NOVEMBER 25, 2023 – The markets instantly reversed a month ago. Just like they did last October when the Bear Market bottomed.
STOCK MARKET – Although the S&P 500 and NASDAQ went into a Bear Market, the Dow 30 avoided such. Since the October bottom, the Dow is up 9.5% and over 3,000 points. The NASDAQ is up over 15% and the S&P 500 over 11%. NASDAQ is at a new Bull Market high. The Dow and S&P 500 are within 1% of new Bull Market highs.
REGIONAL BANKS – The regional bank index ETF (KRE) is up 18% in the past month. But, still 11% below its Summer peak.
HOUSING – The housing ETF (XHB) is up 19% over the past month and within 3% of its Bull Market high.
Market action since August suggests we will have some economic trouble in the first quarter of 2024 followed by a continuation of the economic expansion that started in the Summer of 2022. 4th Quarter GDP is forecast to be just under +2%.
INTEREST RATES – Bonds also appeared to have bottomed on October 23rd. A strong rally appears ready to have a minor correction. Interest rates should continue to decline for the next 3 to 6 months. The decline will be significant.
Shalom,
The Mann