OCTOBER 3, 2024 – A bit late in getting to this update. We were on vacation in the USVI when Hurrican Helene hit our farm in Aiken, SC. We just got power and water back today after 7 days without. No damage to the house or barn or horses, so no complaints. Part of living in the South is experiencing a 1-2 week power outage every so often. Over 100 dead in South Carolina. This is by far the worst damage to Aiken in its history. Kudos to the linemen that are working 24/7 and first responders and so on. You will never hear me complain about how long it is taking to get power back, etc.
Go up to Easter TN and Western NC where it will be a year or more before some roads and interstates reopen. Entire cities wiped out. Prayers to all affected by the storm.
SENATE – NO CHANGE – This really hasn’t changed in over two months. Only one race matters – Montana. And the GOP candidate is holding a solid 6-8 point lead. The Dems know they will lose the Senate. No race may be 100% certain. But, this one is 99% certain. Basically, there is no way the Dems will have control of all three parts of the government. Only the Republicans have a chance at that.
HOUSE – It looks like this is a total toss-up. A ton of races too close to call. A winner might not be decided until days after the election.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump appears to be back in control of this race. Up by about 1.5%-2%. A small margin of error for the polls. So, let’s give this one back to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Harris is ahead by under one point. However, this is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!.
That is way more than what the polls show Harris up by.
It is time to start getting bold with the predictions:) This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – The Harris lead is about one point. Three of the last four polls have Trump ahead. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This is enough to give this state to Trump right now. Another prediction that is opposite of what the media is showing. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Close with Harris now up by about 0.5%. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. Tough call. But, time to make a call on every state. This one goes from toss-up to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by about 0.5%. Harris has led in only 1 of the last 10 polls. Let’s goal to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – This state has swung back to Trump. He is up by over 1.5%. Trump just had his strongest showing in the latest poll and Harris has led in only 1 of the last 12 polls. A statistical dead heat. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. For now, I will move this one to a tossup. Harris 232 Trump 271
PA – Basically, another dead heat state. Of the last 13 polls, ‘Tie’ has won more than Harris or Trump. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 271
No surprise in saying this election looks like it will go down to the wire and we will not know the winner til days later. That is as of today. Things can firm up one way or another in the next 4+ weeks. But, I doubt it. lol
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
I hope to be back in 2 weeks. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann
Category Archives: Mann Overboard
After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.
Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl
ELECTION UPDATE – We Swing Back To Trump
SEPTEMBER 14, 2024 – We are under two months til the election. It is time to add to this analysis how far off the polls have been in the past two elections. This will likely add some more gray area to the forecast. But, we all know every presidential election is now full of lots of gray area. Lots of 50/50 outcomes.
SENATE – NO CHANGE – This really hasn’t changed in over two months. Only one race matters – Montana. And the GOP candidate is holding a solid 6-7 point lead. The Dems know they will lose the Senate. No race may be 100% certain. But, this one is 99% certain. Basically, there is no way the Dems will have control of all three parts of the government. Only the Republicans have a chance at that.
HOUSE – It looks like this is a total toss-up. A ton of races too close to call. A winner might not be decided until days after the election.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump appears to be back in control of this race. Up by about 1.5%. A small margin of error for the polls. So, let’s give this one back to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Harris is ahead by about one point. However, this is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!.
That is way more than what the polls show Harris up by.
It is time to start getting bold with the predictions:) This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – The Harris lead is down to less than one point. The last four polls average out to a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This is enough to give this state to Trump right now. Another prediction that is opposite of what the media is showing.
Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Close with Harris now up by about 0.5%. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. Tough call. But, time to make a call on every state.
This one goes from toss-up to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Now the closest state. Of the last 8 polls, they each lead in 4 and the total sum is exactly 0.0%. Another dead heat. Let’s goal to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Simply put, the same as NC. A statistical dead heat. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. Give this one to Harris. Harris 248 Trump 271
PA – Basically, another dead heat state. Other than the ridiculous Bloomberg polls, Harris has not led a poll in this state. But, the polls have been ties or Trump by only 1%. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will wimp out and leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 248 Trump 271
No surprise in saying this election looks like it will go down to the wire and we will not know the winner til days later. That is as of today. Things can firm up one way or another in the next 6+ weeks. But, I doubt it. lol
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
I will be back in 2 weeks. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann
SENATE – NO CHANGE – This really hasn’t changed in over two months. Only one race matters – Montana. And the GOP candidate is holding a solid 6-7 point lead. The Dems know they will lose the Senate. No race may be 100% certain. But, this one is 99% certain. Basically, there is no way the Dems will have control of all three parts of the government. Only the Republicans have a chance at that.
HOUSE – It looks like this is a total toss-up. A ton of races too close to call. A winner might not be decided until days after the election.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump appears to be back in control of this race. Up by about 1.5%. A small margin of error for the polls. So, let’s give this one back to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Harris is ahead by about one point. However, this is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!.
That is way more than what the polls show Harris up by.
It is time to start getting bold with the predictions:) This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – The Harris lead is down to less than one point. The last four polls average out to a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This is enough to give this state to Trump right now. Another prediction that is opposite of what the media is showing.
Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Close with Harris now up by about 0.5%. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. Tough call. But, time to make a call on every state.
This one goes from toss-up to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Now the closest state. Of the last 8 polls, they each lead in 4 and the total sum is exactly 0.0%. Another dead heat. Let’s goal to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Simply put, the same as NC. A statistical dead heat. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. Give this one to Harris. Harris 248 Trump 271
PA – Basically, another dead heat state. Other than the ridiculous Bloomberg polls, Harris has not led a poll in this state. But, the polls have been ties or Trump by only 1%. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will wimp out and leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 248 Trump 271
No surprise in saying this election looks like it will go down to the wire and we will not know the winner til days later. That is as of today. Things can firm up one way or another in the next 6+ weeks. But, I doubt it. lol
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
I will be back in 2 weeks. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 12, 2024 – The August report came in at 2.5%, below my estimated 2.6%-2.8%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.9%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (2.5%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area for awhile. The data is predicting a reading between 2.4% and 2.5% next month. I concur with the data.
As a side note, excluding rent CPI, the CPI has been slightly negative over the past four months. For the most part, deflation exists.
The market is telling the Fed to cut their rate by 25bp at the September meeting. As I have explained ad nauseum, the Fed FOLLOWS the market 100% of the time, so a 25bp cut is a near 100% certainty. Like death and taxes:) The odds of a 50bp cut are near zero. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
As a side note, excluding rent CPI, the CPI has been slightly negative over the past four months. For the most part, deflation exists.
The market is telling the Fed to cut their rate by 25bp at the September meeting. As I have explained ad nauseum, the Fed FOLLOWS the market 100% of the time, so a 25bp cut is a near 100% certainty. Like death and taxes:) The odds of a 50bp cut are near zero. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 7, 2024 – After a record 795 days, the yield curve un-inverted on Friday. By now, it seems that most analysts have discovered my observation that this event starts the clock to a recession. Let me be clear that there is no timeframe for when the recession will occur. Albeit, I have observed that once we get to +100bps we have always been right in the middle of the recession.
The stock market has made it clear there is zero chance of a recession by yearend. And, we are likely to make it through the 1st Quarter of 2025 with positive GDP. However, the first significant cracks in the economy will appear in the 1st Quarter.
If the Bear Market has finally begun, then by year end we will know when the recession will start. In the interim, no need to be like economists and pundits and try to predict this or that. Just sit back and let the stock market tell you when, and if, a recession will occur in 2025.
Shalom,
The Mann
The stock market has made it clear there is zero chance of a recession by yearend. And, we are likely to make it through the 1st Quarter of 2025 with positive GDP. However, the first significant cracks in the economy will appear in the 1st Quarter.
If the Bear Market has finally begun, then by year end we will know when the recession will start. In the interim, no need to be like economists and pundits and try to predict this or that. Just sit back and let the stock market tell you when, and if, a recession will occur in 2025.
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
AUGUST 31, 2024 – If the current momentum continues, the election will end up being a landslide for Harris/Walz. But, we have over two months to go and things usually ebb and flow.
SENATE – NO CHANGE FROM 2 WEEKS AGO – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 46 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 3 that are called a tossup by many – MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 3 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – It looks like this is a total toss-up. A ton of races too close to call. A winner might not be decided until days after the election.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states.
AZ – Still a very close state. Let’s not give this to either candidate for now. This was Trump’s four weeks ago and it still appears to lean towards him.
WI – Harris has now pulled ahead by over one point. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – It was Trump’s against Biden. Harris is now up by about two points. Soon this can be called a lock for Harris. Harris 251 Trump 219
NV – Almost as close as AZ. Trump still up slightly. However, last three polls favor Harris. This one is taken from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219
NC – Now the second closest state. A virtual dead heat. Taken away from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219.
GA – Now a dead heat. However, last three polls favor Harris.
Taken away from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219.
PA – It used to be neither could get to 270 without winning PA. That has changed. It is still a close state. But, it now favors Harris. We will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 251 Trump 219
In 2 weeks, I will likely move MI and WI to locks for Harris and remove them from this analysis. That will put us at Harris 251 Trump 219 with 5 toss-up states having 68 electoral votes.
For Harris it is either win PA or win 2 of the other 4 states as long as one of the states is GA or NC.
For Trump he MUST win PA. Beyond that he can either win GA and NC or both AZ and NV combined with GA or NC.
At this time, the odds and trend are favoring Harris.
However, with the GOP nearly 100% assured of winning the Senate, it looks like we will have a split government.
I will be back in 2 weeks to see if Harris’ momentum has continued. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann
SENATE – NO CHANGE FROM 2 WEEKS AGO – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 46 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 3 that are called a tossup by many – MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 3 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – It looks like this is a total toss-up. A ton of races too close to call. A winner might not be decided until days after the election.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states.
AZ – Still a very close state. Let’s not give this to either candidate for now. This was Trump’s four weeks ago and it still appears to lean towards him.
WI – Harris has now pulled ahead by over one point. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – It was Trump’s against Biden. Harris is now up by about two points. Soon this can be called a lock for Harris. Harris 251 Trump 219
NV – Almost as close as AZ. Trump still up slightly. However, last three polls favor Harris. This one is taken from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219
NC – Now the second closest state. A virtual dead heat. Taken away from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219.
GA – Now a dead heat. However, last three polls favor Harris.
Taken away from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219.
PA – It used to be neither could get to 270 without winning PA. That has changed. It is still a close state. But, it now favors Harris. We will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 251 Trump 219
In 2 weeks, I will likely move MI and WI to locks for Harris and remove them from this analysis. That will put us at Harris 251 Trump 219 with 5 toss-up states having 68 electoral votes.
For Harris it is either win PA or win 2 of the other 4 states as long as one of the states is GA or NC.
For Trump he MUST win PA. Beyond that he can either win GA and NC or both AZ and NV combined with GA or NC.
At this time, the odds and trend are favoring Harris.
However, with the GOP nearly 100% assured of winning the Senate, it looks like we will have a split government.
I will be back in 2 weeks to see if Harris’ momentum has continued. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
AUGUST 18, 2024 – In two short weeks, a lot has changed. Almost all of it in favor of Harris/Walz and the Democrats.
SENATE – NO CHANGE FROM 2 WEEKS AGO – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 43 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 6 that are called a tossup by many – NV, AZ, WI, MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 6 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – I haven’t seen much about it so no analysis at this time. As I update this and we get closer to the election I will have a forecast.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states.
AZ – Now the closest state. A true dead heat. Let’s not give this to either candidate for now. This was Trump’s two weeks ago.
WI – Harris has now pulled ahead by about one full point. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – It was Trump’s against Biden. Harris is now up by over one point and that is trending upward. Harris 251 Trump 219
NV – Trump still up by about 2 points. But, getting interesting. Harris 251 Trump 225
NC – Getting into play. Trump still up by over a point. Harris 251 Trump 241.
GA – Trump ahead by a point. For now, we will give it to him.
But, this might change soon. Harris 251 Trump 257.
PA – Neither gets to 270 without winning PA. This remains the sole key state at this point. But, per above, a few other states might become critical soon. Like Arizona, this one is even. A total toss-up.
Another winning scenario is arising for Harris. If she wins Arizona and flips Georgia, she will be at 278 and not need to win Pennsylvania. Just a bit early to put this up there and remove Pennsylvania as the do-or-die state for both candidates.
At this time, the odds and trend are favoring Harris.
I will update this as things become noteworthy. Obviously, the most important thing you can do is vote. Regardless of who you vote for. Just do what us Americans should always do – vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
SENATE – NO CHANGE FROM 2 WEEKS AGO – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 43 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 6 that are called a tossup by many – NV, AZ, WI, MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 6 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – I haven’t seen much about it so no analysis at this time. As I update this and we get closer to the election I will have a forecast.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states.
AZ – Now the closest state. A true dead heat. Let’s not give this to either candidate for now. This was Trump’s two weeks ago.
WI – Harris has now pulled ahead by about one full point. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – It was Trump’s against Biden. Harris is now up by over one point and that is trending upward. Harris 251 Trump 219
NV – Trump still up by about 2 points. But, getting interesting. Harris 251 Trump 225
NC – Getting into play. Trump still up by over a point. Harris 251 Trump 241.
GA – Trump ahead by a point. For now, we will give it to him.
But, this might change soon. Harris 251 Trump 257.
PA – Neither gets to 270 without winning PA. This remains the sole key state at this point. But, per above, a few other states might become critical soon. Like Arizona, this one is even. A total toss-up.
Another winning scenario is arising for Harris. If she wins Arizona and flips Georgia, she will be at 278 and not need to win Pennsylvania. Just a bit early to put this up there and remove Pennsylvania as the do-or-die state for both candidates.
At this time, the odds and trend are favoring Harris.
I will update this as things become noteworthy. Obviously, the most important thing you can do is vote. Regardless of who you vote for. Just do what us Americans should always do – vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
AUGUST 15, 2024 – The June report came in at 2.9%, below the consensus estimate of 3.2%. I had estimated 2.8%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.0%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area for awhile. The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.8% next month. I concur with the data.
The market is now expecting 125bp in rate reductions from September through January. That seems reasonable with unemployment rising and the CPI below 3%. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market is now expecting 125bp in rate reductions from September through January. That seems reasonable with unemployment rising and the CPI below 3%. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION ANALYSIS
AUGUST 4 , 2024 – We are about 3 months from Election Day. Here is what I see the polling telling us. Bottomline, the 50/50 country we live in will result in one of the closest elections in history. Much closer than the last two presidential elections.
SENATE – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 43 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 6 that are called a tossup by many – NV, AZ, WI, MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much a Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 6 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – I haven’t seen much about it so no analysis at this time. As I update this and we get closer to the election I will have a forecast.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – Obviously, the popular vote will go Harris. Take out California and New York in 2020 and the popular vote for the other 48 states was almost exactly the same for Biden and Trump. Out of 130 million votes in those 48 states (plus 5 territories and DC) it was Biden with 64,929,105 and Trump with 64,966,301. A 0.06% difference!!! Ant that is why the Founding Fathers designed the Electoral College – so us in the other 48 states don’t have wasted votes as CA and NY would solely dictate the presidential winner in every election. I sure as hell don’t want people in CA and NY selecting anything for me!!!!!!!! Back to a forecast…..
The bottomline right now is whomever wins PA wins the election. That simple as of today.
I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states. 6 are for Trump to lose at this point and 1 is for Harris to lose.
WI – This is the closest of the 7 states and Trump is ahead by a frog’s hair. I am confident this will go to Harris. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – The next closest state. It was Trump’s against Biden. Bloomberg has Harris up by a ridiculous 11. It will go to Harris by a closer margin. Harris 251 Trump 219
AZ and NV – Ignoring the horrible Bloomberg poll (almost always is different than every single other poll), these look pretty much going to Trump. Harris 251 Trump 236
NC – Getting into play. But, still looking pretty much a lock for Trump. Harris 251 Trump 252.
GA – This is has really become a tough state for both sides. Atlanta versus the rest of the state basically. Trump has not been behind in any polls against Biden or now Harris. But, most polls are around +1%-+2%. Biden won by 0.3% in 2020.
PA – Neither gets to 270 without winning PA. If polls hold, Trump wins and gets to 271 or 287. If Harris wins, she gets to 270 or 286. To make it clearer, here are the 4 possible outcomes for GA and PA:
Harris wins BOTH – HARRIS 286 Trump 252
Trump wins BOTH – TRUMP 287 Harris 251
GA (Harris) PA (Trump) – TRUMP 271 Harris 267
GA (Trump) PA (Harris) – HARRIS 270 Trump 268
In all cases above, whomever wins PA wins the election. As of today, I think Trump wins both. But, no doubt, both can go to Harris three months from now.
Lastly, what I wanted to throw out there is the following:
1- GA and PA gets split and the final count is either 270-268 or 271-267.
2 – 1 or 2 faithless electorates refuse to vote for the winning candidate and the final count is either 268-267 or 269-267. Neither candidate gets to 270 to be declared the winner.
3 – 1 or 2 faithless electorates vote opposite of what they are supposed to. Harris’ 270-268 becomes a Trump 270-268 victory. Trump’s 271-267 becomes a 269-269 tie! Or 3 could change votes and give Harris a 270-268 victory.
Knowing how messed up our country has become I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these insane events occur. We would have from Election night to early January when the electoral college votes to endure court cases and lawyers on both sides interpret the constitution differently. Please put me out of my misery now lol
I will update this as things become noteworthy over the next 3 months. Obviously, the most important thing you can do is vote. Regardless of who you vote for. Just do what us Americans should always do – vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
SENATE – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 43 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 6 that are called a tossup by many – NV, AZ, WI, MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much a Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 6 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – I haven’t seen much about it so no analysis at this time. As I update this and we get closer to the election I will have a forecast.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – Obviously, the popular vote will go Harris. Take out California and New York in 2020 and the popular vote for the other 48 states was almost exactly the same for Biden and Trump. Out of 130 million votes in those 48 states (plus 5 territories and DC) it was Biden with 64,929,105 and Trump with 64,966,301. A 0.06% difference!!! Ant that is why the Founding Fathers designed the Electoral College – so us in the other 48 states don’t have wasted votes as CA and NY would solely dictate the presidential winner in every election. I sure as hell don’t want people in CA and NY selecting anything for me!!!!!!!! Back to a forecast…..
The bottomline right now is whomever wins PA wins the election. That simple as of today.
I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states. 6 are for Trump to lose at this point and 1 is for Harris to lose.
WI – This is the closest of the 7 states and Trump is ahead by a frog’s hair. I am confident this will go to Harris. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – The next closest state. It was Trump’s against Biden. Bloomberg has Harris up by a ridiculous 11. It will go to Harris by a closer margin. Harris 251 Trump 219
AZ and NV – Ignoring the horrible Bloomberg poll (almost always is different than every single other poll), these look pretty much going to Trump. Harris 251 Trump 236
NC – Getting into play. But, still looking pretty much a lock for Trump. Harris 251 Trump 252.
GA – This is has really become a tough state for both sides. Atlanta versus the rest of the state basically. Trump has not been behind in any polls against Biden or now Harris. But, most polls are around +1%-+2%. Biden won by 0.3% in 2020.
PA – Neither gets to 270 without winning PA. If polls hold, Trump wins and gets to 271 or 287. If Harris wins, she gets to 270 or 286. To make it clearer, here are the 4 possible outcomes for GA and PA:
Harris wins BOTH – HARRIS 286 Trump 252
Trump wins BOTH – TRUMP 287 Harris 251
GA (Harris) PA (Trump) – TRUMP 271 Harris 267
GA (Trump) PA (Harris) – HARRIS 270 Trump 268
In all cases above, whomever wins PA wins the election. As of today, I think Trump wins both. But, no doubt, both can go to Harris three months from now.
Lastly, what I wanted to throw out there is the following:
1- GA and PA gets split and the final count is either 270-268 or 271-267.
2 – 1 or 2 faithless electorates refuse to vote for the winning candidate and the final count is either 268-267 or 269-267. Neither candidate gets to 270 to be declared the winner.
3 – 1 or 2 faithless electorates vote opposite of what they are supposed to. Harris’ 270-268 becomes a Trump 270-268 victory. Trump’s 271-267 becomes a 269-269 tie! Or 3 could change votes and give Harris a 270-268 victory.
Knowing how messed up our country has become I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these insane events occur. We would have from Election night to early January when the electoral college votes to endure court cases and lawyers on both sides interpret the constitution differently. Please put me out of my misery now lol
I will update this as things become noteworthy over the next 3 months. Obviously, the most important thing you can do is vote. Regardless of who you vote for. Just do what us Americans should always do – vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
STOCK MARKET UPDATE
UPDATE AUGUST 12, 2024 – One of the reasons I have followed the Elliott Wave Theory for 44 years is it has predetermined points where you need to realize a market isn’t going where initially thought and you need to reverse course. Yesterday, the major market indices (except the Russell 2000) crossed lines that said the recent correction was actually part of the ongoing bull market and not the start of a new bear market. This suggests the economy will be strong thru the 1st Quarter of 2025 at a minimum. Right now, I am seeing +2.0%-2.9% estimated for 3rd Quarter GDP. I suspect the 4th Quarter will be equally strong. Too early to see where 1st Quarter 2025 will be. Albeit, I think the market says there will be a bit of a hiccup then.
Gold is at new all-time highs. Silver is struggling, but should go up into the $30’s per ounce. I did take positions in Copper and Natural Gas as they are at lows that over the past 20 years have signal major bottoms. Cryptos have acted well since the downturn 10 days ago. CPI came in at +2.9% today. I will post about that tomorrow. Hope everyone has had a good Summer. – The Mann
AUGUST 2, 2024 – Wow, what a week this was. As everyone should know, I love Bear Markets way more than Bull Markets. It killed me to be all out bullish for the past 2 years. But, I rode the upturn to its fullest I think and sold all my stocks a week ago on Friday July 26th when the Dow was up about 700 points. And this week as 10-Year Treasury Notes and further out went below 4%, I locked in a 4.8% annuity for 3 years. Easier to sleep this weekend and beyond. Albeit, I did leave some play money to play the downside:) Bear markets are quicker and harsher than bull markets. Easy money to be made if the bear market is truly underway. On to some numbers and forecasts. This is going to be VERY LONG as I am going to layout a lot of specific targets for numerous markets. AGAIN NONE OF THIS INVESTMENT ADVICE. Just my hobby of forecasting the future.
One thing that annoys me most about most analysts are they make forecasts and don’t provide a point (aka as a stop-loss) where they say their forecast is wrong and has to be reconsidered. That leaves their followers not knowing what to do when the person they are following has missed a call. I never care when the market crosses a stop-loss point. Yes, it means my analysis was wrong and, if I traded it, I took a loss. But, if you take trades where your expected profit/loss ratio is at least 3-4/1, then the small losses are nothing compared to the large profits.
DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS – The DOW broke below the 39,411 level today that I mentioned would indicate the peak on July 18th was the Bull Market top. The only problem was this was a closing target, not an intraday figure. The DOW closed at 39,737. Also, the wave theory I follow does not clearly show a change in trend. With all other stock indices clearly in a Bear Market, I am going to assume the DOW is, too. If it gets back to 40,061-40,353, I will probably go short with a stop-loss around 41,000. If it is in a Bear Market, it should not see 41,000 again.
NASDAQ – The Bull Market top occurred at 20,691 on July 10. As I predicted a few weeks ago, the DOW has been much stronger than the NASDAQ. There have been several days recently where the DOW was up a few hundred points and the NASDAQ was down a few hundred. First support is around 17,000-17,500. It is very early, but I am thinking the Bear Market might bottom between 10,500 and 13,500. A 35%-49% decline would be moderate for the NASDAQ. In the past, major declines have been over 80%. Right now, it will take a move to a new high to end the Bear Market case. That isn’t ideal. But, sometimes that is all you have. Right now is not an ideal entry point to short the NASDAQ 100 or S&P 500. Although, I think some more carnage lies ahead next week, a rally after that back to anywhere around 19,000 on the NASDAQ 100 would give me a great place to short. I just am not sure it will ever get back to that level. Today’s close was 18,441. A Bear Market doesn’t like to give short-sellers an easy time either:)
RUSSELL 2000 – The Bull Market top actually occurred back in November 2021 at 2,459. The Bear Market rally topped at 2,300 on July 31. Today’s close was 2,109. If I can get a move back to about 2,172 to close a gap on the chart that occurred today, I will go short with a 2,300 stop-loss. My analysis suggests the high end of the Bear Market bottom range is 1,475 with 965 being the bottom end. Two separate wave relationships point to 965. So, I give that most weight. Thus, a short trade initiated at 2,172 would have an expected profit of 697-1,207 points with a stop-loss being at 128 points. That is a 5.5-9.4/1 profit/loss ratio. Those are the kind of trades I like:)
TREASURY BONDS – The rally I have called for continues and accelerated today. The US 30-Year Treasury Bond price closed at just over 125. Around a 4.1% yield. The main target is around 131 or about a 3.5% yield. The high-end price target is about 144 or about a 3.0% yield. I guess if I had to pick a stop-loss point it would be about 120.5.
ECONOMY – I have reiterated many times that economists waste their time trying to forecast the economy when the stock market tells us what is happening 6 months into the future. The market has correctly forecast the strong economy for the past 2 years and already said it will be strong through the end of the year. However, if the market is in a Bear Market, then it is telling us that next January and February will show us an economy in trouble. As I mentioned almost a year ago, a way early indicator was pointing towards a 2025 recession. The market is now pointing that way, too. And the market doesn’t get this wrong. My expectation is that the economists and pundits that have been dead wrong for two years about a recession occurring will start to say no chance of a recession in 2025 because the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates in September and interest rates fall significantly as I have forecast. Also, Trueflation is now down below 1.4%. The pundits will be overwhelming you with how great things are as inflation is tamed and mortgage rates are down, blah blah blah. I do hope they will be bullish right as the recession gets underway. As a reminder, when the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year Bonds) gets to +100bp we will be in a recession. It is down to about -20bp. The lowest I have seen in a year or two. We have lots of lead time to get from -20bp to +100bp. Could that lead time be 6-9 months as the market has indicated? Coincidence? 🙂
UNEMPLOYMENT – On July 1st, I posted it will be 4.4%-4.5% by year end. It went up to 4.3% in today’s report. The whole world now knows about the Sahm Rule (I will let you look it up to see what it is.). Supposedly, it was triggered today. I thought it already had been. I think there is a similar rule with a different name measured in a slightly different way. Everyone talks about its 100% perfect record predicting recessions since 1970 or such. What everyone doesn’t know apparently is that the rule has only a 50% accuracy rate when unemployment rates get adjusted after the initial announcement. A flip of the coin is definitely more accurate than economists and weather forecasters! But, it doesn’t help me in my analysis.
GOLD & SILVER – I am getting tired. If you are still reading, I am sure you are, too:) The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely. I will probably hop on this trade Monday morning.
LASTLY – One last thing came to mind. Over a year ago when the SVB debacle occurred, I posted about buying when no one else wanted to. Everyone predicted 400+ banks to close up and the housing market to crash. Here is what those experts cost you if you didn’t invest in those sectors. Granted no one would be able to buy at the exact low and high. But, the bull moves were as follows – The S&P Regional Index (KRE) bottomed at 34.52 and the recent top was 59.59. A 72% move. Even if you just caught the middle part of the move for a 50% profit remember all of those pundits that told you banks were in trouble. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was around 64 at the time of the SVB event. But, the bull move had started a year earlier at 51. The recent top was an ALL-TIME HIGH at 121.23. Over the past 15 months it went up a measly 89%. If you threw in the towel today, you would have made over 70%. Remember to thank all of those people that have been predicting a housing market crash. And seriously folks, look up on YouTube or wherever the videos from around the SVB event forward and find those analysts that were forecasting armageddon – and NEVER EVER listen to them again!!!
I might be back here sooner than later. I live for bear markets. I get very active when they are occurring. This bear doesn’t hibernate:)
Shalom,
The Mann
FINAL RULE ON AVM QUALITY CONTROL STANDARDS
JULY 25, 2024 – The Federal Agencies have issued the Final Rule on Real Estate Valuations: Quality Control Standards for Automated Valuation Models. Hopefully, you can cut and paste the URL below. If not, go to an Agency website and type in the above words in Search and it should come up.
https://www.fdic.gov/news/financial-institution-letters/2024/final-rule-real-estate-valuations-quality-control-standards?source=govdelivery&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
This guidance was desperately needed because we all know computer models actively seek out the skin color and/or gender of borrowers. Once they find this information and the borrower(s) is not of a specific hated class, then the AVM will apply a -20% adjustment to whatever initial value it generates. If the borrower is of a specific hated class, then obviously no downward adjustment is applied. Who knows, maybe even an upward adjustment is applied heh heh
Yes, sarcasm intended. What a freakin’ joke! Gotta watch out for them darn racist and sexist computer models;)
Shalom,
The Mann
https://www.fdic.gov/news/financial-institution-letters/2024/final-rule-real-estate-valuations-quality-control-standards?source=govdelivery&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
This guidance was desperately needed because we all know computer models actively seek out the skin color and/or gender of borrowers. Once they find this information and the borrower(s) is not of a specific hated class, then the AVM will apply a -20% adjustment to whatever initial value it generates. If the borrower is of a specific hated class, then obviously no downward adjustment is applied. Who knows, maybe even an upward adjustment is applied heh heh
Yes, sarcasm intended. What a freakin’ joke! Gotta watch out for them darn racist and sexist computer models;)
Shalom,
The Mann