how the Elliott Waves for the DOW would play out and the top could be at the specific targets of 44,214, 44,256, 44,298, and 45,598. I also said the Bull Market had 6 months left with 9-15 months likely. The current top occurred 11 months later.
Although, this forecast wasn’t exactly perfect like my election forecast, I think it was pretty darn close.
As with my election forecasts, I am mulling over foregoing future stock market forecasts. The goal when I started this blog was to help people see how useful the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) and Socionomics can be in forecasting the future. Personally, I believe I have proven my point. Albeit, most people will never follow EWT or Socionomics. I have used them to guide my life for 45 years now. I have no complaints. Much better than listening to economists and pundits:)
A few months ago, I believe I discovered the Holy Grail of stock trading. It only took me 50+ years to find something like this. So, I am going to focus on it from here on. Putting my entire retirement on the line. And wondering if some rich person wants to pay me several million dollars for an exclusive to this trade:) We shall see. I believe it is worth way more than that though. My contact info can surely be found on the web:)
Please visit ElliottWave.Com (Robert Prechter’s service…do not try out any other services claiming to follow the EWT). I can only lead you all to this way of forecasting the markets and investing based on it. It is up to you from here.
Best of luck. Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
In summary, go back to my January 9, 2024 post about the DOW. It peaked on December 4th at 45,074. I had provided how the Elliott Waves for the DOW would play out and the top could be at the specific targets of 44,214, 44,256, 44,298, and 45,598. I also said the Bull Market had 6 months left with 9-15 months likely. The current top occurred 11 months later.
Although, this forecast wasn’t exactly perfect like my election forecast, I think it was pretty darn close.
As with my election forecasts, I am mulling over foregoing future stock market forecasts. The goal when I started this blog was to help people see how useful the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) and Socionomics can be in forecasting the future. Personally, I believe I have proven my point. Albeit, most people will never follow EWT or Socionomics. I have used them to guide my life for 45 years now. I have no complaints. Much better than listening to economists and pundits:)
A few months ago, I believe I discovered the Holy Grail of stock trading. It only took me 50+ years to find something like this. So, I am going to focus on it from here on. Putting my entire retirement on the line. And wondering if some rich person wants to pay me several million dollars for an exclusive to this trade:) We shall see. I believe it is worth way more than that though. My contact info can surely be found on the web:)
Please visit ElliottWave.Com (Robert Prechter’s service…do not try out any other services claiming to follow the EWT). I can only lead you all to this way of forecasting the markets and investing based on it. It is up to you from here.
Best of luck. Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
DECEMBER 12, 2024 – The November report came in at 2.7%, slightly below my estimate at 2.8%-3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.7%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be 2.6%-2.7%. In the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 7 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Happy Holidays to all.
Shalom,
The Mann
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 7 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Happy Holidays to all.
Shalom,
The Mann
FINRA ENDS PANDEMIC EXEMPTION
DECEMBER 4, 2024 – Between this and the new administration demanding government workers be in the office 5 days a week, the demand for office buildings may rebound. Personally, every 100,000sf+ multi-tenant office building appraisal (buildings are typically of 1970s and 1980s construction….old and outdated they say) I have reviewed over the past two years has had occupancy from 96%-100%. Demand remains high for those that must use office space for their business.
Shalom,
The Mann
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FINRA ending the pandemic exemption for home office inspections could be a real game changer for remote work in the banking and broader financial services industry.
“Work-from-home regulations for banks are changing, and some of the industry’s biggest players would rather bring employees in five days a week than make the effort to comply—including making regular inspections of workers’ homes.”
During the pandemic, brokerage industry watchdog the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), suspended rules on workplace inspections to make it easier for banks to allow their employees to work from home. The agency is now moving back to its pre-pandemic requirements for monitoring workplaces, meaning some home offices will have to be registered with regulators and remotely inspected at least every three years under a new pilot program.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-don-t-want-inspect-093400950.html
Shalom,
The Mann
==================================
FINRA ending the pandemic exemption for home office inspections could be a real game changer for remote work in the banking and broader financial services industry.
“Work-from-home regulations for banks are changing, and some of the industry’s biggest players would rather bring employees in five days a week than make the effort to comply—including making regular inspections of workers’ homes.”
During the pandemic, brokerage industry watchdog the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), suspended rules on workplace inspections to make it easier for banks to allow their employees to work from home. The agency is now moving back to its pre-pandemic requirements for monitoring workplaces, meaning some home offices will have to be registered with regulators and remotely inspected at least every three years under a new pilot program.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-don-t-want-inspect-093400950.html
INFLATION UPDATE
NOVEMBER 15, 2024 – The October report came in at 2.6%, in line with my estimate at 2.6%. ((NOTE: Per the way CPI was calculated in 1980, inflation is actually 10.3%)). The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.1%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.6%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. However, the data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think it will be between 2.8% and 3.0% over the next two months. Then in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we may see a significant decline.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 6 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much some catching up to do. And Powell confirmed such this week when he said they are in no rush to cut rates. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
POLLSTER BIAS TO THE LEFT
NOVEMBER 12, 2024 – This is a nice summary of how bad the pollsters were. And facts showing how they are extremely biased towards the Democrats. As I said in my final post about the election, you are simply not facing reality if you think political polls aren’t 100%+ biased in favor of the Dems. We should RIP these pollsters. But, we won’t. They are owned by the Fake News Media and that will bring them back for the lemming followers.
Shalom,
The Mann
https://capitalresearch.org/article/agents-of-influence-the-pitiful-presidential-pollsters/
Shalom,
The Mann
https://capitalresearch.org/article/agents-of-influence-the-pitiful-presidential-pollsters/
STOCK MARKET UPDATE
NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – IN 2023, with the Dow around 34,000, I was the only person I could find predicting 40,000 in 2024. In May 2024, I posted the following:
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TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
————————————————————
The Dow hit a low of 38,499 on August 5th. Right in the target range forecast above. Today the Dow has crossed 44,000 for the first time. Right around the targets identified over 6 months ago. I am pleasantly surprised how many analysts now (try to) use the Elliott Wave Theory. 44 years ago probably only a handful of people in the world used it. I have relied on it my whole adult life. The above shows it works.
With Trump winning, I will be watching to see if this Bull Market can be extended beyond the ranges forecast above. I won’t get into that right now. Maybe I will do that the last week of December when I make my various 2025 forecasts.
I will leave you with a forecast that Bitcoin will go to $100,000-$190,000 in 2025. A wide range yes. But, this is a volatile asset with a relatively short period of historical data and trends to analyze. I am heavily invested in it and silver which should go above $40.
Enjoy the Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
——————————————————–
TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
————————————————————
The Dow hit a low of 38,499 on August 5th. Right in the target range forecast above. Today the Dow has crossed 44,000 for the first time. Right around the targets identified over 6 months ago. I am pleasantly surprised how many analysts now (try to) use the Elliott Wave Theory. 44 years ago probably only a handful of people in the world used it. I have relied on it my whole adult life. The above shows it works.
With Trump winning, I will be watching to see if this Bull Market can be extended beyond the ranges forecast above. I won’t get into that right now. Maybe I will do that the last week of December when I make my various 2025 forecasts.
I will leave you with a forecast that Bitcoin will go to $100,000-$190,000 in 2025. A wide range yes. But, this is a volatile asset with a relatively short period of historical data and trends to analyze. I am heavily invested in it and silver which should go above $40.
Enjoy the Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
MY LAST ECONOMY UPDATE
NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – As with my election forecast, I think this will be my final economy post. For different reasons though. I believe I have made the point clear that all you need to do to know where the economy is going is to watch the stock market. I believe that is still the Dow 30 Industrials. Albeit, I will watch over time to see if the NASDAQ 100 takes over as the better indicator. For now, I do not see that happening.
So, as I have said numerous times before, the stock market is forecasting 6 months into the future. Right now, the market is working in May 2025. With the Dow at an all-time high, we are assured that there will be no recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2025. And since it takes two consecutive negative GDP figures to get a recession, the odds of a recession next year are getting very slim.
3rd Quarter GDP came in at a super strong +2.8% (remember, anything above 0.5%-0.7% is incredible strong). 4th Quarter GDP is currently forecast to be above +2.0%.
Based on the early August downturn in the markets, we might have some kind of hiccup in the 1st Quarter of 2025. It won’t result in a negative GDP though.
So, I leave you with this last post on the economy as you now know how easy it is to forecast. The best part is you don’t need to watch a thousand indicators like ISM, M-2, PPI, CPI, Consumer Sentiment Index, yield curve blah blah blah. Economists follow all of that and, as my step-daughter says about weathermen, it must be nice to get paid to be right only 30% of the time. LOL They do all of this work and analysis only to be wrong.
For the past 2.5 years since the still not recognized Recession of early 2022, I have showed you what the stock market has said about the economy and it has been 100% correct. The vast majority of economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. I don’t try to take credit for being right the past 2.5 years. Why should I? I simply followed what the stock market said and it was the market that was right all along.
The one thing I will take credit for is I forecast that about a dozen recession predictors would fail this time around. Some of these indicators had perfect records for over 50+ years. So, I was out on a limb saying that one after another was going fail this time around. I still have yet to explain in detail how I knew that. Maybe one day. The point is not even those (still) very good indicators are worth following. The stock market does everything for you. It is that simple. As they say, KISS.
So, for FREE, you know all you need to know about future economic conditions for the remainder of your life. You do not need to waste your time reading or listening to economists and pundits or even doing your own research and analysis. Now that is a great deal for such an important forecast!
I am always here if you want to discuss anything. When someone asks me to look at something specific, I usually do it for them. As I have said, for some reason I was born to forecast the future. It is just what I love to do.
A stock market post is forthcoming.
As an aside, it has been fun to watch all of the pollsters make up excuses for being wrong. Truly pitiful to be honest. One pollster said ‘I think people….blah blah blah.’ I about jumped out of my chair yelling ‘you think’?!?!? Why in the heck didn’t you ask people why they did such and such!!!!!!! You have one job and you don’t do it? You are going to guess? It is a different era for sure. I was brought up in an era where when you said something you better have the proof to back it up. Oh well.
Thanks for the messages from millions of readers…ok dozens:)
Shalom,
The Mann
A POST-MORTEM OF MY ELECTION ANALYSIS
NOVEMBER 6, 2024 – This is not a gloat post for the Trump side. All along, I have tried to present the facts and note where I think there is a gray area. That is basically what I do when explaining anything I do. So, here goes a summary of what we have learned over the past 3 months.
This was my final forecast:
“I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.” Although AZ, MI, and NV still have not been called, they all look like they will go to Trump. That will give him 312 electoral votes. I will take this perfect count and retire from forecasting elections:)
WHAT I GOT WRONG – Michigan and not thinking the results would be known Election Night. As I noted in my final analysis, Michigan had conflicting indicators. I switched to Harris and probably shouldn’t have. The States greatly improved their vote counting. That is a good thing to be wrong about.
SUMMARY – My entire adult life I have told people to do their own analysis and make their own decisions when it comes to investing or trading in stocks, commodities, real estate, et al.
Never listen to the talking heads like Jim Cramer or Goldman Sachs or anyone. I have never been wrong betting against what the great Goldman Sachs has forecast. They just get paid alot more than me:)
I worked extremely hard over the past 3 months on my election analysis. It was exhausting. I did all I could to account for the poll margins of errors, for the now validated 3 times argument that Republicans get underrepresented in the polls, the thought that those Republicans not answering pollsters would vote against Trump, illegal immigrant votes, et al. In the end, it looks like all that hard work got it exactly right. As I get paid the big bucks to provide my analyses, I think I will go out on this forecast. The amount of work was enormous. (Thanks to everyone that has sent me thanks for me sharing my analyses. I appreciate that. This is a labor of love for sure.) Maybe a rich person will pay me millions to provide my analyses privately to him/her:) Hopefully, I showed that you can do your own research and do better than the pundits and the economists and the analysts that get paid the big bucks. You can do it!
The one blunt thing I will say is that if you don’t accept as a FACT that the pollsters are equal to the Fake News Media in being owned by the Democrats, you are just not facing reality. It is funny to hear Democrats curse the pollsters this morning when it was them that told the pollsters to make it look like Harris was winning! Hypocrites and sore losers.
HOUSE – This won’t be settled for days or a week as expected.
I still think neither party will win by more than 3 seats. The word over night was the Dems were making some surprised pickups and might win the House. There was limited data for me to analyze so no way could I forecast a specific result. I could only conclude a plus or minus 3 seat difference for each party. We shall see how it ends up.
SENATE – All along, I said this was a 100% certainty that the GOP would get the 51-seat majority. I honestly did not try to make a specific count. I was simply focused on one of the parties getting to 51. The GOP already has 52 and could get up to 55. The high end might make it such that in 2026 the GOP will be certain to maintain the Senate. Please don’t double-dog dare me to make a forecast about that election lol
Hopefully, we will now eradicate DIE, ESG, the climate change hoax, men playing in women’s sports and being in their locker rooms, anything woke, et al. Americans spoke loud and clear about their disapproval of all that junk.
Lastly, Viva Fossil Fuels!!!
Shalom,
The Mann