Tag Archives: economy

Mann Overboard

ECONOMY UPDATE

JULY 26, 2024 – Just to be transparent, I cashed in most of my holdings today. When the Dow is up 700 points it is a good day to sell:) We continue to see the Dow perform way better than the NASDAQ. My expectation of one more new high move by the Dow not being confirmed by the NASDAQ looks better and better.

JULY 25, 2024 – 2nd Quarter GDP came out above expectations at +2.8%. We have now completed 2 full years of strong economic growth. Something that 99% of the economists and pundits said would not occur.
I do some of my best thinking in my dreams. I have long thought of them as an alternate reality and am amazed at some of the things they come up with. As I dreamed about the economy, an analogy came to mind. A traffic stoplight.
For the past 2 years, the economy has been on solid Green. Economists and pundits kept calling for Yellow or full Red. We never had a chance of such and never came close.
However, for the first time in over 2 years, I am switching my signal from solid Green to that hard to see split second when Green starts to turn to Yellow. As I have mentioned many times, the stock market (Dow 30 for my analysis) is forecasting the economy 6 months into the future. Right now, that is the end of February 2025. Basically, next Spring.
The NASDAQ 100 has a good chance of having topped on July 10th. Thus, it would be in the first stages of a Bear Market. My analysis is calling for the Dow to make one more move to new highs peaking as low as 42,000. 43,000 still remains possible. The NASDAQ 100 would also rally. But, not to new highs. If the Dow does put in a final top over the next month, then it would be saying the economy will peak by the 1st Quarter of 2025 and start a downturn after that. I forget how long ago it was that I mentioned a long lead time indicator was suggesting a recession in 2025. Also, the first year of a Presidential cycle often sees a recession.
In summary, it looks like the economy’s Green light is just starting to change to Yellow. Using another analogy, the stock market appears to be the first car on a rollercoaster that has passed the top and started downward.
I will say that my 50+ years of experience says that stock market tops are tough to call as they stretch out over a period of time. Stock market bottoms are usually easy to see as they take a ‘V-formation.’ Interestingly, commodities do just the opposite.
Lastly, ALL sentiment indicators say almost all stock markets (NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow, Russell, etc) are around a top.
We shall see how the next month or so plays out. There is a small chance the Dow has already topped, too. I will be watching closely.
Shalom,
The Mann

Mann Overboard

INFLATION AND ECONOMY UPDATES

FEBRUARY 12, 2024 – The January report came in at 3.1%, just below my forecast of 3.2%-3.3%. and above the consensus estimate of 2.9%.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.8%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.7% next month. Like last month, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.0%-3.1% for next month’s figure.
ECONOMY – We have had 6 straight quarters of above 2% GDP growth since the recession in the first half of 2022 ended. The last two quarters have been above 3% (!) and some forecasts expect another 3%+ figure for the First Quarter of 2024. With annual population growth around 0.7%, any GDP growth above that amount is exceptional. The chance of a recession occurring this year remains slim to nil. It certainly won’t occur in the first half of this year.
STOCKS – The Dow 30 continues its march towards 40,000. I never did see anyone else predict 40,000 this year. I suspect there are a few others like me out there somewhere. As they saay, never count your chickens before they hatch. 38k+ is not 40k. But, the stock market is saying the economy this Summer should be extremely strong.
The recession mongers couldn’t have been more wrong for the past 20 months. They will continue to be wrong into the foreseeable future.
Shalom,
The Mann
Mann Overboard

THE REMAINDER OF 2023 – BANKS & HOUSING

JULY 30, 2023 – This is my 3rd and last post regarding my forecasts for the remainder of 2023. Today’s topics are banks and housing.
BANKS – I have been saying since the SVB/SBNY closings that week after week goes by without any closures. Finally(!), last week we had a bank in Kansas get closed down by the FDIC. Also, PacWest was acquired. At this point, we remain closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people.
As for CRE loan defaults, I have dealt with an office building (100% leased – it appears the borrower went bankrupt for some other reason) and two churches (same loan). We shall see if this picks up.
The Regional Bank Index (KRE) continues to soar and is about 20% above the low set the Monday after the SVB/SBNY closings. It is a full 40%+ (!) above its most recent low. Please let all of them people that told you that banks were going down the tubes what you think of their opinions! They have cost the masses a 20%-40%+ return – in less than 4 months at that!!!
As an aside, the market is saying that it does not believe there will be a CRE loan debacle for banks. Either not many CRE loans will default and/or banks are well prepared and capitalized to handle the defaults.
HOUSING – Let me just present a bunch of stats that clearly shows the strength of the housing market. New home sales increased 28.4% from July 2022 to June 2023. According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices are within 1% of their June 2022 peak. Redfin reports home prices are up 2.1% from a year ago. The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index was up 0.7% month-over-month in June. It has been up every month this year. Annual appreciation is at 2.9% and projected to increase to 6%-7% by yearend. The Homebuilders Stock Index is up an incredible 60% (!)from last year’s lows. Those who forecast a crash in the housing market continue to be way off the mark.
SUMMARY – With both bank and housing stocks at their highs, the markets are saying both industries will do very well through year end and into early next year. There is no sign yet of a slowdown occurring for either industry. Sadly, all of those economists, market forecasters, and pundits have kept the public from making 20%-60%+ returns in these industries. But, that has been the norm since the world’s largest casino came into existence.
To sum up up the 3 posts:
Inflation will be stubborn and rise slightly over the remainder of the year – probably stay in the 3.5%-4.0% range.
The economy has a near zero chance of going into a recession. Yes, GDP will slow down from the amazing 2.2% rate that occurred in the first half of the year. I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025. I suspect that a year from now the broken-clock recession mongers will have given up and admitted the economy is strong, et al. Just in time to be wrong again:)
And, per above, banks and housing should be rock solid into the 1st Quarter of 2024.
I will provide updates per usual. But, will revisit the 6-month forecasts (for 1st and 2nd Quarter 2024) around the Holidays. Yes folks, less than 5 months til Christmas:)
Shalom,
The Mann

Mann Overboard

THE REMAINDER OF 2023 – ECONOMY

UPDATE JULY 27, 2023 – 2nd Quarter came in at a whopping +2.4%. Far exceeding expectations that were below +1.5%. So, we have an economy that has expanded, not contracted, this year! The stock market told us this would happen. For anyone you know that has been predicting a recession in 2023, please ask them if they admit they have been totally wrong. People need to admit their errors and stop being broken clocks. If they don’t, they have no credibility. As I note in my original post below, it is likely the current forecast of +0.5% and 0.0% for the remaining two quarters will change to the upside as the year carries on. Will the economy slowdown from +2.0%-2.4%? Yes. The stock market has said it will be stagnant the remainder of the year. But, will we see two negative figures in a row? The odds are near zero. Plan accordingly.

JULY 22, 2023 – It is all but guaranteed that the recession mongers will be wrong about such occurring in 2023. As I forecast earlier in the year, by Summer (i.e. now) those people would begin to move their prediction to a recession occurring in 2024. Enough time wasted on the large group of media and economists that are broken records.
So, what does the future hold. The past 12 months have been very easy to predict for the economy, housing, and inflation. IF you just read what the stock market (i.e. Dow 30) is telling us. Yes, it is that simple. And, yet, 99%+ of the public and pundits don’t do it.
The Dow 30 peaked in December 2022 after bottoming in October 2022. That told us to expect weakness thru April 2023. Sure enough, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the associated bank panic occurred in March and April.
Since December 2022, the stock market trended sideways for 8 months. Just this past week the Dow finally broke thru the 35,000 level after about 7(!) failed attempts. So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the economy is expected to be stagnant for the last 6 months of this year. And, based on this upside breakout, the economy should see an uptick in the 1st Quarter of 2024. This is a very early interpretation as the breakout just occurred this week and is only a small amount above the December 2022 high.
Is the stock market, and thus smart money, correct? Yes. As usual. 1st Quarter GDP was +2.0% (revised from the initial report of 1.3%). 2nd Quarter GDP is project to be +1.3%-1.4%. But, 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP are expected to be barely in positive territory. Exactly what the stock market has told us would be the case for the past 8 months – a stagnant Dow 30 forecasts a stagnant economy 6 months out.
Forecasts obviously vary. I have seen most to be around +0.5% for the 3rd Quarter and 0% for the 4th Quarter. But, I think those forecasts are trending up due to the strengthening housing market (that will be my next post, so please come back:) ).
The recession mongers will be screaming they told us the economy was caving. One, they have been calling for a recession for over a year (right after the actual recession just ended!) and GDP has come nowhere two negative quarterly figures in a row. Two, the stock market has forecast the ups and downs with 100% accuracy. It hasn’t been a broken record.
Based on my forecast that the CPI will trend up the remainder of the year, I suspect the market will tell the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate several more times. Note, the public is wrong to blame Powell for raising rates. He is simply doing what the Fed has done forever – following exactly what the market has told it to do. So, the market has obviously priced in all Fed actions ahead of the Fed meetings because the market told them what to do at the meetings!!!
But, I digress…..my point is the recession mongers will remain a broken record as they will continue to say that the Fed’s raising of interest rates is going to push us into a recession. As of today, the stock market says they are wrong and a recession is not going to happen. I put my money on the stock market instead of all of those economists that have been 100% wrong for the past year (and longer).
I believe my forecast of the housing market will be my next post. I will probably combine it with a brief discussion on banks.
Shalom,
The Mann