Tag Archives: Homes

STEP 2 IN THE HOUSING REVERSAL HAS OCCURRED

JUNE 14, 2022 – It is rare that you see and know a peak is occurring as you speak. Three months or a year down the road it is easy to look back and see when a top occurred. But, while it is going on….that is difficult. Being in the forest makes it tough to see the trees.
There are 4 steps for the housing market (any market for that matter) to go from growth to decline.
Step 1 – Acceleration in appreciation begins to slow down. This occurred 6+ months ago.
Step 2 – This is occurring now. Annual home appreciation in June will be lower than it was in May. We will look back at May-June 2022 and see the rollover in annual appreciation. Essentially, acceleration has turned negative. Better to call it deceleration.
Step 3 – This is the opposite of Step 1. The steep upward slope of accelerating price appreciation now becomes a steep downward slope of slowing price appreciation. This will occur the remainder of 2022 and into 2023.
Step 4 – The final step occurs when the accelerating slow down (think of slamming on the breaks) takes the market from price appreciation into price decline. This seems a far way off. But, I think we might be in for a surprise and see declining home prices quicker than we expect. We shall see.
As an aside, Bitcoin (slightly below $20k) and Ethereum (around $1k) are nearing major lows. The next move should take both to record highs (4x-5x moves from these levels).
Shalom and Happy Heterosexual Pride Month!
The Mann