Tag Archives: American Enterprise Institute

THE REMAINDER OF 2023 – BANKS & HOUSING

JULY 30, 2023 – This is my 3rd and last post regarding my forecasts for the remainder of 2023. Today’s topics are banks and housing.
BANKS – I have been saying since the SVB/SBNY closings that week after week goes by without any closures. Finally(!), last week we had a bank in Kansas get closed down by the FDIC. Also, PacWest was acquired. At this point, we remain closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people.
As for CRE loan defaults, I have dealt with an office building (100% leased – it appears the borrower went bankrupt for some other reason) and two churches (same loan). We shall see if this picks up.
The Regional Bank Index (KRE) continues to soar and is about 20% above the low set the Monday after the SVB/SBNY closings. It is a full 40%+ (!) above its most recent low. Please let all of them people that told you that banks were going down the tubes what you think of their opinions! They have cost the masses a 20%-40%+ return – in less than 4 months at that!!!
As an aside, the market is saying that it does not believe there will be a CRE loan debacle for banks. Either not many CRE loans will default and/or banks are well prepared and capitalized to handle the defaults.
HOUSING – Let me just present a bunch of stats that clearly shows the strength of the housing market. New home sales increased 28.4% from July 2022 to June 2023. According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices are within 1% of their June 2022 peak. Redfin reports home prices are up 2.1% from a year ago. The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index was up 0.7% month-over-month in June. It has been up every month this year. Annual appreciation is at 2.9% and projected to increase to 6%-7% by yearend. The Homebuilders Stock Index is up an incredible 60% (!)from last year’s lows. Those who forecast a crash in the housing market continue to be way off the mark.
SUMMARY – With both bank and housing stocks at their highs, the markets are saying both industries will do very well through year end and into early next year. There is no sign yet of a slowdown occurring for either industry. Sadly, all of those economists, market forecasters, and pundits have kept the public from making 20%-60%+ returns in these industries. But, that has been the norm since the world’s largest casino came into existence.
To sum up up the 3 posts:
Inflation will be stubborn and rise slightly over the remainder of the year – probably stay in the 3.5%-4.0% range.
The economy has a near zero chance of going into a recession. Yes, GDP will slow down from the amazing 2.2% rate that occurred in the first half of the year. I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025. I suspect that a year from now the broken-clock recession mongers will have given up and admitted the economy is strong, et al. Just in time to be wrong again:)
And, per above, banks and housing should be rock solid into the 1st Quarter of 2024.
I will provide updates per usual. But, will revisit the 6-month forecasts (for 1st and 2nd Quarter 2024) around the Holidays. Yes folks, less than 5 months til Christmas:)
Shalom,
The Mann

INFLATION FORECAST, BANKS & HOUSING

UPDATE – JUNE 20, 2023 – I saw a few items of data today in regard to housing. Here they are. No need to add any commentary.

Construction on new American homes surged 21.7% in May, as homebuilders ramp up building single-family homes to meet strong demand from buyers. Housing starts rose to a 1.63 million annual pace last month from 1.34 million in April.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in June rose five points to 55, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the sixth straight month that builder confidence has increased and is the first time that sentiment levels have surpassed the midpoint of 50 since July 2022.

I saw a chart of this index going back to 1985. Every time the index crossed back above 50 it went up to about the 70 level before putting in a major top. The thing is it took about 1-5 years to get to that new top. Slow, but steady it goes. If it follows history, that means we are in for an extended period of positive sentiment by home builders for at least the next few years. As a side note, there is at least a 50/50 chance of the index dipping back below 50 before resuming its upward trend. This would be a great head fake to keep the recession screamers pessimistic.

JUNE 14, 2023 – As forecast, inflation dropped about a full percentage point and will do so again next month.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is also 4.4%. These figures are above the annualized rate (4.0%) and thus indicate the decline in the annual CPI is likely to reverse after next month’s figure is reported.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 3.0%-3.1%. I like the data and am confident the next reading will be in that range.
This will finally be the July 12th figure I forecast over 6 months ago. My original expectation of a sub 2% reading will be wrong. Albeit, 3% is alot closer than those that were predicting 10%+ this year.
As I mentioned last month, it looks like inflation will rebound in the second half of the year to 4%+. There are a few indicators that are pointing towards significant deflation (e.g. diesel prices down 30% yoy). If this occurs, there is a chance inflation can stay around 3%.
BANKS – Regarding banks, week after week goes by without any closures. At this point, we are much closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people. I am lucky to have some incredible bank and credit union clients. Talking with them there has been almost no CRE loans going under. Even in good times, loans fail. So far, nothing significant has occurred. Yet, the world is predicting CRE loan defaults will be the next major shoe to drop. I just don’t see it. I will make a post with some numbers explaining why I don’t see the refi issue resulting in loan defaults.
The Regional Bank Index (KRE) has exploded and is about 7% above the low set the Monday after the SVB/SBNY closings. It is a full 27% (!) above its most recent low. And, you probably saw the headline that the stock market entered Bull Market territory (i.e. up 20%+ from its low) last week. I have been saying this was the case since just after the October lows.
HOUSING – The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index was up 0.7% month-over-month in April. It has been up every month this year. The Homebuilders Stock Index is up an incredible 50% (!)from last year’s lows. Those who forecast a crash in the housing market appear to be way off. As I forecast about a year ago, the housing market would slow way down and possibly go slightly negative (that has occurred in the hottest markets). A year later I am seeing a slightly improving market ahead.
SUMMARY – Sadly, if you have been waiting for the Recession of 2023 to occur (which as I have noted for 9+ months now, it was the Recession of 2022), you have already missed out on the stock market being up 20%, homebuilder stocks up 50%, and those dreaded bank stocks being up say 5%-25% from possible buying points. Even if a recession occurs later in the year (I still do not see two consecutive quarters of GDP being likely), the opportunity to make a large profit on your investments has already occurred. Plus, the stock market predicts the future 6 months out, and it is saying zero chance of a recession.
It seems like a longshot, but the wave theory I follow seems to indicate the possibility of a huge stock market rally directly in front of us. That is my interpretation. Regretfully, my idol who brought this theory to the forefront 44 years ago sees a huge leg down ahead. I hate disagreeing with him. We shall see how it turns out. The stock market has been in a boring trading range for several months now. It seems to be wrestling with the indicators that point up and those that point down at the same time. The future is never easy to predict:) Not even for the smart money.
Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann

HOUSING AND AN ITEM OF TRIVIA

APRIL 19, 2023 – Let’s get the trivia out of the way. India has surpassed China in population. I didn’t know it was even close. Sort of reminds me of the day about 30 years ago when WalMart surpassed Sears and KMart (you youngsters are asking what is Sears and KMart 🙂 ) on the same day to become the #1 retailer. As for the housing market…
Freddie Mac said the 30-year mortgage rate declined for the 5th straight week – now at 6.27%. It is like pulling teeth to get it below 6%. But, regardless, it has been lower ever since the day I called the high last year.
According to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), home prices increased for the 3rd straight month. This follows monthly declines from July to December 2022. As I have noted many times, the market predicts the future 6 months out. As an aside, I heard an analyst today say the market does not predict the future. It is people like him that I need so I can have someone on the other side of my trades:)
So, in regard to housing, the market peaked in December 2021. Thus, it said the housing market should peak in June 2022. If you read my posts last June, you will see I was screaming that a top was occurring by the very minute.
After a 40% decline, the same indicator bottomed in June 2022. Thus, predicting a bottom for housing in December 2022. Is it coincidence that the AEI home price index bottomed in December and has gone up for 3 straight months? Sure, let’s call it coincidence:) As an aside, the same indicator is up 35% from its low.
This is a great lesson on how the market takes advantage of the public. At the end of 2021, the smart money cashed out and enjoyed a 40% decline in housing stock prices. All along, the public was hearing every day how strong the housing market was. Then, for the 2nd half of last year while the public was hearing how the housing market was crumbling due to rising interest rates, the smart money made 35% on housing stocks rising. It is such an easy game to play. As long as the public always follows the news…and it will.
So, remember, this Fall the news will change from being negative on housing to being positive. Suddenly, the public will have found a way to sell their houses that had a 4% mortgage rate and buy a house at a 7% mortgage rate. Remember, the market predicted that news today – 6 months before you hear it from the pundits. Also, this is not the first time in history that people owned homes with mortgages at x% and years later had to sell and buy a home at a mortgage rate of X+3%. People adjust. Just buy a lower price home! Everyone acts like this is the end of the world having mortgage rates 3% higher. It isn’t. The sun continues to come up in the East every day.
As I mentioned last year, the decline in housing prices would be less than expected because of a lack of inventory. According to Redfin, the number of listings has declined at a double-digit rate for 8 straight months! Geez, are there any homes for sale anywhere! According to the NAHB, 1/3 of homes for sale are new construction. The norm is 10%. Do you think the market knew that would be the case when they started buying housing stocks last June? Yes, of course.
I said last year the public and pundits would be baffled by home prices not declining much, if at all, while the average mortgage payment was up 50%. Logically, home prices need to decline 33% to keep the mortgage payment the same. That has not and will not happen.
All of the above is explained by Socionomics (not the same as socioeconomics). Thankfully, I started following Robert Prechter 43 years ago and watched him develop the Theory of Socionomics. No matter how much is published on the subject, the public just will never learn to do the opposite of what they have been doing for thousands of years. I am sure you can find Mr. Prechter’s books on the subject on Amazon, eBay, etc. If you want to change the way you look at everything, look into this subject.
Lastly, I want to mention an interesting conflict in indicators that will play out this year with one side or the other being wrong. The stock market bottomed last October (so 6 months later is right now and I saw a survey that said the public is the most pessimistic about the future that they have ever been….of course, if you follow the stock market you knew that would be the case 6 months in advance!). It is up about 20% from its lows. It continues to say no recession this year and, in fact, the economy should improve. Now, the opposite is occurring with the tightening credit market. Virtually ever recession has been preceded by banks tightening credit. This indicator is screaming for a 100% certain recession in the second half of this year. So, either the smart money is wrong or this indicator will fail this time. Something has to give. I bet on socionomics and the smart money (aka stock market). Which side are you betting on?
Til next time…
Shalom,
The Mann

STEP 4 IN THE HOUSING MARKET HAS OCCURRED

DECEMBER 7, 2022 – On June 14th, I posted that Step 2 in the housing market cycle had occurred. Then on October 3rd, I noted we had entered Step 3. I also predicted we would get to Step 4 well before anyone expected.
Today, we are officially in Step 4. Home prices have declined nationwide. The acceleration is underway. Below is the factual data from the American Enterprise Institute. I will revisit this topic sometime in 2023 when I start to see indications of a bottom. In the interim, sit back and enjoy the bloodbath. A cleansing is always needed and we are getting one.
Shalom and Happy Holidays,
The Mann
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It’s official: The sudden reversal in home prices that began this spring has hit every one of America’s major metros with declines from their recent all-time peaks. What’s remarkable is the gigantic range of the pullbacks from region to region, and how the biggest losers are due to keep falling fast, while the metros that so far have taken the most modest hits should face only relatively small retreats from their pinnacles by the close of 2023.
That’s the evidence from a report just issued by the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center. Each month, the AEI measures the total change in home prices in 58 markets from their previous summits. The new chart shows that 45 of those cities crested to cap a synchronized spiral between April and June, though a handful peaked later, including Miami and North Port in July, and Greenville, Charleston and Cincinnati in September. For the first time in October, every one of the 58 markets registered a fall from their high points, ranging from -12.9% in San Jose to -0.5% in Memphis. ((Forbes))

STEP 3 IN THE HOUSING MARKET HAS OCCURRED

OCTOBER 3, 2022 – My June 14th post about Step 2 occurring said it would be easy to look back in 3 months and see that the housing market had peaked. Sure enough, 3 months later everyone can now see a top is in place and a correction has been well underway.
Step 3 is an acceleration in the slowdown of price appreciation. A summary of indicators follows.
The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index peaked at 17.0% in March and declined to 11.3% in August. AEI projects it will decline to 4%-6% by December.
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller House Price Index fell 0.4% on a month-over-month basis in July for the first time in 10 years. On a year-over-year basis, the increase in home prices decelerated by the most in the index’s history, said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI.
Lastly, the FHFA House Price Index dropped 0.6% in July vs. June.
These are early signs that Step 4 will be upon us sooner than later. That is when the annual change goes from appreciation to depreciation. With mortgage rates soaring towards 7% the decline in home prices is more certain than ever.
What will baffle people is the continued low supply of available housing combined with prices declining. As I have long said, you don’t have to buy, but often you do have to sell. With a lack of buyers, sellers will continue to lower prices. In September, the number of households likely to buy a house in the next 6 months fell to its lowest level since 2010.
Shalom,
The Mann

FANNIE MAE STUDY CONCLUDES NO RACIAL BIAS IN APPRAISALS

MARCH 12, 2002 – Now, two studies of millions of appraisals by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Fannie Mae have concluded that there is no racial bias in real estate appraisals.
For those involved in the industry, this comes as no surprise. It is essentially impossible for real estate appraisers to be biased. Probably 95% of the time the appraiser knows nothing about the physical characteristics of the borrower. Nearly 100% of the time the appraisal reviewers know nothing about the borrower. And ALL appraisals must be approved by a reviewer.
Also, the market sets prices and all appraisers do is analyze recent comparable sales and arrive at a value for the subject. Which, in purchase situations, is equal to or higher than the sales price 95%+ of the time.
Racist organizations like the Brookings Institution and others that are falsely complaining about appraisal bias need to ‘follow the science’ as they like to say. Scientific studies 100% conclusively say there is no appraisal bias.
Maxine Waters and President Biden owe the appraisal industry an apology. And so does the Appraisal Institute for not supporting its own members.
The real estate appraisal industry is the gold standard for an unbiased profession. We have been the independent referee for 80+ years.
Lastly, we all know about the Fair Housing Act, redlining, discrimination being illegal, et al. To say we need to be educated about such is ridiculous. If you have lived in America since the 1970’s, you know all about fair housing laws and what is and is not discrimination.
The true racists are those that accuse everyone else of being racist. These people need to be exposed and told where to stick their unfounded claims. They should be sued for slander and defamation, also.
Hey, Appraisal institute, get a backbone and stand up for your members! There is no legislation that can change 4,000+ years of economic theory. The appraisal industry does not need to make any changes. It is already fully diverse and inclusive of people of all socio-economic classes (I grew up in mobile homes and am Jewish….I have the low-priced housing and minority characteristics covered!). Remember, skin-color and the only two genders have nothing to do with diversity and inclusivity.
Shalom,
The Mann

IMHO, THE BEST SOURCE OF HOUSING DATA IS THE AEI

June 20, 2019 – I have watched the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) develop their housing research over the past decade.  Major organizations provide them with all of the data that is out there and AEI simply analyzes and reports what it says.  Unlike NAR, no bias in the research and reporting.  The AEI is 100% transparent in how they arrive at their indices and use the data.  I encourage everyone to start using this as their definitive source for information on the housing market.  The following is directly from AEI (as the links might not work in me cutting and pasting their announcement, you can go to their website at www.AEI.org):

AEI Housing Center analyzes housing markets in the 60 largest US metropolitan areas

Housing markets are inherently local, making them notoriously difficult to analyze due to the lack of reliable data at the local level. The second quarterly release of a new dataset from the AEI Housing Center aims to fill this void by analyzing housing market data for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, as well as for the nation as a whole. The current dataset looks at housing data through 2019:Q1.

AEI Housing Center Codirector Edward Pinto and Senior Research Analyst Tobias Peter explain “Our goal is to provide the public, media, and decision makers with accurate and reliable metrics to assess the state of their local housing market in near-real time. A well-informed market place and its participants will aid in promoting sustainable homeownership.

Among the national Housing Market Indicators for 2019:Q1:
  • Rate of house price appreciation (HPA): 3.8%
  • Mortgage risk index: 12.1%
  • Share of buyers of entry level homes: 57%
  • Average sale price for entry level homes: $194,000
  • Share of new construction sales (compared to all home sales): 10.5%
The Housing Market Indicators for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, along with all associated data, are available on an interactive website here.

This was made possible by AEI’s new merged property and mortgage financing national dataset, which consists of nearly 35 million home purchase transactions.

The data are updated quarterly. The next release of Housing Market Indicators, which will analyze housing data for 2019:Q2, is scheduled for September.
Edward J. Pinto
Codirector, AEI Housing Center
240-423-2848

New AEI dataset: Housing Market Indicators in the 60 largest US metropolitan areas

April 9, 2019 – In my opinion, the AEI provides the most neutral analysis of the housing market.  They likely have the most data.  Unlike NAR, there is no bias.  Below is their major announcement today.  I hope you find their reports useful.

Just to be transparent – I am not a member of AEI (not even sure if such exists).  I do not contribute to them.  I have attended some of their meetings on housing.

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New AEI dataset analyzes the 60 largest US metropolitan areas

Housing markets are inherently local, making them notoriously difficult to analyze due to the lack of reliable data at the local level. A new dataset from the AEI Housing Center, the first in a series of quarterly reports, aims to fill this void by analyzing housing market data for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, as well as for the nation as a whole. The current dataset looks at housing data from 2018:Q4.

AEI Housing Center Codirector Edward Pinto and Senior Research Analyst Tobias Peter explain “Our goal is to provide the public, media, and decision makers with accurate and reliable metrics to assess the state of their local housing market in near-real time. A well-informed market place and its participants will aid in promoting sustainable homeownership.”

Among the national Housing Market Indicators for 2018:Q4:

  • Rate of house price appreciation (HPA): 3.9%
  • Mortgage risk index: 11.1%
  • Share of buyers of entry level homes: 55%
  • Average sale price for entry level homes: $197,000
  • Share of new construction sales (compared to all home sales): 11.2%

The Housing Market Indicators for the 60 largest US metropolitan areas, along with all associated data, are available on an interactive website here.

This was made possible by AEI’s new merged property and mortgage financing national dataset, which consists of over 34 million home purchase transactions.

The data are updated quarterly. The next release of Housing Market Indicators, which will analyze housing data for 2019:Q1, is scheduled for May.

Codirector, AEI Center on Housing Markets and Finance
240-423-2848