MAY 15, 2024 – It has only been ten days since I posted an update about stocks and bonds. But, when things change, you need to note it. It looks like the recent correction ended in my target range and the final leg of this Bull Market is underway. We are dealing with TARGET 1 from my January 8th post which stated the following:
TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
===================================
In late March, the DOW peaked at about 40,300. Since then, a data correction has been made and the top is listed at just under 40,000. I haven’t seen that happen before. Regardless, the top was close enough to the Target 1 projection of 40,522. The subsequent correction was a short 5 weeks (ended April 17th) and bottomed in the 37,000 to 38,500 range at precisely 37,612.
As noted in the January 8th forecast above, the final target range is in the 43,000 to 45,500 range. It is crazy to be precise (albeit the past 5 months have been spot on), but I really am liking 44,000 to 44,300 for a final top. As this final leg plays out, a more precise target can be made.
Remember, a Bull Market climbs a wall of worries. And for 18+ months it has fed on the world predicting a recession. Regardless of where we go from here, ALL of those economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. The case is closed on them.
INTEREST RATES – As noted ten days ago, it appears the bond decline ended on April 25th. Bonds have rallied strongly since then. Albeit, the first wave of the 5-wave move has probably ended and a small decline should start immediately. A much larger rally lies ahead – which means interest rates will resume their decline at that time.
I will post updates as the stock and bond rallies unfold.
Shalom,
The Mann
P.S. If I told you that sometime in the 2030’s we may have +100% annual GDP growth, what would you say?
Category Archives: Mann Overboard
After a 2-year hiatus, the Mann Overboard blog is back. This blog will cover anything and everything that comes to mind. There will be market forecasts. Suggestions regarding interesting web sites, books, or topics I think readers should check out. My continual diatribe on the real estate appraisal industry and all of its wrongs. My support for a new real property valuation profession, adopting Mortgage Lending Value in America, creating Real Property Risk Ratings in America, and introducing readers to the concept of Socionomics. Other topics will surely arise.
Feedback will be limited to approved site visitors. This is not to limit disagreement – different ideas are needed for us to advance any concept we discuss. I just want to keep the content professional. Replies whining about old subjects like AMCs and what banks have done to the industry and such don’t get us anywhere. And simpl
RECESSION PREDICTORS THAT HAVE FAILED
UPDATE MAY 12, 2024 – Per below, I started this long list last December. With 1st Quarter GDP growth being +1.6%, we have now had 7 straight quarters of very strong economic expansion. All of the indicators and the one I am about to add have been way off base. As has been most economists.
The McKelvey Rule has (should say HAD) a PERFECT record of predicting recessions going back to 1970! That includes 7 recessions. As of October 2023, it says we are now in the 8th recession. The rule says that when the real-time 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate moves 0.3% above the lowest monthly reading in the past 12 months we are in a recession. It doesn’t actually forecast a recession. It says we are already in a recession. With 4th Quarter 2023 GDP growth at + 3.3% and 1st Quarter 2024 GDP growth at +1.6%, this indicator is now officially 7 of 8. Instead of admitting the rule is wrong this time, I have seen economists argue that a recession may have actually started last October. Never let facts get in the way of your opinion:)
UPDATE JANUARY 11, 2024 – The latest Bloomberg survey of economists shows 50% of them expect a recession this year. Based on the stock market being at all-time highs, it is saying there is zero chance of a recession in the next 6 months. I won’t use 0% in my forecasts. But, as part of my goal to provide precise measurable forecasts, I will say there is a 1% chance of a recession (Two consecutive negative GDP quarters) occurring in the first half of 2024. As the odds of the 2nd Quarter being negative are low, I place a chance of a recession starting by the end of the 3rd Quarter (would require negative GDP in 2nd and 3rd Quarters) at 5%. I just as well place a percentage on a recession occurring in 2024 as a whole. My estimate is that is only about 10% at this time. There is no doubt GDP growth in 2024 will be lower than 2023. But, that does not mean we will have a recession. We have had very strong economic growth for 6 quarters since the early 2022 recession ended. I will update these percentages as new information warrants such.
DECEMBER 19, 2023 – With so many recession indicators being wrong over the past 2 years, I thought it would be good to compile a list. Although they have failed, this doesn’t mean that in 20 years we won’t look back and say this indicator has predicted 4 of the last 5 recessions. But, for now, these indicators have simply been wrong. I will continue to update this list as I encounter such (erroneous) indicators. Many of these I have never followed or heard of. But, as I am made aware of them predicting a recession that hasn’t, and isn’t, going to occur, I will add them to this list.
1. The (Mis)Leading Economic Indicator turned negative in early 2022 and been consistently forecasting a recession for over 18+ months.
2. M-2 Money Supply is the most negative it has been since The Great Depression.
3. Inverted Yield Curve – The yield curve turned negative in July 2022. It forecasts a recession 11-13 months from that event – which was June to August 2023. This indicator had been a perfect 8-for-8 since WWII. Make that 8 out of 9 now.
4. Empire State Manufacturing Backlogs – The last two readings have been -23.2% and -24%. The only two times this has occurred was in 2001 and The Great Recession. It is doubtful the current decline will coincide with a recession.
5. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has been below 75 for 29 consecutive months. That has surpassed the prior record from February 2008 to May 2010.
6. The National Association of Credit Management’s (NACM) Credit Manager’s Index (CMI) registered 54.6 and 54.2 in the 3rd and 4th Quarters of 2023, respectively. It did not fall below 55 during the 2010’s expansion and the last time it fell below 55 for two consecutive quarters was in 2008 (this excludes the spike low in the pandemic).
7. The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has dropped to 44.8. Previous drops below 45 signaled a recession in 2001’s first quarter and 2008’s first quarter. HOWEVER, Architects have a lead time of 9-12 months on commercial building activity. Thus, this indicator might be signaling a recession at the very end of 2024 and into 2025 – which I have mentioned in prior posts as a possibility. Especially, since that occurs after the Presidential Election. So, I might move this indicator from this list to the small list of indicators that are still accurate in predicting recessions. But, I wanted to place it here in the interim so you could be aware of what it is saying.
8. Wholesale Sales excluding Autos and Oil turned negative (-2.8% YOY) in 2023. Besides the Pandemic, this indicator coincided with recessions in 2001 and 2007-2009. It also was negative in 2015-2016, which was termed an industrial recession.
9. Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for C&I Loans bottomed at around -60% at the end of the recessions in 2001 and 2007-2009. It bottomed at -54.5% in the 2nd Quarter of 2023 (one year after the recession I say occurred in the first half of 2022). At any rate, no recession occurred in 2023 and one is highly unlikely in 2024. The index has rebounded to -23.7% in the First Quarter of 2024. Still weak. But, improving.
The McKelvey Rule has (should say HAD) a PERFECT record of predicting recessions going back to 1970! That includes 7 recessions. As of October 2023, it says we are now in the 8th recession. The rule says that when the real-time 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate moves 0.3% above the lowest monthly reading in the past 12 months we are in a recession. It doesn’t actually forecast a recession. It says we are already in a recession. With 4th Quarter 2023 GDP growth at + 3.3% and 1st Quarter 2024 GDP growth at +1.6%, this indicator is now officially 7 of 8. Instead of admitting the rule is wrong this time, I have seen economists argue that a recession may have actually started last October. Never let facts get in the way of your opinion:)
UPDATE JANUARY 11, 2024 – The latest Bloomberg survey of economists shows 50% of them expect a recession this year. Based on the stock market being at all-time highs, it is saying there is zero chance of a recession in the next 6 months. I won’t use 0% in my forecasts. But, as part of my goal to provide precise measurable forecasts, I will say there is a 1% chance of a recession (Two consecutive negative GDP quarters) occurring in the first half of 2024. As the odds of the 2nd Quarter being negative are low, I place a chance of a recession starting by the end of the 3rd Quarter (would require negative GDP in 2nd and 3rd Quarters) at 5%. I just as well place a percentage on a recession occurring in 2024 as a whole. My estimate is that is only about 10% at this time. There is no doubt GDP growth in 2024 will be lower than 2023. But, that does not mean we will have a recession. We have had very strong economic growth for 6 quarters since the early 2022 recession ended. I will update these percentages as new information warrants such.
DECEMBER 19, 2023 – With so many recession indicators being wrong over the past 2 years, I thought it would be good to compile a list. Although they have failed, this doesn’t mean that in 20 years we won’t look back and say this indicator has predicted 4 of the last 5 recessions. But, for now, these indicators have simply been wrong. I will continue to update this list as I encounter such (erroneous) indicators. Many of these I have never followed or heard of. But, as I am made aware of them predicting a recession that hasn’t, and isn’t, going to occur, I will add them to this list.
1. The (Mis)Leading Economic Indicator turned negative in early 2022 and been consistently forecasting a recession for over 18+ months.
2. M-2 Money Supply is the most negative it has been since The Great Depression.
3. Inverted Yield Curve – The yield curve turned negative in July 2022. It forecasts a recession 11-13 months from that event – which was June to August 2023. This indicator had been a perfect 8-for-8 since WWII. Make that 8 out of 9 now.
4. Empire State Manufacturing Backlogs – The last two readings have been -23.2% and -24%. The only two times this has occurred was in 2001 and The Great Recession. It is doubtful the current decline will coincide with a recession.
5. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has been below 75 for 29 consecutive months. That has surpassed the prior record from February 2008 to May 2010.
6. The National Association of Credit Management’s (NACM) Credit Manager’s Index (CMI) registered 54.6 and 54.2 in the 3rd and 4th Quarters of 2023, respectively. It did not fall below 55 during the 2010’s expansion and the last time it fell below 55 for two consecutive quarters was in 2008 (this excludes the spike low in the pandemic).
7. The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has dropped to 44.8. Previous drops below 45 signaled a recession in 2001’s first quarter and 2008’s first quarter. HOWEVER, Architects have a lead time of 9-12 months on commercial building activity. Thus, this indicator might be signaling a recession at the very end of 2024 and into 2025 – which I have mentioned in prior posts as a possibility. Especially, since that occurs after the Presidential Election. So, I might move this indicator from this list to the small list of indicators that are still accurate in predicting recessions. But, I wanted to place it here in the interim so you could be aware of what it is saying.
8. Wholesale Sales excluding Autos and Oil turned negative (-2.8% YOY) in 2023. Besides the Pandemic, this indicator coincided with recessions in 2001 and 2007-2009. It also was negative in 2015-2016, which was termed an industrial recession.
9. Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for C&I Loans bottomed at around -60% at the end of the recessions in 2001 and 2007-2009. It bottomed at -54.5% in the 2nd Quarter of 2023 (one year after the recession I say occurred in the first half of 2022). At any rate, no recession occurred in 2023 and one is highly unlikely in 2024. The index has rebounded to -23.7% in the First Quarter of 2024. Still weak. But, improving.
STOCK MARKET AND INTEREST RATES
MAY 5, 2024 – It’s been awhile since I posted about stocks and bonds. It takes time for the waves to play out. Back on January 8th I posted the following:
There are two target options so I will simply label them 1 and 2. They are both bullish so I am not saying the market may go up, but it may go down:) Just saying that there are a few ways it can play out statistically. So here goes the impossible….
TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
===================================
In late March, the DOW peaked at about 40,300. Since then, a data correction has been made and the top is listed at just under 40,000. I haven’t seen that happen before. Regardless, the top was close enough to the Target 1 projection of 40,522. The subsequent correction has been underway for 5 weeks and we are right in the 37,000 to 38,500 range.
As I have noted in the past, as the waves unfold I can update the targets. I would say the low end of the range needs to be lowered to 36,000. I do not think the low for this correction is in place, yet.
INTEREST RATES – There is a good chance the bond decline finally ended on April 25th. This was a 4-month decline. From here bonds should rally at least through the Summer and interest rates should decline at least 100bp.
I will post a stock update when I believe this correction has ended.
Shalom,
The Mann
There are two target options so I will simply label them 1 and 2. They are both bullish so I am not saying the market may go up, but it may go down:) Just saying that there are a few ways it can play out statistically. So here goes the impossible….
TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
===================================
In late March, the DOW peaked at about 40,300. Since then, a data correction has been made and the top is listed at just under 40,000. I haven’t seen that happen before. Regardless, the top was close enough to the Target 1 projection of 40,522. The subsequent correction has been underway for 5 weeks and we are right in the 37,000 to 38,500 range.
As I have noted in the past, as the waves unfold I can update the targets. I would say the low end of the range needs to be lowered to 36,000. I do not think the low for this correction is in place, yet.
INTEREST RATES – There is a good chance the bond decline finally ended on April 25th. This was a 4-month decline. From here bonds should rally at least through the Summer and interest rates should decline at least 100bp.
I will post a stock update when I believe this correction has ended.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
APRIL 11, 2024 – The March report came in at 3.5%, above my forecast of 3.0%-3.2% and the consensus estimate of 3.4%. No doubt about it, this was a strong inflation reading.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 7.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.0%. These figures are significantly above the annualized rate (3.5%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or higher for awhile.
The data is predicting a reading between 3.2% and 3.6% next month. I think the reading will be between 3.4% and 3.6%.
The Fed’s December statement that they expect to lower interest rates 3 times in 2024 looks to be inaccurate. The market is expecting one reduction – maybe in June. As I always say, we shall see.
Shalom,
The Mann
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 7.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.0%. These figures are significantly above the annualized rate (3.5%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or higher for awhile.
The data is predicting a reading between 3.2% and 3.6% next month. I think the reading will be between 3.4% and 3.6%.
The Fed’s December statement that they expect to lower interest rates 3 times in 2024 looks to be inaccurate. The market is expecting one reduction – maybe in June. As I always say, we shall see.
Shalom,
The Mann
BULLISH ON WHEAT
MARCH 22, 2024 – Every once in awhile I see something not typically on your radar. This time it is Wheat futures.
In March 2022, the December 2024 futures peaked at about 1425. The same futures bottomed in early March at about 565. Assuming this is the Bear Market bottom, Wheat declined 60% in two years.
I expect Wheat prices to increase significantly over the next 12 months. I will revisit this at yearend to see how things turn out.
As an aside, no need to rush out and store up on bread:)
Shalom,
The Mann
In March 2022, the December 2024 futures peaked at about 1425. The same futures bottomed in early March at about 565. Assuming this is the Bear Market bottom, Wheat declined 60% in two years.
I expect Wheat prices to increase significantly over the next 12 months. I will revisit this at yearend to see how things turn out.
As an aside, no need to rush out and store up on bread:)
Shalom,
The Mann
TO REITERATE – MORTGAGE RATES ARE NOT AN ISSUE
MARCH 22, 2024 – The following is from an article by Gabriella Cruz-Martinez of Yahoo Finance on March 21st:
“Sales of previously occupied US homes gained momentum in February as buyers accepted the new normal of higher mortgage rates.
Existing home sales surged 9.5% in February from the month before to an annualized rate of 4.38 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Thursday. That was almost 6% higher than a year earlier and marked the largest monthly increase in a year.
Sales picked up last month, even as mortgage rates flirted with 7%.”
My June 15, 2023 post titled “CAN PEOPLE AFFORD 7% MORTGAGE RATES?” appears to have been accurate and played out as I predicted. I will simply show a few quotes here. You can revisit the post if you want to read it in its entirety.
A side note, the S&P HomeBuilders Index is at all-time highs. It is up almost 75% since the October low. Even with the supply of new homes soaring, the market has no worries of a housing bust occurring this year.
Shalom,
The Mann
Excerpts from my June 15, 2023 post:
JUNE 15, 2023 – YES! The simple answer is, of course!
I saw a survey this week where people said they needed mortgage rates to drop to about 4% for them to afford a new house. As my friend The Red-Shoe Economist, KC Conway, would say ‘I call BBQ-Sauce!’
People can afford a 7% mortgage rate. They can afford a 10% mortgage rate! Us old-timers remember when a rate below 10% was a bargain.
By this time next year when the world realizes the day of artificially low interest rates is history and will not return, they will simply adjust to living with 7%-8%+ mortgage rates and supply and demand analyses will work the same as they did before. People adjust. They always have. It’s just easier to complain before facing reality and adjusting the way they do things. Human nature.
“Sales of previously occupied US homes gained momentum in February as buyers accepted the new normal of higher mortgage rates.
Existing home sales surged 9.5% in February from the month before to an annualized rate of 4.38 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Thursday. That was almost 6% higher than a year earlier and marked the largest monthly increase in a year.
Sales picked up last month, even as mortgage rates flirted with 7%.”
My June 15, 2023 post titled “CAN PEOPLE AFFORD 7% MORTGAGE RATES?” appears to have been accurate and played out as I predicted. I will simply show a few quotes here. You can revisit the post if you want to read it in its entirety.
A side note, the S&P HomeBuilders Index is at all-time highs. It is up almost 75% since the October low. Even with the supply of new homes soaring, the market has no worries of a housing bust occurring this year.
Shalom,
The Mann
Excerpts from my June 15, 2023 post:
JUNE 15, 2023 – YES! The simple answer is, of course!
I saw a survey this week where people said they needed mortgage rates to drop to about 4% for them to afford a new house. As my friend The Red-Shoe Economist, KC Conway, would say ‘I call BBQ-Sauce!’
People can afford a 7% mortgage rate. They can afford a 10% mortgage rate! Us old-timers remember when a rate below 10% was a bargain.
By this time next year when the world realizes the day of artificially low interest rates is history and will not return, they will simply adjust to living with 7%-8%+ mortgage rates and supply and demand analyses will work the same as they did before. People adjust. They always have. It’s just easier to complain before facing reality and adjusting the way they do things. Human nature.
INFLATION UPDATE
MARCH 13, 2024 – The February report came in at 3.2%, just above my forecast of 3.0%-3.1% and the consensus estimate of 3.1%.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.2%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (3.2%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area for awhile.
The data is predicting a reading between 3.0% and 3.2% next month. I think this will be on target.
Shalom,
The Mann
R.I.P. (MIS)LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR
FEBRUARY 21, 2024 – On Tuesday, The Conference Board said its Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is no longer signaling recession. The indicator has been calling for a recession for 23-straight months. The record is 24 months back in The Great Recession.
I brought this to your attention last September. This is one of many indicators that have been wrong about a recession.
I have mentioned a few times why this was going to occur. I am going to write a detailed post explaining the situation one of these days. It will take some work, so I will need to wait a bit before sitting down to do such.
I have adopted the copyrighted term Rotating Reversion to the Mean (RRM) for what has occurred over the past 18 months. I look forward to introducing it to you soon.
In the interim, you can bury the LEI for now. It will be right again one day. It just had no chance this time around.
Shalom,
The Mann
I brought this to your attention last September. This is one of many indicators that have been wrong about a recession.
I have mentioned a few times why this was going to occur. I am going to write a detailed post explaining the situation one of these days. It will take some work, so I will need to wait a bit before sitting down to do such.
I have adopted the copyrighted term Rotating Reversion to the Mean (RRM) for what has occurred over the past 18 months. I look forward to introducing it to you soon.
In the interim, you can bury the LEI for now. It will be right again one day. It just had no chance this time around.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION AND ECONOMY UPDATES
FEBRUARY 12, 2024 – The January report came in at 3.1%, just below my forecast of 3.2%-3.3%. and above the consensus estimate of 2.9%.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.8%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.7% next month. Like last month, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.0%-3.1% for next month’s figure.
ECONOMY – We have had 6 straight quarters of above 2% GDP growth since the recession in the first half of 2022 ended. The last two quarters have been above 3% (!) and some forecasts expect another 3%+ figure for the First Quarter of 2024. With annual population growth around 0.7%, any GDP growth above that amount is exceptional. The chance of a recession occurring this year remains slim to nil. It certainly won’t occur in the first half of this year.
STOCKS – The Dow 30 continues its march towards 40,000. I never did see anyone else predict 40,000 this year. I suspect there are a few others like me out there somewhere. As they saay, never count your chickens before they hatch. 38k+ is not 40k. But, the stock market is saying the economy this Summer should be extremely strong.
The recession mongers couldn’t have been more wrong for the past 20 months. They will continue to be wrong into the foreseeable future.
Shalom,
The Mann
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.8%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.1%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.7% next month. Like last month, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.0%-3.1% for next month’s figure.
ECONOMY – We have had 6 straight quarters of above 2% GDP growth since the recession in the first half of 2022 ended. The last two quarters have been above 3% (!) and some forecasts expect another 3%+ figure for the First Quarter of 2024. With annual population growth around 0.7%, any GDP growth above that amount is exceptional. The chance of a recession occurring this year remains slim to nil. It certainly won’t occur in the first half of this year.
STOCKS – The Dow 30 continues its march towards 40,000. I never did see anyone else predict 40,000 this year. I suspect there are a few others like me out there somewhere. As they saay, never count your chickens before they hatch. 38k+ is not 40k. But, the stock market is saying the economy this Summer should be extremely strong.
The recession mongers couldn’t have been more wrong for the past 20 months. They will continue to be wrong into the foreseeable future.
Shalom,
The Mann
VARIOUS FORECASTS FOR 2024
JANUARY 13, 2024 – No one took me up on my offer to ask me to forecast something…anything. However, I have found a web site that holds forecasting contests on an ongoing basis. The main contest for this year has 36 questions. I won’t bore you with all of them. But, I will list my initial forecasts for a few questions you might find pertinent. I will likely change my %’s weekly or monthly. Here goes….The percentage after the question is my forecast.
Will the S&P 500 Index go up over 2024? 90%
Will annual US Core Inflation be above 3% in December 2024? 32%
Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? 4%
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? 54%…this one is a tossup. A key word is ABOVE 4%. If it included 4%, I would be much higher on my %.
There are several questions Re Trump and the Election and other political issues. I will just stick with economic questions here.
We shall see how I do. It is nice to finally be measured on how accurate my forecasts will be. I will let you know the results when the contest is over – I believe that will be early next year.
Shalom,
The Mann
Will the S&P 500 Index go up over 2024? 90%
Will annual US Core Inflation be above 3% in December 2024? 32%
Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? 4%
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? 54%…this one is a tossup. A key word is ABOVE 4%. If it included 4%, I would be much higher on my %.
There are several questions Re Trump and the Election and other political issues. I will just stick with economic questions here.
We shall see how I do. It is nice to finally be measured on how accurate my forecasts will be. I will let you know the results when the contest is over – I believe that will be early next year.
Shalom,
The Mann