SEPTEMBER 16, 2026 – The Fed did as the market instructed and raised the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp today.
Over a year ago, my August 12, 2025 post said it was more likely that an increase would occur than a decrease. I am confident I was the only person who said an increase was coming. A year later we got it.
How did I make such a forecast when nearly 100% of the pundits forecast further declines? I have mentioned it many times before – the Elliott Wave Theory. The EWT has let me tell you for the past 18 months that interest rates would soar well over the 5% level. And they have done just that.
ECONOMY – An interesting disagreement between two recession predictors may occur soon. The stock market has clearly said there will be no recession through the 1st Quarter of 2027. In my August 1, 2025 post, I mentioned the yield curve is another recession predictor. Back then it was at -35bp. Today it is around +65bp. I mentioned that when it gets to +100bp we are in a recession. The good part is it moves slow. So, we know well ahead of time if it says we are in a recession. 13 months later it has moved 100bp and is 35bp from the 100bp target.
I hope I don’t have to make a call between these two indicators. If I do, I will side with the stock market. It is a reflection of how the smart money sees the economy in 6 months. The yield curve is simply a math equation.
To avoid this conflict of indicators, either the stock market needs to drop soon and significantly or the yield curve needs to flatten out.
As always, we shall see. No need for me to opine now. We have time.
Shalom,
The Mann
Category Archives: Mann Overboard
After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.
Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl
AGI & THE SINGULARITY ARE DEFINITELY HERE
SEPTEMBER 13, 2026 – Just a quick note for what is the most important moment in human history since 3200 BC when the Sumerians invented writing. The powers-to-be are going public with what some of us knew last year – AGI and the Singularity now exist. Please research them so you know where we are and where we are headed.
My analogy is AI is caveman math and AGI is differential equations. AI is irrelevant. AGI just solved the second of the Millenium Prize Math problems. Every day from now on AGI will be solving things that no human that has ever lived has solved.
This will be great for medicine. Not so great for those doing evil – OpenAI shut down the account of a scientist that appeared to be making a biological weapon. The latter cannot be stopped once people start making their own LLMs and avoid using ChatGPT and Perplexity and Claude and such that are monitored by the big companies.
I just read that 80% of the advances in AI are now created by AI itself. This will continue to speed up exponentially. And, AGI is FAR FAR FAR superior to AI.
Musk and Altman just called for a slowing down of AI. Thankfully, Trump said no to that. Government involvement never helps progress.
As I said last year, 2025 (and 2026) will go down as the most important years in human history. 99.999999999999% of the public don’t know that and won’t know it til 2030 or 2035. You do. Do something with that knowledge and you will be ahead of the masses.
Now the real fun in this world begins….it will be difficult to keep up with the advances. Literally, they won’t just be occurring daily…it will become hourly. Us Exponentialists have talked about the Singularity and the future not needing companies or fiat money or humans to work. I read that it is possible already to launch a new company in minutes. Why have a company if someone can create the same thing in minutes?
This time next year we will be so far advanced that 2026 will look archaic. By 2030, we will laugh at the things we were doing in 2026.
The train has left the station. Enjoy the ride or be left behind.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 12, 2026 – August CPI came in at 3.4%. The monthly reading was +0.32%. It is looking like the index is getting back to being predictable. The data had forecast 3.2% to 3.5%. For the next report, the data expects 3.1% to 3.6%.
TRIVIA – I found this interesting. Maybe you will, too. When carrying your phone and it is giving you your location, it does NOT rely on GPS or mapping. It relies on time! The time it takes for the speed of light to travel from your phone to 4 different satellites is used to make 4 circles. The intersection of these circles provides your exact latitude, longitude, and altitude. Your location is based on time, not space. Go figure:)
Shalom,
The Mann
TRIVIA – I found this interesting. Maybe you will, too. When carrying your phone and it is giving you your location, it does NOT rely on GPS or mapping. It relies on time! The time it takes for the speed of light to travel from your phone to 4 different satellites is used to make 4 circles. The intersection of these circles provides your exact latitude, longitude, and altitude. Your location is based on time, not space. Go figure:)
Shalom,
The Mann
EARLY ELECTION LOOK
SEPTEMBER 6, 2026 – After the perfect forecast for the 2024 Presidential Election, I said I would not predict future elections. Best to go out on a perfect forecast:)
So, this is just a quick, cursory forecast. I might update it before the election.
HOUSE – Impossible to predict as there simply is not enough data for the individual contests. I think this will flip to the Dems 222-214 with 1 or 2 Independents.
SENATE – Right now, it is 50-47 Dems with 3 races just too close to call. I think it will end up 52-48 for Dems. I am surprised to see Ohio and Texas (!!!) going with the Dem candidates.
If the above happens, Americans get what they have preferred in my lifetime – a government gridlock. They do not trust either party to have total control.
9/11 is this Friday – please take a moment to think about our losses and how life can change in a second.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
AUGUST 16, 2026 – July CPI came in at 3.4%. The monthly reading was -0.01%. This was the first monthly reading smaller than 0.35%. Last year only two months were above 0.35%. The index is experiencing extreme volatility this year. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. For the next report, the data expects 3.2% to 3.5%. I don’t think we can rely too much on the data for the remainder of this year.
FUTURE ALTERNATIVE LAND USES – Just some things for you to mull over:) What will we do with all of the roads when all car travel occurs by air (A company has a Jetson’s car out now)? Will we give those right-of-way back to the adjacent landowners? Those are who we took it from.
What will we do with all of the airports when Transporters become the norm for travel? Where will that great big graveyard for planes be located? One already exists in the desert of Arizona or New Mexico. Guess we can expand that one. I suppose railways and trains won’t be needed either. Nor all of those 53′ trucks.
What will we do with all of the closed power plans and unneeded power lines? Free energy for everyone is within 1-2 generations. Fission and Fusion are obvious targets. One company has developed a way to make natural gas out of air and water and has started up its first machine in a desert north of Los Angeles. Their goal is free energy for all within one generation. This initial test is producing energy 95% cheaper than normal rates.
Are the wealthy prepared for diamonds, gold, silver, titanium, etc to become close to worthless? A company is hard at work on mining asteroids. There are asteroids with 10x or 100x or 1000x the quantity of precious metals than our entire planet has. In the mid-1800s, aluminum was more valuable than gold. Things change.
Many of us won’t live to see the above occur. But, your kids and grandkids definitely will. “The future is so bright, I have to wear shades.” – Timbuk 3
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY UPDATE
AUGUST 2, 2026 – The 2nd Quarter GDP came in at +1.5%. Below market expectations. Excluding some unusual items, it was closer to +4.0%. But, I don’t like to exclude unusual items because every quarter has them:) Early readings for the 3rd Quarter are around +5%. I can’t imagine a reading that high. Albeit, it sounds like some of the items that caused the 2nd Quarter reading to be low might be made up to the upside in the 3rd Quarter. Regardless, the most important thing the market is telling us is there is ZERO chance of a recession thru at least the 1st Quarter of 2027. Those forecasting a recession since around 2022 maintain their perfect record:)
Another stat that caught my eye was unemployment claims at 187,000. This is the LOWEST since 1969. And we have way more workers almost 60 years later. All of the crying about AI taking jobs appears to be propaganda as usual.
As for people saying ‘that must be AI,’ I just don’t get it. We started ‘Photoshopping’ pictures and videos almost 30 years ago. To now look at a picture or video and think it might be altered??? Where have people been for the past 30 years of fake pics and videos???
I will leave now before I rant rant rant lol
Shalom,
The Mann
Another stat that caught my eye was unemployment claims at 187,000. This is the LOWEST since 1969. And we have way more workers almost 60 years later. All of the crying about AI taking jobs appears to be propaganda as usual.
As for people saying ‘that must be AI,’ I just don’t get it. We started ‘Photoshopping’ pictures and videos almost 30 years ago. To now look at a picture or video and think it might be altered??? Where have people been for the past 30 years of fake pics and videos???
I will leave now before I rant rant rant lol
Shalom,
The Mann
FED FUNDS RATE
JULY 27, 2026 – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.9%-4.1%. It is set at 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed will not change rates this week. However, the market is suggesting a rate increase before yearend may be needed. Right now, the odds are strong for an increase at the September meeting. As an aside, the 30-Year Treasury Bond rate is the highest it has been since 2007! That is amazing. Anyone expecting mortgage rates to go down is expecting wrong.
AMAZING STAT OF THE DAY – I recently read that of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 in 1996 only 165 exist today. Around 2/3rds of the 500 largest companies in America 30 years ago have disappeared!!! That is incredible. However, I would not be surprised if 80%-90% of today’s S&P 500 companies are gone in just 20 years. As Jeff Bezos said years ago, one day Amazon will be gone.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
JULY 15, 2026 – May CPI came in at 3.5%. The monthly reading was -0.35%. The largest negative reading since COVID. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. For the next report, the data expects 3.8% to 3.9%. I don’t think we can rely too much on the data for the remainder of this year.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE & CONGRATS TO ELON THE WORLD’S FIRST TRILLIONAIRE!!!!!!
JUNE 11, 2026 – May CPI came in at 4.2%. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. However, the data expected 4.0%-4.4%. The figure came in dead center of that range. For the next report, the data expects 4.4% to 4.8%.
FED FUNDS RATE – Almost a year late, the market has come to realize an increase is the most likely when a change is made. However, no change is expected at the next meeting.
ELON MUSK – People have been jealous of the rich for ages. Many people say no one should be a billionaire. It will be funny to watch their heads explode on Friday June 12th when Elon becomes the world’s first trillionaire. I estimate he may, in fact, be worth up to $3 trillion that day. Congrats to him and all his accomplishments. He has revolutionized 3 separate industries and is CEO of 2 of the Top 10 companies in the world. Insanely impressive. And to think probably 99%+ of his wealth is held in stock. He has very little in liquid assets.
Shalom,
The Mann
FED FUNDS RATE – Almost a year late, the market has come to realize an increase is the most likely when a change is made. However, no change is expected at the next meeting.
ELON MUSK – People have been jealous of the rich for ages. Many people say no one should be a billionaire. It will be funny to watch their heads explode on Friday June 12th when Elon becomes the world’s first trillionaire. I estimate he may, in fact, be worth up to $3 trillion that day. Congrats to him and all his accomplishments. He has revolutionized 3 separate industries and is CEO of 2 of the Top 10 companies in the world. Insanely impressive. And to think probably 99%+ of his wealth is held in stock. He has very little in liquid assets.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS RATE UPDATES
MAY 13, 2026 – April CPI came in at 3.8%. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. The data expects CPI to be 4.0%-4.4% in the next report.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market still has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Nothing has changed since the events started with Iran. Talk of a rate increase has picked up significantly. It is only about 9 months after I suggested such:) Why was it possible to predict a possible rate increase 9 months ago when the market was giving it a 0% chance of occurring? Simply put, the Elliott Wave Theory.
The 30-year Treasury Bond yield is over 5% and has increased by 100bp (!!!) since The Fed started lowering rates. Any day now it should exceed the October 2023 high (5.12%) which will place it at a 19-year high (July 2007). We all remember what occurred in 2008-2009.
GENOME – I have the results of my genome sequencing and will discuss when I have time. Pretty neat info.
Til next month re the above two items.
Shalom,
The Mann
FED FUNDS RATE – The market still has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Nothing has changed since the events started with Iran. Talk of a rate increase has picked up significantly. It is only about 9 months after I suggested such:) Why was it possible to predict a possible rate increase 9 months ago when the market was giving it a 0% chance of occurring? Simply put, the Elliott Wave Theory.
The 30-year Treasury Bond yield is over 5% and has increased by 100bp (!!!) since The Fed started lowering rates. Any day now it should exceed the October 2023 high (5.12%) which will place it at a 19-year high (July 2007). We all remember what occurred in 2008-2009.
GENOME – I have the results of my genome sequencing and will discuss when I have time. Pretty neat info.
Til next month re the above two items.
Shalom,
The Mann