APRIL 4, 2025 – OK, it is tough for me to stay away when a nice bear market is going on:) It is almost exactly 5 years to the last time we saw a falling knife market. Back then, I believe I was the first and only person to predict well in advance that we would see the first ever 2,000- and 3,000-point down days in the Dow 30. Today, we had another 2,000-point down day. I have constantly explained that the market predicts things 6 months into the future. So, let’s see what it has been saying about the economy.
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: Bull Market
STOCK MARKET UPDATE
NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – IN 2023, with the Dow around 34,000, I was the only person I could find predicting 40,000 in 2024. In May 2024, I posted the following:
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TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
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The Dow hit a low of 38,499 on August 5th. Right in the target range forecast above. Today the Dow has crossed 44,000 for the first time. Right around the targets identified over 6 months ago. I am pleasantly surprised how many analysts now (try to) use the Elliott Wave Theory. 44 years ago probably only a handful of people in the world used it. I have relied on it my whole adult life. The above shows it works.
With Trump winning, I will be watching to see if this Bull Market can be extended beyond the ranges forecast above. I won’t get into that right now. Maybe I will do that the last week of December when I make my various 2025 forecasts.
I will leave you with a forecast that Bitcoin will go to $100,000-$190,000 in 2025. A wide range yes. But, this is a volatile asset with a relatively short period of historical data and trends to analyze. I am heavily invested in it and silver which should go above $40.
Enjoy the Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
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TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
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The Dow hit a low of 38,499 on August 5th. Right in the target range forecast above. Today the Dow has crossed 44,000 for the first time. Right around the targets identified over 6 months ago. I am pleasantly surprised how many analysts now (try to) use the Elliott Wave Theory. 44 years ago probably only a handful of people in the world used it. I have relied on it my whole adult life. The above shows it works.
With Trump winning, I will be watching to see if this Bull Market can be extended beyond the ranges forecast above. I won’t get into that right now. Maybe I will do that the last week of December when I make my various 2025 forecasts.
I will leave you with a forecast that Bitcoin will go to $100,000-$190,000 in 2025. A wide range yes. But, this is a volatile asset with a relatively short period of historical data and trends to analyze. I am heavily invested in it and silver which should go above $40.
Enjoy the Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
STOCK MARKET UPDATE
UPDATE AUGUST 12, 2024 – One of the reasons I have followed the Elliott Wave Theory for 44 years is it has predetermined points where you need to realize a market isn’t going where initially thought and you need to reverse course. Yesterday, the major market indices (except the Russell 2000) crossed lines that said the recent correction was actually part of the ongoing bull market and not the start of a new bear market. This suggests the economy will be strong thru the 1st Quarter of 2025 at a minimum. Right now, I am seeing +2.0%-2.9% estimated for 3rd Quarter GDP. I suspect the 4th Quarter will be equally strong. Too early to see where 1st Quarter 2025 will be. Albeit, I think the market says there will be a bit of a hiccup then.
Gold is at new all-time highs. Silver is struggling, but should go up into the $30’s per ounce. I did take positions in Copper and Natural Gas as they are at lows that over the past 20 years have signal major bottoms. Cryptos have acted well since the downturn 10 days ago. CPI came in at +2.9% today. I will post about that tomorrow. Hope everyone has had a good Summer. – The Mann
AUGUST 2, 2024 – Wow, what a week this was. As everyone should know, I love Bear Markets way more than Bull Markets. It killed me to be all out bullish for the past 2 years. But, I rode the upturn to its fullest I think and sold all my stocks a week ago on Friday July 26th when the Dow was up about 700 points. And this week as 10-Year Treasury Notes and further out went below 4%, I locked in a 4.8% annuity for 3 years. Easier to sleep this weekend and beyond. Albeit, I did leave some play money to play the downside:) Bear markets are quicker and harsher than bull markets. Easy money to be made if the bear market is truly underway. On to some numbers and forecasts. This is going to be VERY LONG as I am going to layout a lot of specific targets for numerous markets. AGAIN NONE OF THIS INVESTMENT ADVICE. Just my hobby of forecasting the future.
One thing that annoys me most about most analysts are they make forecasts and don’t provide a point (aka as a stop-loss) where they say their forecast is wrong and has to be reconsidered. That leaves their followers not knowing what to do when the person they are following has missed a call. I never care when the market crosses a stop-loss point. Yes, it means my analysis was wrong and, if I traded it, I took a loss. But, if you take trades where your expected profit/loss ratio is at least 3-4/1, then the small losses are nothing compared to the large profits.
DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS – The DOW broke below the 39,411 level today that I mentioned would indicate the peak on July 18th was the Bull Market top. The only problem was this was a closing target, not an intraday figure. The DOW closed at 39,737. Also, the wave theory I follow does not clearly show a change in trend. With all other stock indices clearly in a Bear Market, I am going to assume the DOW is, too. If it gets back to 40,061-40,353, I will probably go short with a stop-loss around 41,000. If it is in a Bear Market, it should not see 41,000 again.
NASDAQ – The Bull Market top occurred at 20,691 on July 10. As I predicted a few weeks ago, the DOW has been much stronger than the NASDAQ. There have been several days recently where the DOW was up a few hundred points and the NASDAQ was down a few hundred. First support is around 17,000-17,500. It is very early, but I am thinking the Bear Market might bottom between 10,500 and 13,500. A 35%-49% decline would be moderate for the NASDAQ. In the past, major declines have been over 80%. Right now, it will take a move to a new high to end the Bear Market case. That isn’t ideal. But, sometimes that is all you have. Right now is not an ideal entry point to short the NASDAQ 100 or S&P 500. Although, I think some more carnage lies ahead next week, a rally after that back to anywhere around 19,000 on the NASDAQ 100 would give me a great place to short. I just am not sure it will ever get back to that level. Today’s close was 18,441. A Bear Market doesn’t like to give short-sellers an easy time either:)
RUSSELL 2000 – The Bull Market top actually occurred back in November 2021 at 2,459. The Bear Market rally topped at 2,300 on July 31. Today’s close was 2,109. If I can get a move back to about 2,172 to close a gap on the chart that occurred today, I will go short with a 2,300 stop-loss. My analysis suggests the high end of the Bear Market bottom range is 1,475 with 965 being the bottom end. Two separate wave relationships point to 965. So, I give that most weight. Thus, a short trade initiated at 2,172 would have an expected profit of 697-1,207 points with a stop-loss being at 128 points. That is a 5.5-9.4/1 profit/loss ratio. Those are the kind of trades I like:)
TREASURY BONDS – The rally I have called for continues and accelerated today. The US 30-Year Treasury Bond price closed at just over 125. Around a 4.1% yield. The main target is around 131 or about a 3.5% yield. The high-end price target is about 144 or about a 3.0% yield. I guess if I had to pick a stop-loss point it would be about 120.5.
ECONOMY – I have reiterated many times that economists waste their time trying to forecast the economy when the stock market tells us what is happening 6 months into the future. The market has correctly forecast the strong economy for the past 2 years and already said it will be strong through the end of the year. However, if the market is in a Bear Market, then it is telling us that next January and February will show us an economy in trouble. As I mentioned almost a year ago, a way early indicator was pointing towards a 2025 recession. The market is now pointing that way, too. And the market doesn’t get this wrong. My expectation is that the economists and pundits that have been dead wrong for two years about a recession occurring will start to say no chance of a recession in 2025 because the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates in September and interest rates fall significantly as I have forecast. Also, Trueflation is now down below 1.4%. The pundits will be overwhelming you with how great things are as inflation is tamed and mortgage rates are down, blah blah blah. I do hope they will be bullish right as the recession gets underway. As a reminder, when the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year Bonds) gets to +100bp we will be in a recession. It is down to about -20bp. The lowest I have seen in a year or two. We have lots of lead time to get from -20bp to +100bp. Could that lead time be 6-9 months as the market has indicated? Coincidence? 🙂
UNEMPLOYMENT – On July 1st, I posted it will be 4.4%-4.5% by year end. It went up to 4.3% in today’s report. The whole world now knows about the Sahm Rule (I will let you look it up to see what it is.). Supposedly, it was triggered today. I thought it already had been. I think there is a similar rule with a different name measured in a slightly different way. Everyone talks about its 100% perfect record predicting recessions since 1970 or such. What everyone doesn’t know apparently is that the rule has only a 50% accuracy rate when unemployment rates get adjusted after the initial announcement. A flip of the coin is definitely more accurate than economists and weather forecasters! But, it doesn’t help me in my analysis.
GOLD & SILVER – I am getting tired. If you are still reading, I am sure you are, too:) The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely. I will probably hop on this trade Monday morning.
LASTLY – One last thing came to mind. Over a year ago when the SVB debacle occurred, I posted about buying when no one else wanted to. Everyone predicted 400+ banks to close up and the housing market to crash. Here is what those experts cost you if you didn’t invest in those sectors. Granted no one would be able to buy at the exact low and high. But, the bull moves were as follows – The S&P Regional Index (KRE) bottomed at 34.52 and the recent top was 59.59. A 72% move. Even if you just caught the middle part of the move for a 50% profit remember all of those pundits that told you banks were in trouble. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was around 64 at the time of the SVB event. But, the bull move had started a year earlier at 51. The recent top was an ALL-TIME HIGH at 121.23. Over the past 15 months it went up a measly 89%. If you threw in the towel today, you would have made over 70%. Remember to thank all of those people that have been predicting a housing market crash. And seriously folks, look up on YouTube or wherever the videos from around the SVB event forward and find those analysts that were forecasting armageddon – and NEVER EVER listen to them again!!!
I might be back here sooner than later. I live for bear markets. I get very active when they are occurring. This bear doesn’t hibernate:)
Shalom,
The Mann
BULLISH ON WHEAT
MAY 15, 2024 – I haven’t been paying attention to my March 22nd forecast for a Bull Market in Wheat. On that date the December 2024 futures was about $6 after bottoming a few weeks earlier at $5.65. The futures closed today at $7.11 after peaking at $7.29 a few days ago. If I were trading the futures, I would be ecstatic and would probably grab some profit.
But, just forecasting here and the forecast was for a significant increase in price over the next 12 months….now 10 months.
I expect Wheat prices to increase significantly over the next 12 months. I will revisit this at yearend to see how things turn out.
As an aside, no need to rush out and store up on bread:)
Shalom,
The Mann
But, just forecasting here and the forecast was for a significant increase in price over the next 12 months….now 10 months.
I expect Wheat prices to increase significantly over the next 12 months. I will revisit this at yearend to see how things turn out.
As an aside, no need to rush out and store up on bread:)
Shalom,
The Mann
STOCK MARKET AND INTEREST RATES
MAY 15, 2024 – It has only been ten days since I posted an update about stocks and bonds. But, when things change, you need to note it. It looks like the recent correction ended in my target range and the final leg of this Bull Market is underway. We are dealing with TARGET 1 from my January 8th post which stated the following:
TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
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In late March, the DOW peaked at about 40,300. Since then, a data correction has been made and the top is listed at just under 40,000. I haven’t seen that happen before. Regardless, the top was close enough to the Target 1 projection of 40,522. The subsequent correction was a short 5 weeks (ended April 17th) and bottomed in the 37,000 to 38,500 range at precisely 37,612.
As noted in the January 8th forecast above, the final target range is in the 43,000 to 45,500 range. It is crazy to be precise (albeit the past 5 months have been spot on), but I really am liking 44,000 to 44,300 for a final top. As this final leg plays out, a more precise target can be made.
Remember, a Bull Market climbs a wall of worries. And for 18+ months it has fed on the world predicting a recession. Regardless of where we go from here, ALL of those economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. The case is closed on them.
INTEREST RATES – As noted ten days ago, it appears the bond decline ended on April 25th. Bonds have rallied strongly since then. Albeit, the first wave of the 5-wave move has probably ended and a small decline should start immediately. A much larger rally lies ahead – which means interest rates will resume their decline at that time.
I will post updates as the stock and bond rallies unfold.
Shalom,
The Mann
P.S. If I told you that sometime in the 2030’s we may have +100% annual GDP growth, what would you say?
TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
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In late March, the DOW peaked at about 40,300. Since then, a data correction has been made and the top is listed at just under 40,000. I haven’t seen that happen before. Regardless, the top was close enough to the Target 1 projection of 40,522. The subsequent correction was a short 5 weeks (ended April 17th) and bottomed in the 37,000 to 38,500 range at precisely 37,612.
As noted in the January 8th forecast above, the final target range is in the 43,000 to 45,500 range. It is crazy to be precise (albeit the past 5 months have been spot on), but I really am liking 44,000 to 44,300 for a final top. As this final leg plays out, a more precise target can be made.
Remember, a Bull Market climbs a wall of worries. And for 18+ months it has fed on the world predicting a recession. Regardless of where we go from here, ALL of those economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. The case is closed on them.
INTEREST RATES – As noted ten days ago, it appears the bond decline ended on April 25th. Bonds have rallied strongly since then. Albeit, the first wave of the 5-wave move has probably ended and a small decline should start immediately. A much larger rally lies ahead – which means interest rates will resume their decline at that time.
I will post updates as the stock and bond rallies unfold.
Shalom,
The Mann
P.S. If I told you that sometime in the 2030’s we may have +100% annual GDP growth, what would you say?
DOW 2024 FORECAST
JANUARY 8, 2024 – Precisely forecasting the stock market is obviously futile. That said, I am posting this forecast so I can keep track of it and how it plays out. There are two target options so I will simply label them 1 and 2. They are both bullish so I am not saying the market may go up, but it may go down:) Just saying that there are a few ways it can play out statistically. So here goes the impossible….
TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
Please let me know if you have seen anyone forecast the Dow going to these levels this year. There is a chance the top may not occur til early 2025. I am not interested in timing re the above forecasts. Only prices.
What would make me have to totally reconsider everything? A Dow close below 34,590 would likely erase any chances of the above occurring. So, as a gambler, you are looking at a bet with a potential upside of 5,000-9,000 points and downside of about 3,000 points. A decent bet to take.
I got lucky back in early 2018 when I forecast the Dow would have a small correction, followed by a move to new highs, followed by a larger correction below the last low, then back to even a higher new high, followed by the largest correction to lows below 22,000 – this occurred in the lockdown in 2020 with a low around 18,000 which at the time I forecast within 100 points. One of my better longer-term forecasts ever.
Right now, I am 15+ months into this Bull Market forecast and I suspect it has at least 6 more months to play out if not 9-15 more months. Or I will be wrong this time around:)
As I usually say, we shall see.
Shalom,
The Mann
R.I.P. RECESSION PREDICTORS – YOU WERE DEAD WRONG!
DECEMBER 15, 2023 – First off, happy birthday to my dear wife.
Back in April and June, I mentioned that the wave theory I follow showed a strong rally ahead. It would require us breaking through the all-time highs by a wide margin. This week the Dow 30 achieved new highs and is above 37,000 for the first time ever. 40k and possibly 44k in 2024 are on the table. They have been for over 6 months.
With the information below it is time to 100% emphatically declare anyone that has forecast a recession for the past 18 months and into 2024 dead wrong. Their analysis is totally in error. Just fess up and admit with hat in hand you have no clue what you were talking about. You will feel better:) On to where the data stands and what it is telling us.
BANKS – To date, we have had two bank closures that I am aware of. One was strange as it was not FDIC-insured. We will be ending the year much closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people. I think we will be able to say the same next December.
As for CRE loan defaults, I have dealt with about 5 bad loans. There has been no consistency as to why the loans went south. I am seeing nothing that indicates a lot of foreclosures nor anything specific to a property type.
Amazingly, the Regional Bank Index (KRE) is up 58% from its yearly low and is back above where it was before the SVB/SBNY closings. Remember, buy when there is blood in the streets. It worked again.
To reiterate, the market is saying that it does not believe there will be a CRE loan debacle for banks. Either not many CRE loans will default and/or banks are well prepared and capitalized to handle the defaults.
HOUSING – Home prices have been up all year and the rate of appreciation is increasing. It isn’t much. That is a good sign as it can be sustained into 2024.
The Homebuilders Stock Index was up over 5% one day this week and is now up an incredible 62% (!)from last year’s lows. On top of that, this is an all-time high.
Those who forecast a crash in the housing market continue to be way off the mark. As I said all along, 7% interest rates are nothing to worry about.
INTEREST RATES – Bonds bottomed on October 23rd. A strong rally has dropped rates by about 100bp already. A minor correction should start soon. Then after the new year, we will continue the decline in interest rates. The target is about 25-125bp lower than we are today.
INFLATION – The December report came in at 3.1%, well below my forecast of 3.6%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.9%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower. However, continue reading.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 3.5%-3.6%. The January report should show annual CPI for 2023 to be around 3.5%. Then from the February report on into the Summer, the CPI should crumble towards 2%.
SUMMARY – With the Dow 30, bank, and housing stocks at their highs, the markets are saying all should be well through the first half of 2024. The economy is supposed to be looking good in an Election Year. That looks to be the case again.
I will reprint this statement from a post a few months ago: I put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025. The first year of the president cycle often sees an economic downturn. I suspect that a year from now the broken-clock recession mongers will have given up and admitted the economy is strong, et al. Just in time to be wrong again:)
Happy Hannukah, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann