GDP & BANKS UPDATE

APRIL 29, 2023 – 1st Quarter came in at +1.1%. It continues to slow. But, another positive quarter. Early forecasts show 2nd Quarter GDP being slightly positive. However, with ample time for adjustments, there is a chance it could end up being negative.
Quick note, I received an email from the Fed last week showing it was expecting 1st Quarter GDP to be +1.13%. They appear to be the only one to get the forecast right. Of course, they have access to all of the data that goes into the GDP.
Regardless, it will be around Halloween before a recession can be in the books. And if the 2nd Quarter GDP does end up being positive, a recession cannot be official until late January 2024.
So far, the stock market says a recession will not occur this year. We shall see who is right – the stock market and the smart money or everyone else that is all but guaranteeing a recession will occur in 2023.
Will the Leading Economic Indicator that has declined for 10+ months and has been signaling a recession for many months be right?
Will the fact that bank credit tightening leads to a recession be right?
There are numerous other indicators signaling a recession will occur this year. The only problem they have is they are not the stock market.
My bet is, and always has been, on the stock market being correct. As always, we shall see.
BANKS – Still no new bank failures. First Republic Bank was part of this original crisis that occurred with the SVB and SNBY and Credit Suisse failures. The only other bank that is walking on thin ice is Deutsche Bank. Beyond this initial list, no banks have failed. The count remains 0 versus the 176-200 predicted by many people. (UPDATE – In 1907, JP Morgan the person came to the rescue of the banking system and in 2023 the company with his name did the same.))
The Regional Bank Index remains about 2% above the low set during the SVB/SBNY crisis with the drawdown to date being 3%. Money is not being made on these stocks. But, they sure have not fallen apart. Friday was a classic day that fools the public. The headline news was First Republic Bank heading towards failure. Instead of being down, both the Regional Bank Index and the Dow were up. The Dow is now above 34,000 again. Remember, a Bull Market climbs a wall of worry. The more negative news we have this year, the higher stocks should go. And it looks like all we will hear from the pundits is negative news. When the news turns positive, the stock market will have already topped.
Happy trading and investing.
Shalom,
The Mann