APRIL 4, 2025 – OK, it is tough for me to stay away when a nice bear market is going on:) It is almost exactly 5 years to the last time we saw a falling knife market. Back then, I believe I was the first and only person to predict well in advance that we would see the first ever 2,000- and 3,000-point down days in the Dow 30. Today, we had another 2,000-point down day. I have constantly explained that the market predicts things 6 months into the future. So, let’s see what it has been saying about the economy.
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: housing
HOUSING MATH DOESN’T ADD UP
UPDATE JULY 17, 2024 – So far, no objections to what I wrote below. I wanted to add some data. According to Zillow, inventory is higher than last year in 48 out of the 50 Major Metropolitan areas. It rose last month in 45 of the 50 markets. If we are so short on housing, why aren’t all of the houses for sale bought instantly? How can the inventory possibly increase? And, no, it is not because of high (not really high, around where they should be) mortgage rates. Simply put, the forever housing shortage rant is a hoax. False information. Propaganda.
JULY 1, 2024 – Here is your chance to email me why NAR and the NAHB may be even remotely right about our housing shortage and why I am wrong. I researched the intraweb, as my step-daughter jokingly refers to it, and found that NAR has said we have a shortage of 4.5 to 5.5 million housing units. Their logic is the annual number of houses built since the Year 2000 has been below what was needed. To paraphrase Henry Ford, that is bunk.
Let’s look at some facts and some math. First, the demand for houses by 18-55 years olds today is about 25% (!) of what it was when Baby Boomers were the same age. Second, annual population growth has declined significantly from around 2% at the start of this century to 0.53% last year. I have seen as high as 0.7% in the past few years.
Yes, total population has obviously increased over time. But, it is not double or triple what it was 20 or 40 years ago. Demand for housing is about 1/3 to 1/4th of what it used to be. So, you cannot continue to forecast based on 1980s or 1990s rates. As I note in other posts, annual GDP of +3% or +4% has been replaced with a good-excellent range of +1% to +2%. Everything is slowing down and will continue to slow down for decades ahead.
To the math….As of today, the intraweb says we have 341,814,420 people. Let’s say last year’s growth rate was low and the 0.7% rates before that were high. We will use 0.6%. (I note that CoStar uses +0.5% annually for the next 5 years.)
That means this year’s population growth is about 2,050,000 people. Average household size was 2.53 people in 2020. It too has been declining for decades. Let’s assume it is down to 2.40 today. The math says we need about 850,000 new housing units for the upcoming years.
Laughingly, NAR says we need 1.8 million new housing units and since only 1.4 million are being built we will add to our shortage. In fact, based on real math, we will have an oversupply of 550,000 housing units brought onto the market this year alone!!!! Every report I see shows apartment vacancy rates are way up from 3 years ago (about doubled in past 3 years nationwide!) and new homebuilders have a crisis of oversupply. NO ONE but NAR suggests we are not building enough housing units.
So, here’s the riddle to me. If we are short millions of housing units, wouldn’t vacancy rates for SFRs and apartment properties decline each year? If we aren’t building enough units, wouldn’t vacancy go down? Wouldn’t we see people lined up to get into the next apartment or SFR unit that becomes available?
According to CoStar, the USA had 927,018 vacant apartment units in 2021. As of today, we have 1,544,497 vacant apartment units. Over 600,000 apartment units have become vacant in a period where NAR screams that every year we are increasing our shortage by hundreds of thousands of units. Where is the logic? This doesn’t even include our 10 million vacant SFRs! (BTW, this count does NOT include second/vacation homes.)
I have contended for years that if we didn’t build a single housing unit nationwide for 5-10 years we still would not absorb all of our vacant units.
I look forward to your thoughts. The one I will say that doesn’t work for me is the vacant units are not where the people want to be. Some may be. But, most of the new supply for decades has been in the Sun Belt where the greatest demand has been. And people can live anywhere and move anywhere (especially since 2020). A few units might be old and badly located. But, old product is removed from the stockpile annually.
I will leave this one at that. Depending on feedback, I might follow up with another post on the subject.
Shalom,
The Mann
GeorgeRMann@Aol.com
TO REITERATE – MORTGAGE RATES ARE NOT AN ISSUE
MARCH 22, 2024 – The following is from an article by Gabriella Cruz-Martinez of Yahoo Finance on March 21st:
“Sales of previously occupied US homes gained momentum in February as buyers accepted the new normal of higher mortgage rates.
Existing home sales surged 9.5% in February from the month before to an annualized rate of 4.38 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Thursday. That was almost 6% higher than a year earlier and marked the largest monthly increase in a year.
Sales picked up last month, even as mortgage rates flirted with 7%.”
My June 15, 2023 post titled “CAN PEOPLE AFFORD 7% MORTGAGE RATES?” appears to have been accurate and played out as I predicted. I will simply show a few quotes here. You can revisit the post if you want to read it in its entirety.
A side note, the S&P HomeBuilders Index is at all-time highs. It is up almost 75% since the October low. Even with the supply of new homes soaring, the market has no worries of a housing bust occurring this year.
Shalom,
The Mann
Excerpts from my June 15, 2023 post:
JUNE 15, 2023 – YES! The simple answer is, of course!
I saw a survey this week where people said they needed mortgage rates to drop to about 4% for them to afford a new house. As my friend The Red-Shoe Economist, KC Conway, would say ‘I call BBQ-Sauce!’
People can afford a 7% mortgage rate. They can afford a 10% mortgage rate! Us old-timers remember when a rate below 10% was a bargain.
By this time next year when the world realizes the day of artificially low interest rates is history and will not return, they will simply adjust to living with 7%-8%+ mortgage rates and supply and demand analyses will work the same as they did before. People adjust. They always have. It’s just easier to complain before facing reality and adjusting the way they do things. Human nature.
“Sales of previously occupied US homes gained momentum in February as buyers accepted the new normal of higher mortgage rates.
Existing home sales surged 9.5% in February from the month before to an annualized rate of 4.38 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Thursday. That was almost 6% higher than a year earlier and marked the largest monthly increase in a year.
Sales picked up last month, even as mortgage rates flirted with 7%.”
My June 15, 2023 post titled “CAN PEOPLE AFFORD 7% MORTGAGE RATES?” appears to have been accurate and played out as I predicted. I will simply show a few quotes here. You can revisit the post if you want to read it in its entirety.
A side note, the S&P HomeBuilders Index is at all-time highs. It is up almost 75% since the October low. Even with the supply of new homes soaring, the market has no worries of a housing bust occurring this year.
Shalom,
The Mann
Excerpts from my June 15, 2023 post:
JUNE 15, 2023 – YES! The simple answer is, of course!
I saw a survey this week where people said they needed mortgage rates to drop to about 4% for them to afford a new house. As my friend The Red-Shoe Economist, KC Conway, would say ‘I call BBQ-Sauce!’
People can afford a 7% mortgage rate. They can afford a 10% mortgage rate! Us old-timers remember when a rate below 10% was a bargain.
By this time next year when the world realizes the day of artificially low interest rates is history and will not return, they will simply adjust to living with 7%-8%+ mortgage rates and supply and demand analyses will work the same as they did before. People adjust. They always have. It’s just easier to complain before facing reality and adjusting the way they do things. Human nature.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR HOUSING
DECEMBER 27, 2023 – As I posted last February, on a percentage basis, population growth is 75% lower than it was in the 1980’s (Baby Boomers). Last week, I saw a stat showing the demand for houses by Millennials in the prime age group of 25 to 44 years old is over 80% lower than when Baby Boomers were at the same age.
Combine this with the fact that spec activity on the part of homebuilders is 1/3 higher than before 2020 and has only been exceeded by the years 2005 thru 2008!!!!
Please explain to me how we have a housing shortage when we have almost no demand for new houses and an insane number of new houses being built at the same time. Not to mention the 10 million or so vacant houses we have in the country.
You have to hand it to NAR and NAHB on perpetuating the false rhetoric that we need more housing. Need more affordable housing. And so on. I guess we can adapt that old joke to NAR and NAHB as to when you know they are lying…
Here’s to a great 2024 for everyone!
Shalom,
The Mann
R.I.P. RECESSION PREDICTORS – YOU WERE DEAD WRONG!
DECEMBER 15, 2023 – First off, happy birthday to my dear wife.
Back in April and June, I mentioned that the wave theory I follow showed a strong rally ahead. It would require us breaking through the all-time highs by a wide margin. This week the Dow 30 achieved new highs and is above 37,000 for the first time ever. 40k and possibly 44k in 2024 are on the table. They have been for over 6 months.
With the information below it is time to 100% emphatically declare anyone that has forecast a recession for the past 18 months and into 2024 dead wrong. Their analysis is totally in error. Just fess up and admit with hat in hand you have no clue what you were talking about. You will feel better:) On to where the data stands and what it is telling us.
BANKS – To date, we have had two bank closures that I am aware of. One was strange as it was not FDIC-insured. We will be ending the year much closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people. I think we will be able to say the same next December.
As for CRE loan defaults, I have dealt with about 5 bad loans. There has been no consistency as to why the loans went south. I am seeing nothing that indicates a lot of foreclosures nor anything specific to a property type.
Amazingly, the Regional Bank Index (KRE) is up 58% from its yearly low and is back above where it was before the SVB/SBNY closings. Remember, buy when there is blood in the streets. It worked again.
To reiterate, the market is saying that it does not believe there will be a CRE loan debacle for banks. Either not many CRE loans will default and/or banks are well prepared and capitalized to handle the defaults.
HOUSING – Home prices have been up all year and the rate of appreciation is increasing. It isn’t much. That is a good sign as it can be sustained into 2024.
The Homebuilders Stock Index was up over 5% one day this week and is now up an incredible 62% (!)from last year’s lows. On top of that, this is an all-time high.
Those who forecast a crash in the housing market continue to be way off the mark. As I said all along, 7% interest rates are nothing to worry about.
INTEREST RATES – Bonds bottomed on October 23rd. A strong rally has dropped rates by about 100bp already. A minor correction should start soon. Then after the new year, we will continue the decline in interest rates. The target is about 25-125bp lower than we are today.
INFLATION – The December report came in at 3.1%, well below my forecast of 3.6%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.9%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower. However, continue reading.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 3.5%-3.6%. The January report should show annual CPI for 2023 to be around 3.5%. Then from the February report on into the Summer, the CPI should crumble towards 2%.
SUMMARY – With the Dow 30, bank, and housing stocks at their highs, the markets are saying all should be well through the first half of 2024. The economy is supposed to be looking good in an Election Year. That looks to be the case again.
I will reprint this statement from a post a few months ago: I put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025. The first year of the president cycle often sees an economic downturn. I suspect that a year from now the broken-clock recession mongers will have given up and admitted the economy is strong, et al. Just in time to be wrong again:)
Happy Hannukah, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
THE REMAINDER OF 2023 – BANKS & HOUSING
JULY 30, 2023 – This is my 3rd and last post regarding my forecasts for the remainder of 2023. Today’s topics are banks and housing.
BANKS – I have been saying since the SVB/SBNY closings that week after week goes by without any closures. Finally(!), last week we had a bank in Kansas get closed down by the FDIC. Also, PacWest was acquired. At this point, we remain closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people.
As for CRE loan defaults, I have dealt with an office building (100% leased – it appears the borrower went bankrupt for some other reason) and two churches (same loan). We shall see if this picks up.
The Regional Bank Index (KRE) continues to soar and is about 20% above the low set the Monday after the SVB/SBNY closings. It is a full 40%+ (!) above its most recent low. Please let all of them people that told you that banks were going down the tubes what you think of their opinions! They have cost the masses a 20%-40%+ return – in less than 4 months at that!!!
As an aside, the market is saying that it does not believe there will be a CRE loan debacle for banks. Either not many CRE loans will default and/or banks are well prepared and capitalized to handle the defaults.
HOUSING – Let me just present a bunch of stats that clearly shows the strength of the housing market. New home sales increased 28.4% from July 2022 to June 2023. According to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices are within 1% of their June 2022 peak. Redfin reports home prices are up 2.1% from a year ago. The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index was up 0.7% month-over-month in June. It has been up every month this year. Annual appreciation is at 2.9% and projected to increase to 6%-7% by yearend. The Homebuilders Stock Index is up an incredible 60% (!)from last year’s lows. Those who forecast a crash in the housing market continue to be way off the mark.
SUMMARY – With both bank and housing stocks at their highs, the markets are saying both industries will do very well through year end and into early next year. There is no sign yet of a slowdown occurring for either industry. Sadly, all of those economists, market forecasters, and pundits have kept the public from making 20%-60%+ returns in these industries. But, that has been the norm since the world’s largest casino came into existence.
To sum up up the 3 posts:
Inflation will be stubborn and rise slightly over the remainder of the year – probably stay in the 3.5%-4.0% range.
The economy has a near zero chance of going into a recession. Yes, GDP will slow down from the amazing 2.2% rate that occurred in the first half of the year. I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025. I suspect that a year from now the broken-clock recession mongers will have given up and admitted the economy is strong, et al. Just in time to be wrong again:)
And, per above, banks and housing should be rock solid into the 1st Quarter of 2024.
I will provide updates per usual. But, will revisit the 6-month forecasts (for 1st and 2nd Quarter 2024) around the Holidays. Yes folks, less than 5 months til Christmas:)
Shalom,
The Mann
HAPPY 247th TO OUR REPUBLIC
JULY 4 – Hopefully, everyone had a fun and safe 4th of July. As we are half-way through this year, just a few items to mention.
I am seeing the first articles questioning all of those people that have been forecasting a recession. The tide is about to turn on all those who will have to admit they are wrong. People are finally starting to say hey we had the Recession last year. Thanks for joining the small club of us that have been saying this for a year now!
First Quarter GDP was revised upward from 1.3% to 2.0%. Second Quarter GDP forecasts are around 1% (Federal Reserve is projecting 1.3%). That would be an annual rate of 1.5%, which is in line with population growth. I am probably wrong about this, but I have always thought GDP growth should be about the same as population growth. If we look at a chart of the growth rates for both, we will see they have been declining in unison for 30+ years. I seriously doubt the last two quarters of this year will have negative GDP.
Lastly, Truflation analyzes 10 million data points (so they say) daily in comparison to the 80,000 data points (again, so they say) analyzed monthly for CPI. Thus, a quicker and more encompassing inflation rate is provided. Truflation is down to about 2% versus 4% for CPI, which will be about 3% in a few weeks when the next report comes out. Again, all of those people that a year ago were forecasting 10%+ inflation this year need to stand up and admit they were wrong.
Oh, the housing stock index I mention from time to time hit 80 this week. Up from a low of 53 last October. That is a nice 50% move the masses missed because the media was talking about the upcoming housing crash. Houses in my market are back to selling above list price and instantaneously, again. As I have posted, 7%+ mortgage rates are not an issue for people buying houses.
For a summary of recent economic data, this is worth checking out:
Strong economic data turns recession fears into recession doubts (yahoo.com)
Happy Birthday America!
Shalom,
The Mann
CAN PEOPLE AFFORD 7% MORTGAGE RATES?
JUNE 15, 2023 – YES! The simple answer is, of course!
I saw a survey this week where people said they needed mortgage rates to drop to about 4% for them to afford a new house. As my friend The Red-Shoe Economist, KC Conway, would say ‘I call BBQ-Sauce!’
People can afford a 7% mortgage rate. They can afford a 10% mortgage rate! Us old-timers remember when a rate below 10% was a bargain.
People buy a mortgage payment. They do not buy a home price. Everyone knows that. So, all people have to do is adjust the price downward (and the mortgage amount is obviously based on the purchase price…for simplicity, I will assume a 100% LTV since people do not put much money down).
Let’s say someone can afford a $2,000/month PITI (for now, assume no escrow). At a 4%, 30-year mortgage, they could buy a $418,922 house. Technically, a higher price if the LTV was less than 100%.
At a 7% mortgage rate, the $2,000/month PITI can buy a $300,615 house. The point is they can still afford a house at a higher interest rate. They just have to adjust the price category they look at. They do the same thing when interest rates go down – they look at houses pricier than they really need. Well, adjust in the other direction when rates go up! Life is so simple.
Also, one major benefit to the above that gets overlooked is it is alot easier to save for a down payment on a $300k house than a $420k house! People have a much easier time of getting into a new house when they adjust their price target downward.
Combine the above with a low inventory and you probably have an explanation for home prices rising every month this year. Demand remains strong. People can afford houses at the new interest rate level.
Lastly, I find the argument that the public cannot afford a house payment at 7% interest weak when they can afford to run up their credit card debt at 18.99%-26.99%+ interest rates!!!!!! Another way to more easily afford a mortgage payment at current rates is to not have credit card debt! Adjust your way of living. It’s that simple.
By this time next year when the world realizes the day of artificially low interest rates is history and will not return, they will simply adjust to living with 7%-8%+ mortgage rates and supply and demand analyses will work the same as they did before. People adjust. They always have. It’s just easier to complain before facing reality and adjusting the way they do things. Human nature.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION FORECAST, BANKS & HOUSING
MAY 11, 2023 – As forecast, inflation didn’t change much last month. But, did fall below 5.0%. Significant declines will occur over the next two months.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is high at 5.7%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.6%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (4.9%) and thus indicate the decline in the annual CPI should slow down after the next two months are in.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 4.1%-4.3%. I like the data and am confident the next reading will be in that range.
As for the July 12th forecast, the data now suggests a figure around 3.2%-3.4%. The odds for a figure around 2% are about nil, unless we have full blown deflation show up. Doubtful, but there are signs we may get surprise negative readings in the coming months. I will need to see it to believe it. After bottoming with the July 12th figure, it looks like inflation will rebound in the second half of the year to the 5%-6% range. That said, we will be far below the double-digit rates many people have been forecasting for the past year. However, this will make the Fed consider more rate increases. Something, the market is not pricing in at this time.
A bit of trivia. The annual CPI rate has decreased for 10 straight months. I am certain that streak will extend to 12 months. The only times such a streak occurred was in 1921 and 2012. Neither were around a recession or stock market crash.
BANKS – Regarding banks, week after week goes by without any closures. At this point, we are much closer to my forecast of 0-10 closures than the 176-200 closures forecast by many people. Pac West seems to be the bank on the hot seat right now. It is one of the ten banks I listed a few months ago.
The Regional Bank Index (KRE) broke down last week and is about 10%-15% below the low set the Monday after the SVB/SBNY closings. This is saying the market expects to see CRE loan losses (I am going to post about this soon) increase the remainder of the year. No surprise in that forecast.
HOUSING – The American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index was up 1.4% month-over-month in March. I believe it has been up every month this year. NAR reported that home prices increased in 70% of metro areas in the First Quarter of 2023. The Homebuilders Stock Index is up a full 40% from last year’s lows. Those who forecast a crash in the housing market appear to be way off. As I forecast about a year ago, the housing market would slow way down and possibly go slightly negative (that has occurred in the hottest markets). A year later I am seeing a slightly improving market ahead.
Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann
HOUSING AND AN ITEM OF TRIVIA
APRIL 19, 2023 – Let’s get the trivia out of the way. India has surpassed China in population. I didn’t know it was even close. Sort of reminds me of the day about 30 years ago when WalMart surpassed Sears and KMart (you youngsters are asking what is Sears and KMart 🙂 ) on the same day to become the #1 retailer. As for the housing market…
Freddie Mac said the 30-year mortgage rate declined for the 5th straight week – now at 6.27%. It is like pulling teeth to get it below 6%. But, regardless, it has been lower ever since the day I called the high last year.
According to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), home prices increased for the 3rd straight month. This follows monthly declines from July to December 2022. As I have noted many times, the market predicts the future 6 months out. As an aside, I heard an analyst today say the market does not predict the future. It is people like him that I need so I can have someone on the other side of my trades:)
So, in regard to housing, the market peaked in December 2021. Thus, it said the housing market should peak in June 2022. If you read my posts last June, you will see I was screaming that a top was occurring by the very minute.
After a 40% decline, the same indicator bottomed in June 2022. Thus, predicting a bottom for housing in December 2022. Is it coincidence that the AEI home price index bottomed in December and has gone up for 3 straight months? Sure, let’s call it coincidence:) As an aside, the same indicator is up 35% from its low.
This is a great lesson on how the market takes advantage of the public. At the end of 2021, the smart money cashed out and enjoyed a 40% decline in housing stock prices. All along, the public was hearing every day how strong the housing market was. Then, for the 2nd half of last year while the public was hearing how the housing market was crumbling due to rising interest rates, the smart money made 35% on housing stocks rising. It is such an easy game to play. As long as the public always follows the news…and it will.
So, remember, this Fall the news will change from being negative on housing to being positive. Suddenly, the public will have found a way to sell their houses that had a 4% mortgage rate and buy a house at a 7% mortgage rate. Remember, the market predicted that news today – 6 months before you hear it from the pundits. Also, this is not the first time in history that people owned homes with mortgages at x% and years later had to sell and buy a home at a mortgage rate of X+3%. People adjust. Just buy a lower price home! Everyone acts like this is the end of the world having mortgage rates 3% higher. It isn’t. The sun continues to come up in the East every day.
As I mentioned last year, the decline in housing prices would be less than expected because of a lack of inventory. According to Redfin, the number of listings has declined at a double-digit rate for 8 straight months! Geez, are there any homes for sale anywhere! According to the NAHB, 1/3 of homes for sale are new construction. The norm is 10%. Do you think the market knew that would be the case when they started buying housing stocks last June? Yes, of course.
I said last year the public and pundits would be baffled by home prices not declining much, if at all, while the average mortgage payment was up 50%. Logically, home prices need to decline 33% to keep the mortgage payment the same. That has not and will not happen.
All of the above is explained by Socionomics (not the same as socioeconomics). Thankfully, I started following Robert Prechter 43 years ago and watched him develop the Theory of Socionomics. No matter how much is published on the subject, the public just will never learn to do the opposite of what they have been doing for thousands of years. I am sure you can find Mr. Prechter’s books on the subject on Amazon, eBay, etc. If you want to change the way you look at everything, look into this subject.
Lastly, I want to mention an interesting conflict in indicators that will play out this year with one side or the other being wrong. The stock market bottomed last October (so 6 months later is right now and I saw a survey that said the public is the most pessimistic about the future that they have ever been….of course, if you follow the stock market you knew that would be the case 6 months in advance!). It is up about 20% from its lows. It continues to say no recession this year and, in fact, the economy should improve. Now, the opposite is occurring with the tightening credit market. Virtually ever recession has been preceded by banks tightening credit. This indicator is screaming for a 100% certain recession in the second half of this year. So, either the smart money is wrong or this indicator will fail this time. Something has to give. I bet on socionomics and the smart money (aka stock market). Which side are you betting on?
Til next time…
Shalom,
The Mann