Tag Archives: Fed

Mann Overboard

INFLATION UPDATE

JULY 12, 2024 – The June report came in at 3.0%, below the consensus estimate of 3.4%. I didn’t expect quite so low. But, was not surprised. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.9%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (3.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area for awhile. The data is predicting a reading between 3.0% and 3.2% next month. I think 2.8%-2.9% is likely.
The market is expecting one rate reduction from the Fed – maybe in September or December. There is a very slim, but increasing, chance of a rate reduction at the upcoming July meeting. I have also seen a forecast of up to 8 reductions by next Summer. That seems extreme to me. But, if the unemployment rate goes up to 4.4%-4.5% and the CPI can stay below 3%, then the Fed may well make a 25bp reduction at every meeting once they start with the first one.
Shalom,
The Mann
P.S. For those that read to the end….One indicator I have seen shows Bitcoin at $240,000 next Summer. As I always, say, we shall see.

P.P.S. Two questions for you to research now that you will have to answer in the future. Are you an Accelerationalist or Deccelerationalist? And will you remain an entirely organic human (non-augmented) or have a machine imbedded into your brain to become a silicon-based superintelligent being (augmented)? If you will take the time to research these, you will thank me 5-10 years from now. Books to look into include The Singularity is Nearer and Homo Deus.

Mann Overboard

INFLATION UPDATE

JUNE 14, 2024 – Well, the May report is in, and it clocked a 3.3% inflation rate, just a hair below my forecast of 3.4%-3.6% and the consensus estimate of 3.4%. Meanwhile, the 3-month annualized inflation rate is holding steady at 5.0%, and the 6-month rate is at 4.6%. These numbers are higher than the annualized rate of 3.3%, signaling that we’re likely to see the annual CPI stick around these levels or even climb a bit higher for the foreseeable future. Next month’s reading is predicted to land between 3.3% and 3.4%, but I’m betting it’ll come in a tad lower.

Remember my prediction from last month about the Fed’s December statement? They had high hopes of lowering interest rates three times in 2024, which seemed pretty optimistic. The market was more cautious, expecting just one reduction, maybe in September or December. Following the market’s lead, the Fed has now revised their statement, hinting at just one rate cut before the year wraps up.

Here’s my take: although the Fed publicly aims for a 2% CPI target, it sure seems like they’re content with it hovering in the 3.0-3.5% range. Intentional? You bet.

Shalom,
The Mann
Mann Overboard

INFLATION UPDATE

MAY 16, 2024 – The March report came in at 3.4%, at low end of my forecast of 3.4%-3.6% and below the consensus estimate of 3.5%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 6.7%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.8%. These figures are above the annualized rate (3.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or higher for awhile. The data is predicting a reading between 3.4% and 3.6% next month. I think this reasonable.
The Fed’s December statement that they expect to lower interest rates 3 times in 2024 looks to be inaccurate. The market is expecting one reduction – maybe in September or December.
It appears to me that although the Fed states their CPI target is 2% they are actually keeping it in 3.0-3.5% range on purpose.
Shalom,
The Mann

PS For those who read to the end, a tidbit of amazing information. By the Year 2100, the largest Age Group in the European Union will be 85 years and older. It won’t even be close. The second largest Age Group (55-59yo) will be about 60% the size. If you wonder why the world is going to robotics (Amazon has more robots than human employees now), it is because we simply won’t have enough human workers. The working age population worldwide is projected to decline beginning around 2050.

Mann Overboard

INFLATION UPDATE

APRIL 11, 2024 – The March report came in at 3.5%, above my forecast of 3.0%-3.2% and the consensus estimate of 3.4%. No doubt about it, this was a strong inflation reading.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 7.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.0%. These figures are significantly above the annualized rate (3.5%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or higher for awhile.
The data is predicting a reading between 3.2% and 3.6% next month. I think the reading will be between 3.4% and 3.6%.
The Fed’s December statement that they expect to lower interest rates 3 times in 2024 looks to be inaccurate. The market is expecting one reduction – maybe in June. As I always say, we shall see.

Shalom,

The Mann
Mann Overboard

THE REMAINDER OF 2023 – ECONOMY

UPDATE JULY 27, 2023 – 2nd Quarter came in at a whopping +2.4%. Far exceeding expectations that were below +1.5%. So, we have an economy that has expanded, not contracted, this year! The stock market told us this would happen. For anyone you know that has been predicting a recession in 2023, please ask them if they admit they have been totally wrong. People need to admit their errors and stop being broken clocks. If they don’t, they have no credibility. As I note in my original post below, it is likely the current forecast of +0.5% and 0.0% for the remaining two quarters will change to the upside as the year carries on. Will the economy slowdown from +2.0%-2.4%? Yes. The stock market has said it will be stagnant the remainder of the year. But, will we see two negative figures in a row? The odds are near zero. Plan accordingly.

JULY 22, 2023 – It is all but guaranteed that the recession mongers will be wrong about such occurring in 2023. As I forecast earlier in the year, by Summer (i.e. now) those people would begin to move their prediction to a recession occurring in 2024. Enough time wasted on the large group of media and economists that are broken records.
So, what does the future hold. The past 12 months have been very easy to predict for the economy, housing, and inflation. IF you just read what the stock market (i.e. Dow 30) is telling us. Yes, it is that simple. And, yet, 99%+ of the public and pundits don’t do it.
The Dow 30 peaked in December 2022 after bottoming in October 2022. That told us to expect weakness thru April 2023. Sure enough, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the associated bank panic occurred in March and April.
Since December 2022, the stock market trended sideways for 8 months. Just this past week the Dow finally broke thru the 35,000 level after about 7(!) failed attempts. So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the economy is expected to be stagnant for the last 6 months of this year. And, based on this upside breakout, the economy should see an uptick in the 1st Quarter of 2024. This is a very early interpretation as the breakout just occurred this week and is only a small amount above the December 2022 high.
Is the stock market, and thus smart money, correct? Yes. As usual. 1st Quarter GDP was +2.0% (revised from the initial report of 1.3%). 2nd Quarter GDP is project to be +1.3%-1.4%. But, 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP are expected to be barely in positive territory. Exactly what the stock market has told us would be the case for the past 8 months – a stagnant Dow 30 forecasts a stagnant economy 6 months out.
Forecasts obviously vary. I have seen most to be around +0.5% for the 3rd Quarter and 0% for the 4th Quarter. But, I think those forecasts are trending up due to the strengthening housing market (that will be my next post, so please come back:) ).
The recession mongers will be screaming they told us the economy was caving. One, they have been calling for a recession for over a year (right after the actual recession just ended!) and GDP has come nowhere two negative quarterly figures in a row. Two, the stock market has forecast the ups and downs with 100% accuracy. It hasn’t been a broken record.
Based on my forecast that the CPI will trend up the remainder of the year, I suspect the market will tell the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate several more times. Note, the public is wrong to blame Powell for raising rates. He is simply doing what the Fed has done forever – following exactly what the market has told it to do. So, the market has obviously priced in all Fed actions ahead of the Fed meetings because the market told them what to do at the meetings!!!
But, I digress…..my point is the recession mongers will remain a broken record as they will continue to say that the Fed’s raising of interest rates is going to push us into a recession. As of today, the stock market says they are wrong and a recession is not going to happen. I put my money on the stock market instead of all of those economists that have been 100% wrong for the past year (and longer).
I believe my forecast of the housing market will be my next post. I will probably combine it with a brief discussion on banks.
Shalom,
The Mann

Mann Overboard

GDP & BANKS UPDATE

APRIL 29, 2023 – 1st Quarter came in at +1.1%. It continues to slow. But, another positive quarter. Early forecasts show 2nd Quarter GDP being slightly positive. However, with ample time for adjustments, there is a chance it could end up being negative.
Quick note, I received an email from the Fed last week showing it was expecting 1st Quarter GDP to be +1.13%. They appear to be the only one to get the forecast right. Of course, they have access to all of the data that goes into the GDP.
Regardless, it will be around Halloween before a recession can be in the books. And if the 2nd Quarter GDP does end up being positive, a recession cannot be official until late January 2024.
So far, the stock market says a recession will not occur this year. We shall see who is right – the stock market and the smart money or everyone else that is all but guaranteeing a recession will occur in 2023.
Will the Leading Economic Indicator that has declined for 10+ months and has been signaling a recession for many months be right?
Will the fact that bank credit tightening leads to a recession be right?
There are numerous other indicators signaling a recession will occur this year. The only problem they have is they are not the stock market.
My bet is, and always has been, on the stock market being correct. As always, we shall see.
BANKS – Still no new bank failures. First Republic Bank was part of this original crisis that occurred with the SVB and SNBY and Credit Suisse failures. The only other bank that is walking on thin ice is Deutsche Bank. Beyond this initial list, no banks have failed. The count remains 0 versus the 176-200 predicted by many people. (UPDATE – In 1907, JP Morgan the person came to the rescue of the banking system and in 2023 the company with his name did the same.))
The Regional Bank Index remains about 2% above the low set during the SVB/SBNY crisis with the drawdown to date being 3%. Money is not being made on these stocks. But, they sure have not fallen apart. Friday was a classic day that fools the public. The headline news was First Republic Bank heading towards failure. Instead of being down, both the Regional Bank Index and the Dow were up. The Dow is now above 34,000 again. Remember, a Bull Market climbs a wall of worry. The more negative news we have this year, the higher stocks should go. And it looks like all we will hear from the pundits is negative news. When the news turns positive, the stock market will have already topped.
Happy trading and investing.
Shalom,
The Mann

Mann Overboard

INFLATION FORECAST AND BANK UPDATE

APRIL 14, 2023 – As I said a month ago, I thought the data was forecasting a higher rate than we would see. Sure enough, annual inflation fell significantly to 5.0%. Just under my forecast of 5.1%-5.3%.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is a very high 6.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.4%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (5.0%) and thus indicate the decline in the annual CPI should slow down.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 5.0%-5.1%. My gut tells me this will be the ceiling with a rate as low as 4.6% possible.
The June and July readings will reflect significant declines in the annual CPI. As for the July 12th forecast, the data now suggests a ceiling around 3%. The odds for a figure around 2% have become very small. It is looking like we might have 3%-4% inflation for the second half of the year. It will take a recession combined with deflation to achieve the Fed’s goal of sub-2% inflation. That said, 3%-4% is far below the double-digit rates many people have been forecasting for the past year.
Regarding banks, week after week goes by without any closures. At this point, we are much closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people. CRE loan losses are on their way. But, I just don’t see many banks failing because of such. Simply due to increased capital from 15 years ago and the Fed shoring up their unrealized treasury bond losses.

The Regional Bank Index (KRE) remains about 3%-5% above the low set the Monday after the SVB/SBNY closings. The maximum drawdown since then was about 1.5%. Not much movement in general. But, the market certainly hasn’t thrown in the towel on these banks.
Lastly, the market is telling the Fed to raise rates another 25bp and then later this year lower them twice.
Shalom,
The Mann

Mann Overboard

OVERNIGHT REVERSE REPO AGREEMENTS (ORRA)

MARCH 23, 2023 – The most critical issue the Fed has to address right away is stopping the outflow of deposits from banks. It started 2 quarters ago and accelerated with the SVB debacle. The outflow continues.
The consumer is aware of the risk of having money in banks and can get a 4%+ interest rate in money market funds. Why keep money in a bank at 0.5%?
Money market funds have a sudden excess of funds and are using the Overnight Reverse Repo Agreement market to park those funds with the Fed. This is where the Fed can start QE4 – put a limit on how much money can be deposited in the ORRA.
If they use this tool, they will be making a major statement and shift in policy. Watch for this. It might be like March 2009 when they went full throttle with QE and the stock market bottomed never to see that level again.
We shall see….
Shalom,
The Mann

Mann Overboard

AN EVERYTHING UPDATE :)

UPDATE – MARCH 23, 2023 – A few items to update regarding the post below and other recent posts. I had heard that 1/3 of bank deposits are uninsured. I just saw a chart from the FDIC that says about 1/2, or about $9 Trillion (!), in deposits are uninsured. No banking system could withstand even 20% of that amount being withdrawn. Money continues to leave banks as consumers can get 4%+ in money market funds and T-Bills versus 0.5% in banks. With the inverted yield curve, banks are unable to pay 4%-5% on deposits in line with the Fed Fund Rates.

Here is a list of banks with the most unrealized losses in relation to their total equity capital. Remember, the Fed is letting banks get funding on their underwater bonds at full par value. So, this doesn’t necessarily mean a run on deposits at these banks will make them go under. But, they are on thin ice. Customers Bancorp, Inc., First Republic Bank (been in the news for a week), Sany Spring Bancorp, Inc., New York Community Bancorp, Inc., First Foundation, Inc., Ally Financial, Inc. (by far the worst ratio….and like CACC, in the auto loan business), Dime Community Bancshares Inc., Pacific Premier Bancorp Inc., Prosperity Bancshares Inc., and Columbia Financial, Inc. The late-SVB was in this group, too.

The more I understand what the Fed has done, it appears this is what I would call IQE1 – Indirect Quantitative Easing 1. Leave it to us Baby Boomers and our invention of creative financing to now come up with an Indirect QE:) Gotta love us:) In the end, it will probably be referred to as QE4. See my next post as to a term you will want to watch for to know when the Fed has gone all in on the real QE4.

As an aside, the Regional Bank ETF hit a new low by a few pennies today. The market is still sorting out which banks to sell and which to buy.

Also, I mention in the original post below that the market is telling the Fed to lower rates 150bps in 2024. I heard today that has been moved up and the market wants the Fed to pivot in 3-4 months and start lowering rates. No pressure on Powell, eh!

MARCH 21, 2023 – As the 1st Quarter comes to an end, this seems like a good time to update my thoughts on forecasts on many items. So, here goes. No particular order.
BANKS – As this has been the hot topic for the last 10 days. It seems like everyone is predicting hundreds of bank failures to come. The Texas Ratio shows 200 banks at risk. Folks we have entered QE4. I think the last QE was QE3. Correct me if I am wrong. If Vegas gave me good odds, I would bet no more American banks would fail this year. Yes, you heard me right. As there might be some small banks that are in marginal shape, I am thinking a better bet is less than 5 or so banks will fail. I am thinking total assets of banks that might fail will be under $50 Billion. Maybe much lower. There are 10 banks with relatively high CRE ratios. But, their reserves are likely high enough to handle upcoming CRE losses. And the Fed thru QE4 already shored up the weakness in their Balance Sheets. I learned from QE1 thru QE3 that the Fed isn’t going to allow our markets to suffer for too long. As the saying goes, buy when there is blood in the streets. That occurred on Monday March 13th. The S&P Regional Bank ETF I mentioned bottomed that day at 41.92. It has been higher since and closed today at 46.07. Up 10%. No, you wouldn’t have bought at the bottom tick. But, you probably would have bought very close to it as it was such an obvious moment in time. I have been wrong before. But, I can see that panic bottom not being violated and the ETF continuing higher this year. The entire world is anti-regional banks. That is when you should be pro-regional banks.
INFLATION – Geez this will get extremely long if I write as much as I did about banks:) I still see a July 12th annual reading of 3% or lower. 2% is still likely. I will throw out something you likely have not heard from anyone. There is a slim chance of a NEGATIVE inflation (aka deflation) reading at yearend or, more likely, in 2024. That isn’t a prediction I would lay too much money on. But, if you gave me the same odds that FDU had of beating Purdue in The Big Dance, I would put some money down.

FED FUNDS RATE – Everyone is asking this week what will the Fed do at the upcoming meeting. It is truly a 50/50 chance they will not make a change or raise the rate 25bp. In the end, there is minimal difference. The difference is more psychological. My guess is they make no change and defer such to April. The market was telling them they had 50bp more to go. Now it is 25bp. Let’s wait a month and see what the market says after things have calmed down. A surprising item I saw was the market is telling the Fed to DROP rates 150bp in 2024. Although the market forecast last year’s rate increases early in the year, I think it is a bit early to put much weight into the 2024 message. Also, remember, the average time between the first rate decrease and the last rate increase is 4.5 months. Since, we will likely have the last increase in March-May, it would be difficult to have a decrease by yearend. Again, give me FDU odds, and I would take a chance on a decrease in November or December.

THE BIG SHORT 2 – As I posted last August, this cycle’s ‘big short’ was auto loans. As of Yearend 2022, $20 Billion of Generation Z and Millennials auto loans are over 90 days past due. They need to watch a classic cult movie of the early 1980’s – Repo Man. They can probably stream it:) Digressing, my uncle was a repo man. I went out one night in Fort Lauderdale with him getting cars. Scariest night of my life. Back to now….Also, for 20% of Generation Z, over 20% of their after-tax income goes to a car payment!!!! Insanity. Of course, I am sure it is like their college loans and a gun was put to their head and they were forced to take on this debt;) SCOTUS will be listening to a case in 2024 about Biden wanting to forgive auto loan debt. Have some ethics. Have some morals. Pay your debt even if it takes the rest of your life!!! The one stock I mentioned was Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC). Its all-time high was 703.27. Its bottom to date was at the beginning of year at 358.00. That is a 49% decline. At today’s close of 415, it is down 41%. That is far in excess of the DOW being down 12% from its all-time high. Not a bad call for those who actually played The Big Short 2.

BITCOIN – There is a current setup that is similar to two times in the past that took Bitcoin up over 60x and then over 20x. As assets soar in price, it becomes more difficult to have the same huge percentage increases. So, if this setup plays out, then maybe a 5x-10x move over the next 1-3 years is possible. From the recent major low around $16,000, that would be $80,000-$160,000. This will take some time to play out.

STOCKS & BONDS – It seems like everyone is looking for a recession this year. Everyone is expecting the stock market to fall apart. As I have posted on here many times, 2022 was the recession. In 2022, the global loss for stocks and bonds was about $36.5 Trillion (!!!). In comparison, the maximum loss in 2008 was about $23.5 Trillion and in 2020 was about $24.0 Trillion. What more do people want? A CRASH 50% larger than what occurred in 2008 isn’t enough? Since I seem to be in the mood to put out crazy forecasts, let’s not stop here. By yearend, I can see the DOW above 38,000 and the S&P 500 in the 4800-4900 range. 40k in ’24 has a nice ring to it. I would be interested if you see anyone else forecasting the DOW above 38k or S&P 500 above 4800. Those who know me know I have been a bear my entire life. I have always lived for downturns. For me to be this bullish, is beyond amazing to even me. A question I always want to ask analysts is what would it take for you to say your forecast is wrong. In this case, that would be the DOW breaking below last October’s lows at 28,660. If that occurs, the above is out the door.

OIL – I honestly haven’t looked at a chart since I sold all my oil and gas (aka pro-plant stocks) holdings the day oil hit $137 per barrel. This was about a week into the Russia/Ukraine dustup. The opposite of buy when there is blood in the streets is sell when everyone wants to buy something. That was the day of the high and oil has recently traded as low as $70. Almost a 50% decline. Do you remember a year ago when everyone said we were in for a major shortage of oil and prices would go even higher? What are those people saying now? This is the first time in my life I have not owned oil and gas stocks. It is getting tempting after a 50% decline. I may check into the charts and see what is up. If I do, I will post my thoughts here. In the interim, please boycott EVs and buy only gas vehicles and devices and help the plants around the world flourish and feed its 8 billion people. I always tell people that whether it is bonds or corn or cattle or oil it is us futures traders that dictate what the price is and what consumers will pay. It is not supply and demand. It is not government actions. Commodity traders are the ones in control.

HOUSING – I am exhausted writing the above. I will cover housing in the near future. There are mixed signals. But, in general, I am feeling my expectation of unexpected market strength is playing out perfectly. NAR’s price index just declined on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 2012. However, AEI’s HPA saw a recent monthly increase. Also, Pending Home Sales are up 9.3% in the two months thru January. That is the dead of winter and home sales are up almost double digits. Remember, a year ago, the housing market was super strong. So, this isn’t working off of low numbers. Looking at a chart since 2001, when Pending Home Sales turn up they don’t usually turn back down. My prediction re mortgage rates has come very close to occurring. We have not been below 6% yet. This decline is getting long in the tooth and I am watching the charts to see when the bottom is in place and we turn back up. Although the rates have been down ever since I predicted such, it is looking like a move below 6% might not happen. Still a chance though.

You’re tired. I am tired. I hope you find the above of interest. Even eye-opening. Forecasts obviously do not come true 100% of the time. Keep that in mind. I certainly do:) I am disappointed with even a single incorrect forecast. I give it my best to be right as much as possible and to admit when I am wrong. I rarely see the pundits come out and say I was dead wrong. They should be forced to do such.

Always glad to hear from you. Please email me with any thoughts you have. Any charts or data you see that I might be interested in. I am at GeorgeRMann@Aol.Com.

Shalom,

The Mann

Mann Overboard

INFLATION FORECAST

MARCH 15, 2023 – This month treated me better. As I wrote last month, the data suggested annual inflation at 5.6%-5.7%, but I thought 6.0% was more likely. It came in at 6.0%.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.2%. Both figures are still much lower than the annualized rate (6.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should continue to decline.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 5.6%-5.7%. However, my gut tells me it may be much lower in the 5.1%-5.3% range.
As for the July 12th forecast, the data now suggests a ceiling around 3%. However, the odds for a figure around 2% are starting to decline.
Shalom,
The Mann
P.S. I did want to mention that the market has told the Fed another 25bp rate increase is acceptable. After this week’s bank debacle, there is a decent chance the Fed will forego an increase this month. A tough call for Mr. Powell. 25bp is minor anyway. It is more about the action than the amount at this time. We shall see.