JANUARY 12, 2024 – The December report came in at 3.4%, below my forecast of 3.6%. and above the consensus estimate of 3.2%. Annual inflation of 3.4% was well below the double-digits many people were predicting at the beginning of the year and about double what I had forecast it would be.
The 3-month annualized inflation rate is -1.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.1%. These figures are lower than the annualized rate (3.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should drift lower.
The data is predicting a reading between 2.4% and 2.7% next month. However, I think this will be way off. Inflation is historically high in January and February. I am going to forecast 3.2%-3.3% for next month’s figure.
Shalom,
The Mann