MAY 14, 2025 – The April report came in at 2.3%, right in the middle of the range that the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.3%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.3%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase slightly. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark. There is a chance it may stay at 2.3%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do.
Shalom,
The Mann
Category Archives: Mann Overboard
After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.
Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl
ECONOMY UPDATE
MAY 2, 2025 – It is really difficult to write anything about the economy after the passing of KC Conway, CRE, MAI this week. KC was a great guy. Brilliant mind. The last 20+ years of his career he turned his focus to being an economist. Everyone liked KC. A rare individual. He will be missed by our industry and obviously his family and friends. RIP my friend.
Very briefly, 1st Quarter GDP came in at a -0.3%. As I mentioned in my April 5th post, and last August, the stock market was forecasting a huge negative surprise for this quarter. 99%+ of us had no clue what would cause it. That doesn’t matter. The stock market just says it will happen.
My last email to KC went unanswered. I now know why. I was wondering how much of the GDP reading was attributed to the extreme import trade as companies rushed to beat the tariffs. KC never replied. I have since heard it was probably around 2.0%. So, the actual GDP would have been around +1.7%.
As the import trade will be the reverse in the 2nd Quarter and companies will have stopped ordering from overseas, this will ‘falsely’ inflate the GDP by a similar amount. Early indications are around +2%. This might fall as the economy will definitely be weakening into the Summer. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
That said, the market has forecast significant weakness at the beginning of the Fall. Things should be much clearer by then.
As an aside, the DOW Industrials never did trigger a Bear Market. They came close like last August.
That’s enough. Remember, to enjoy EVERY day of your life. We do not know when it will be our last.
Shalom,
The Mann
Very briefly, 1st Quarter GDP came in at a -0.3%. As I mentioned in my April 5th post, and last August, the stock market was forecasting a huge negative surprise for this quarter. 99%+ of us had no clue what would cause it. That doesn’t matter. The stock market just says it will happen.
My last email to KC went unanswered. I now know why. I was wondering how much of the GDP reading was attributed to the extreme import trade as companies rushed to beat the tariffs. KC never replied. I have since heard it was probably around 2.0%. So, the actual GDP would have been around +1.7%.
As the import trade will be the reverse in the 2nd Quarter and companies will have stopped ordering from overseas, this will ‘falsely’ inflate the GDP by a similar amount. Early indications are around +2%. This might fall as the economy will definitely be weakening into the Summer. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
That said, the market has forecast significant weakness at the beginning of the Fall. Things should be much clearer by then.
As an aside, the DOW Industrials never did trigger a Bear Market. They came close like last August.
That’s enough. Remember, to enjoy EVERY day of your life. We do not know when it will be our last.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
APRIL 11, 2025 – The March report came in at 2.4%, at the low end of what the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 5.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.9%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase. The data is predicting a reading of 2.2%-2.4% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY UPDATE
APRIL 4, 2025 – OK, it is tough for me to stay away when a nice bear market is going on:) It is almost exactly 5 years to the last time we saw a falling knife market. Back then, I believe I was the first and only person to predict well in advance that we would see the first ever 2,000- and 3,000-point down days in the Dow 30. Today, we had another 2,000-point down day. I have constantly explained that the market predicts things 6 months into the future. So, let’s see what it has been saying about the economy.
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
INCREASED FOCUS ON APPRAISALS AND APPRAISAL REVIEWS
MARCH 14, 2025 – The following is from the Appraisal Institute’s ‘Appraisal Now’ email newsletter. The first time I saw regulators focus on Appraisal Review was during the 2005-2010 Financial Crisis. This is the second time. As such, appraisers should include more expense comparable data specifically (especially re Insurance!). Reviewers should focus more intently on expenses. Trust me, with bank examiners being given this guidance they are going to be laser focused on expenses in the Income Approach!! My experience is about 50% of appraisers provide a table of expense comparables with the individual expenses listed and then an analysis of each for estimating the individual subject expenses. About 50% do not provide any support and maybe will say maintenance typically ranges from $0.50 to $1.50/sf and I conclude at X. That is not support. I encourage those appraisers to step up their game. Because if examiners come across those appraisal reports with no detailed support, they will have that bank or credit union remove that appraiser from their approved list! And bank examiners only see black and white. They are not appraisers. They will see those appraisals with a table of 4 or 5 expense comparables and individual expenses listed. Then they will see those reports that do not have such tables. The latter is in trouble. Obviously, you should also have a table of subject actuals for the past 1-3 years, when available. Just my advice from 33 years of being in the bank appraisal review world and dealing with examiners and regulators.
Shalom,
The Mann
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Bank Examiners Highlight Key Appraisal Issues for 2025
Recent industry meetings between bank chief appraisers and bank examiner policy specialists have brought to light several key issues that appraisers should be aware of in 2025. These discussions reflect the evolving expectations and regulatory scrutiny surrounding appraisals, particularly in the banking sector. Below are the primary points of emphasis that emerged from these meetings.
Appraisal Quality Remains a Top Concern
Bank examiners continue to stress the importance of appraisal quality, underscoring the need for well-supported valuations that withstand regulatory and client scrutiny. Ensuring compliance with professional standards, proper market analysis, and credible adjustments remain critical in maintaining confidence in appraisal reports.
The Ongoing Concern Over Engaged Appraisers Not Signing Reports
A recurring complaint in these discussions—brought up annually—is the issue of appraisers engaged for assignments not signing their reports. This raises concerns about accountability, potential outsourcing issues, and the integrity of appraisal reports. Examiners urge banks and appraisal firms to reinforce best practices and ensure that the responsible appraiser is clearly identified in every report.
Data Center Appraisal Issues Persist
Data center valuations continue to pose challenges, with bank examiners revisiting concerns from previous years. These properties have unique valuation factors, including high infrastructure costs, evolving technology, and variable market demand. Appraisers working in this niche should stay updated on emerging valuation methodologies and market trends to address examiner expectations.
Ongoing Scrutiny of Participation Deals
Participation deals remain an area of focus, as they were last year. The complexity of these deals can introduce valuation challenges and potential risk exposure for financial institutions. Examiners urge appraisers to ensure transparency, provide thorough documentation, and carefully analyze risk factors when handling such assignments.
Increased Expectation for Reviewers to Challenge Assumptions
Another significant takeaway is that examiners expect review appraisers to question and push back on key assumptions made in appraisal reports. This aligns with a broader push for stronger due diligence and critical analysis. Appraisers should be prepared for increased scrutiny of their market assumptions, income projections, and comparable selection.
Heightened Focus on Expenses, Particularly Insurance Costs
Bank examiners also emphasized the need for greater attention to expenses in appraisal reports, particularly related to insurance. Rising insurance costs have become a growing concern, impacting property valuations and financial risk assessments. Appraisers should ensure that expense projections, including insurance, reflect current market conditions and provide adequate justification.
What This Means for Appraisers
With these continued and emerging concerns, appraisers should take proactive steps to ensure their reports meet heightened expectations. Strengthening report quality, addressing recurring industry concerns, and preparing for increased review scrutiny will help appraisers navigate the evolving regulatory landscape in 2025.
INFLATION UPDATE
MARCH 12, 2025 – The February report came in at 2.8%, below my estimate at 3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.7%. These figures are at or above the annualized rate (2.8%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain steady. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I am thinking 2.6%-2.8%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
INFLATION UPDATE
FEBRUARY 13, 2025 – The January report came in at 3.0%, just above the top end of my estimate at 2.7%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.1%. These figures are below the annualized rate (3.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will remain near 3.0%. I have seen some indicators that show companies started spending significantly right after the Election. This should result in what I call TrumpFlation. When everyone is building and investing and acquiring, inflation must go up. The only thing that will keep the annualized figure from soaring is the first four months of 2024 also had high inflation figures.
As a side note, the 8-month streak of monthly CPI being at 0.20% or lower has ended.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
JANUARY 17, 2025 – The December report came in at 2.9%, exactly where the data indicated and above my estimate at 2.6%-2.7%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will be 2.7%-2.9%.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 8 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
INTEREST RATES, BITCOIN, AND THE ECONOMY
JANUARY 11, 2025 – Regarding interest rates, the 30-year US Treasury Bond yield should easily surpass 5% (specifically, 5.18%) this year. I said over the past few months that the number of Fed Fund Rate cuts will be minimal. The market has said such and Powell is doing as the market instructs.
ECONOMY – I see that my November 8th post said no more economy updates. It provided the simple way to predict the economy 6 months into the future. With the DOW peaking in December, the economy has ZERO chance of being in a recession during the first half of this year. GDP forecasts are calling for continued growth over 2% during the first two quarters. For a recession to occur, we will need BOTH the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP readings to be negative. The only way I see that happening is for a worldwide shutdown to occur like happened 5 years (!!! time flies eh!!!) ago. Otherwise, virtually no chance of a recession in 2025. We will see what the DOW says come June.
BITCOIN – My July 3rd post said the next up move would take Bitcoin over $100,000. Bitcoin closed at $57k that day. It peaked at $108k. That was a nice ride for us crypto investors. On November 8th, I said Bitcoin would hit $100k-$190k in 2025. We already got the lower end taken care of. I think $130-$150k will be the low end of this next up wave.
I said the following in my August 2nd post:
GOLD & SILVER – The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely.
Gold peaked over $2700 (I sold my high school ring when it was at that level…ironically when my parents bought it gold was at an all-time high over $800/ounce!) and silver over $35. I am waiting for the current corrections to finish before I take long positions again.
That’s all for 2025 forecasts. Best of luck to everyone.
Shalom,
The Mann
DOW 2025 FORECAST
JANUARY 11, 2025 – To be quick and to the point, I don’t have a forecast for the stock market for this year. Things just aren’t as clear as they have been over the past 3 years. The last 3 years were pretty easy to forecast. You didn’t even need my analysis. You could have simply done the opposite of what 99% of economists were saying to do:) As they say, weathermen are so grateful that economists exist:)
In summary, go back to my January 9, 2024 post about the DOW. It peaked on December 4th at 45,074. I had provided how the Elliott Waves for the DOW would play out and the top could be at the specific targets of 44,214, 44,256, 44,298, and 45,598. I also said the Bull Market had 6 months left with 9-15 months likely. The current top occurred 11 months later.
Although, this forecast wasn’t exactly perfect like my election forecast, I think it was pretty darn close.
As with my election forecasts, I am mulling over foregoing future stock market forecasts. The goal when I started this blog was to help people see how useful the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) and Socionomics can be in forecasting the future. Personally, I believe I have proven my point. Albeit, most people will never follow EWT or Socionomics. I have used them to guide my life for 45 years now. I have no complaints. Much better than listening to economists and pundits:)
A few months ago, I believe I discovered the Holy Grail of stock trading. It only took me 50+ years to find something like this. So, I am going to focus on it from here on. Putting my entire retirement on the line. And wondering if some rich person wants to pay me several million dollars for an exclusive to this trade:) We shall see. I believe it is worth way more than that though. My contact info can surely be found on the web:)
Please visit ElliottWave.Com (Robert Prechter’s service…do not try out any other services claiming to follow the EWT). I can only lead you all to this way of forecasting the markets and investing based on it. It is up to you from here.
Best of luck. Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
In summary, go back to my January 9, 2024 post about the DOW. It peaked on December 4th at 45,074. I had provided how the Elliott Waves for the DOW would play out and the top could be at the specific targets of 44,214, 44,256, 44,298, and 45,598. I also said the Bull Market had 6 months left with 9-15 months likely. The current top occurred 11 months later.
Although, this forecast wasn’t exactly perfect like my election forecast, I think it was pretty darn close.
As with my election forecasts, I am mulling over foregoing future stock market forecasts. The goal when I started this blog was to help people see how useful the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) and Socionomics can be in forecasting the future. Personally, I believe I have proven my point. Albeit, most people will never follow EWT or Socionomics. I have used them to guide my life for 45 years now. I have no complaints. Much better than listening to economists and pundits:)
A few months ago, I believe I discovered the Holy Grail of stock trading. It only took me 50+ years to find something like this. So, I am going to focus on it from here on. Putting my entire retirement on the line. And wondering if some rich person wants to pay me several million dollars for an exclusive to this trade:) We shall see. I believe it is worth way more than that though. My contact info can surely be found on the web:)
Please visit ElliottWave.Com (Robert Prechter’s service…do not try out any other services claiming to follow the EWT). I can only lead you all to this way of forecasting the markets and investing based on it. It is up to you from here.
Best of luck. Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann