JANUARY 13, 2024 – No one took me up on my offer to ask me to forecast something…anything. However, I have found a web site that holds forecasting contests on an ongoing basis. The main contest for this year has 36 questions. I won’t bore you with all of them. But, I will list my initial forecasts for a few questions you might find pertinent. I will likely change my %’s weekly or monthly. Here goes….The percentage after the question is my forecast.
Will the S&P 500 Index go up over 2024? 90%
Will annual US Core Inflation be above 3% in December 2024? 32%
Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? 4%
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? 54%…this one is a tossup. A key word is ABOVE 4%. If it included 4%, I would be much higher on my %.
There are several questions Re Trump and the Election and other political issues. I will just stick with economic questions here.
We shall see how I do. It is nice to finally be measured on how accurate my forecasts will be. I will let you know the results when the contest is over – I believe that will be early next year.
The Mann