FEBRUARY 21, 2024 – On Tuesday, The Conference Board said its Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is no longer signaling recession. The indicator has been calling for a recession for 23-straight months. The record is 24 months back in The Great Recession.
I brought this to your attention last September. This is one of many indicators that have been wrong about a recession.
I have mentioned a few times why this was going to occur. I am going to write a detailed post explaining the situation one of these days. It will take some work, so I will need to wait a bit before sitting down to do such.
I have adopted the copyrighted term Rotating Reversion to the Mean (RRM) for what has occurred over the past 18 months. I look forward to introducing it to you soon.
In the interim, you can bury the LEI for now. It will be right again one day. It just had no chance this time around.
Shalom,
The Mann