MARCH 22, 2024 – Every once in awhile I see something not typically on your radar. This time it is Wheat futures.
In March 2022, the December 2024 futures peaked at about 1425. The same futures bottomed in early March at about 565. Assuming this is the Bear Market bottom, Wheat declined 60% in two years.
I expect Wheat prices to increase significantly over the next 12 months. I will revisit this at yearend to see how things turn out.
As an aside, no need to rush out and store up on bread:)
Shalom,
The Mann
JANUARY 2, 2023 – Happy New Year! I hope the year is good for all.
As we start 2023, the housing market is solidly in Step 4. That is when all of the cars on the rollercoaster are speeding downward together. Prices are declining and accelerating the pace of their decline.
Step 5 will be when the decline starts to slow down. e.g. annual price declines might go -8.0%, -10.0%, -11.0%, -11.5%. I expect some-to-many markets will start to see this in the 2nd Quarter.
Step 6 is when the lead cars on the rollercoaster reach bottom and start to turn up. Just the opposite of last Spring when the rollercoaster reached the top and the lead cars started downward. At this point, you have some markets still accelerating in their annual price decline and others level at their price decline level, and some where the price decline starts to head back upward towards 0%. I can see this happening in the 3rd Quarter with a slight chance it might even start towards the end of the 2nd Quarter. Readings go -9.0, -10.0, -10.0, -9.0.
The question right now is can Step 7 occur by yearend. I think there is a chance it can. In this Step the rollercoaster will be heading back upward towards say Ground Level (i.e. 0% price change in past year). There will still be many markets with negative price changes. Others will be back to near level and some will actually have positive price change readings. I would say right now no one is expecting any markets to have price appreciation this year. I think there is a chance for such to occur in the 4th Quarter in a few markets. About the same odds as last Spring when I thought full blown price declines could occur by Yearend 2022.
As always, we shall see how things play out. I will try to remember to update my forecast mid-year.
Always glad to hear your thoughts.
Shalom,
The Mann