JANUARY 11, 2025 – Regarding interest rates, the 30-year US Treasury Bond yield should easily surpass 5% (specifically, 5.18%) this year. I said over the past few months that the number of Fed Fund Rate cuts will be minimal. The market has said such and Powell is doing as the market instructs.
ECONOMY – I see that my November 8th post said no more economy updates. It provided the simple way to predict the economy 6 months into the future. With the DOW peaking in December, the economy has ZERO chance of being in a recession during the first half of this year. GDP forecasts are calling for continued growth over 2% during the first two quarters. For a recession to occur, we will need BOTH the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP readings to be negative. The only way I see that happening is for a worldwide shutdown to occur like happened 5 years (!!! time flies eh!!!) ago. Otherwise, virtually no chance of a recession in 2025. We will see what the DOW says come June.
BITCOIN – My July 3rd post said the next up move would take Bitcoin over $100,000. Bitcoin closed at $57k that day. It peaked at $108k. That was a nice ride for us crypto investors. On November 8th, I said Bitcoin would hit $100k-$190k in 2025. We already got the lower end taken care of. I think $130-$150k will be the low end of this next up wave.
I said the following in my August 2nd post:
GOLD & SILVER – The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely.
Gold peaked over $2700 (I sold my high school ring when it was at that level…ironically when my parents bought it gold was at an all-time high over $800/ounce!) and silver over $35. I am waiting for the current corrections to finish before I take long positions again.
That’s all for 2025 forecasts. Best of luck to everyone.
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: gold
STOCK MARKET UPDATE
UPDATE AUGUST 12, 2024 – One of the reasons I have followed the Elliott Wave Theory for 44 years is it has predetermined points where you need to realize a market isn’t going where initially thought and you need to reverse course. Yesterday, the major market indices (except the Russell 2000) crossed lines that said the recent correction was actually part of the ongoing bull market and not the start of a new bear market. This suggests the economy will be strong thru the 1st Quarter of 2025 at a minimum. Right now, I am seeing +2.0%-2.9% estimated for 3rd Quarter GDP. I suspect the 4th Quarter will be equally strong. Too early to see where 1st Quarter 2025 will be. Albeit, I think the market says there will be a bit of a hiccup then.
Gold is at new all-time highs. Silver is struggling, but should go up into the $30’s per ounce. I did take positions in Copper and Natural Gas as they are at lows that over the past 20 years have signal major bottoms. Cryptos have acted well since the downturn 10 days ago. CPI came in at +2.9% today. I will post about that tomorrow. Hope everyone has had a good Summer. – The Mann
AUGUST 2, 2024 – Wow, what a week this was. As everyone should know, I love Bear Markets way more than Bull Markets. It killed me to be all out bullish for the past 2 years. But, I rode the upturn to its fullest I think and sold all my stocks a week ago on Friday July 26th when the Dow was up about 700 points. And this week as 10-Year Treasury Notes and further out went below 4%, I locked in a 4.8% annuity for 3 years. Easier to sleep this weekend and beyond. Albeit, I did leave some play money to play the downside:) Bear markets are quicker and harsher than bull markets. Easy money to be made if the bear market is truly underway. On to some numbers and forecasts. This is going to be VERY LONG as I am going to layout a lot of specific targets for numerous markets. AGAIN NONE OF THIS INVESTMENT ADVICE. Just my hobby of forecasting the future.
One thing that annoys me most about most analysts are they make forecasts and don’t provide a point (aka as a stop-loss) where they say their forecast is wrong and has to be reconsidered. That leaves their followers not knowing what to do when the person they are following has missed a call. I never care when the market crosses a stop-loss point. Yes, it means my analysis was wrong and, if I traded it, I took a loss. But, if you take trades where your expected profit/loss ratio is at least 3-4/1, then the small losses are nothing compared to the large profits.
DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS – The DOW broke below the 39,411 level today that I mentioned would indicate the peak on July 18th was the Bull Market top. The only problem was this was a closing target, not an intraday figure. The DOW closed at 39,737. Also, the wave theory I follow does not clearly show a change in trend. With all other stock indices clearly in a Bear Market, I am going to assume the DOW is, too. If it gets back to 40,061-40,353, I will probably go short with a stop-loss around 41,000. If it is in a Bear Market, it should not see 41,000 again.
NASDAQ – The Bull Market top occurred at 20,691 on July 10. As I predicted a few weeks ago, the DOW has been much stronger than the NASDAQ. There have been several days recently where the DOW was up a few hundred points and the NASDAQ was down a few hundred. First support is around 17,000-17,500. It is very early, but I am thinking the Bear Market might bottom between 10,500 and 13,500. A 35%-49% decline would be moderate for the NASDAQ. In the past, major declines have been over 80%. Right now, it will take a move to a new high to end the Bear Market case. That isn’t ideal. But, sometimes that is all you have. Right now is not an ideal entry point to short the NASDAQ 100 or S&P 500. Although, I think some more carnage lies ahead next week, a rally after that back to anywhere around 19,000 on the NASDAQ 100 would give me a great place to short. I just am not sure it will ever get back to that level. Today’s close was 18,441. A Bear Market doesn’t like to give short-sellers an easy time either:)
RUSSELL 2000 – The Bull Market top actually occurred back in November 2021 at 2,459. The Bear Market rally topped at 2,300 on July 31. Today’s close was 2,109. If I can get a move back to about 2,172 to close a gap on the chart that occurred today, I will go short with a 2,300 stop-loss. My analysis suggests the high end of the Bear Market bottom range is 1,475 with 965 being the bottom end. Two separate wave relationships point to 965. So, I give that most weight. Thus, a short trade initiated at 2,172 would have an expected profit of 697-1,207 points with a stop-loss being at 128 points. That is a 5.5-9.4/1 profit/loss ratio. Those are the kind of trades I like:)
TREASURY BONDS – The rally I have called for continues and accelerated today. The US 30-Year Treasury Bond price closed at just over 125. Around a 4.1% yield. The main target is around 131 or about a 3.5% yield. The high-end price target is about 144 or about a 3.0% yield. I guess if I had to pick a stop-loss point it would be about 120.5.
ECONOMY – I have reiterated many times that economists waste their time trying to forecast the economy when the stock market tells us what is happening 6 months into the future. The market has correctly forecast the strong economy for the past 2 years and already said it will be strong through the end of the year. However, if the market is in a Bear Market, then it is telling us that next January and February will show us an economy in trouble. As I mentioned almost a year ago, a way early indicator was pointing towards a 2025 recession. The market is now pointing that way, too. And the market doesn’t get this wrong. My expectation is that the economists and pundits that have been dead wrong for two years about a recession occurring will start to say no chance of a recession in 2025 because the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates in September and interest rates fall significantly as I have forecast. Also, Trueflation is now down below 1.4%. The pundits will be overwhelming you with how great things are as inflation is tamed and mortgage rates are down, blah blah blah. I do hope they will be bullish right as the recession gets underway. As a reminder, when the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year Bonds) gets to +100bp we will be in a recession. It is down to about -20bp. The lowest I have seen in a year or two. We have lots of lead time to get from -20bp to +100bp. Could that lead time be 6-9 months as the market has indicated? Coincidence? 🙂
UNEMPLOYMENT – On July 1st, I posted it will be 4.4%-4.5% by year end. It went up to 4.3% in today’s report. The whole world now knows about the Sahm Rule (I will let you look it up to see what it is.). Supposedly, it was triggered today. I thought it already had been. I think there is a similar rule with a different name measured in a slightly different way. Everyone talks about its 100% perfect record predicting recessions since 1970 or such. What everyone doesn’t know apparently is that the rule has only a 50% accuracy rate when unemployment rates get adjusted after the initial announcement. A flip of the coin is definitely more accurate than economists and weather forecasters! But, it doesn’t help me in my analysis.
GOLD & SILVER – I am getting tired. If you are still reading, I am sure you are, too:) The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely. I will probably hop on this trade Monday morning.
LASTLY – One last thing came to mind. Over a year ago when the SVB debacle occurred, I posted about buying when no one else wanted to. Everyone predicted 400+ banks to close up and the housing market to crash. Here is what those experts cost you if you didn’t invest in those sectors. Granted no one would be able to buy at the exact low and high. But, the bull moves were as follows – The S&P Regional Index (KRE) bottomed at 34.52 and the recent top was 59.59. A 72% move. Even if you just caught the middle part of the move for a 50% profit remember all of those pundits that told you banks were in trouble. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was around 64 at the time of the SVB event. But, the bull move had started a year earlier at 51. The recent top was an ALL-TIME HIGH at 121.23. Over the past 15 months it went up a measly 89%. If you threw in the towel today, you would have made over 70%. Remember to thank all of those people that have been predicting a housing market crash. And seriously folks, look up on YouTube or wherever the videos from around the SVB event forward and find those analysts that were forecasting armageddon – and NEVER EVER listen to them again!!!
I might be back here sooner than later. I live for bear markets. I get very active when they are occurring. This bear doesn’t hibernate:)
Shalom,
The Mann
MID-YEAR UPDATE
JULY 3, 2024 – I forgot two items in post below. The next wave up should take gold to $2500-$2600 ounce and the next wave up should take Bitcoin well above $100,000. And most importantly, Happy 248th Birthday to the USA!
JULY 1, 2024 – As you get older, the years fly by quicker and quicker:) Here’s an update on a few items.
STOCK MARKET – The Dow has now put in two lows in the 37,500-39,000 that I had forecast for being a bottom. I think it will put in a third low around 38,500 before the Summer is over. Then we should see a strong rally to the final Bull Market top of 43,000+.
BONDS – Treasury Bonds are at a critical junction. I don’t like those because what it says is we may go up or we may go down. Anyone can say that lol. I am sticking with the bullish case and expect a turn up at any moment literally with interest rates declining for several months. Even if the weakness occurs, it just delays the up move in prices and thus downturn in interest rates.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – Simply put, I expect it to be 4.4%-4.5% by yearend.
RECESSION – Today is the 2nd anniversary of a very strong economic expansion. As I noted all along, it was missed by the vast majority of economists and pundits. Also remember, until the 2030’s when we see +100% annual GDP, we will not see annual rates of 3%+ anymore. Annual growth over 1% is good and over 2% is exceptional and cannot be sustained for long. As with interest rates, people need to adjust to the new normal. Is a recession finally the horizon. Yes, finally! I mentioned last year that a longer-term indicator was suggesting a recession might occur in 2025. First years of a presidential cycle are usually the weakest. Also, if the stock market does top out this Fall and turns down significantly, then it will be signally for a recession at the end of Spring into the Summer of 2025. As I mentioned awhile back, when the economists and pundits give up on a recession, then we know one is right around the corner:) Numerous articles like the following have come out this year:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/yield-curve-disinversion-is-recession-signal-watch-2024-06-04/
Although some argue this indicator has not been wrong since World War II, it was wrong in 1966. What is significant about that? That was the year the Dow first broke 1,000 and was at all-time highs. Similar to today.
In the above article and others, people start grasping at straws and say well maybe it isn’t wrong, yet. In the past recessions have started 13-22 months or whatever after the inversion occurs (fyi it was July 2022 when it occurred this time around). We are now passing 24 months and with a near zero chance of a recession occurring this year, we will be at 30+ months. Time to just admit this, and another dozen indicators I have mentioned in past blogs, indicator is simply wrong. Come on, admit it:)
Enjoy your Summer and an interesting Fall. Only 126 days til the 2024 Presidential Election. But, sadly, only 1,587 days til the 2028 Presidential Election and we know the campaigning begins after the 2024 election is settled (which no longer is the day or night of the election itself).
Shalom,
The Mann
THE MARKET ENTERS THE PREDICTED RANGE
UPDATE MARCH 27 (EVENING) – The DOW peaked at 22,595 on Thursday. That is within 100 points of my target. I’ll be surprised if my third forecast target in a row is this accurate. But, if so, I’ll take it.
I will revisit price targets for the upcoming low next week.
The way the waves are looking the following should occur: The US Dollar will rally to new highs short-term, Gold will fall below $1050-$1250 longer term, Silver will decline below $8 longer term. and stocks will fall 30% from current levels short-term. How all of that happens I have no idea. But, that is what I see happening. I never ask why or how.
The $2+ Trillion stimulus bill was signed today. And the DOW was down 915 points. The markets already have priced in all of the stimulus that will be thrown at the country ($6+ Trillion). They are looking at where we will be this Summer or Fall and they aren’t happy with what they see. I am guessing they are pricing in the virus coming back in the Fall and Winter.
Regarding Oil, I did get a reply from the experts at Elliott Wave International. My thoughts that the combination 120-year bull and bear market might well be coming to an end are on target. Obviously, it is rare to have such an opportunity occur in a our lifetime. There is an issue regarding the length of this bear market (timewise). I need to analyze the 120-year move in a bit more detail to see what I can figure out. I will keep you posted.
I have a gripe about healthcare providers complaining about going to work….about being on the front lines and subject to getting the virus. Seriously? Did you think you would take care of sick people and not encounter a contagion? Geez, too much complaining about having to work nowadays. Just do the job you chose as a career. Be proud that you are helping people. You have a chance to help others and change the course of history. Stop complaining.
Oh, I do hope GM cans their CEO. Trying to make a killing off of this crisis is obscene. Like him or not, Trump is great at not letting anyone screw over our country. I am glad he invoked the Protection act and I do hope GM doesn’t get a dime for the respirators they will make. To think we bailed them out last time around….and this is the thanks we get. I will never buy a GM product.
Til Monday evening…stay safe.
The Mann
UPDATE MARCH 25 (EVENING) – The DOW rallied to 22,020 today. It has satisfied getting to the range of a top for this counter trend rally. It then fell almost a 1,000 points in the final 5 minutes due to Bernie Sanders threatening to hold up the bailout legislation. It cannot be ruled out that the DOW could rally back above 22,020. But, once a target range is satisfied, I start concentrating on the next wave – which is down to 13,900 to 15,400.
For trivia, this was the best 2-day rally since the 1987 crash. And I think it was the first consecutive up days in a month.
Gold backed off its rally quickly. Oil is starting to get its legs back.
Hopefully, Friday evening the waves will be telling us more.
Regarding real estate, early info is saying that buyers are asking for a 5%+ reduction in price on existing contracts. That isn’t all buyers. And that isn’t much at all. Starter homes continue to sell well. National Tenant Lease properties are in demand as a flight to safety. Since these are really corporate bonds, and not real estate, this makes a bit of sense. Of course, the question is do these buyers know what kind of downgrade the corporate bond rating will get for the tenant in the property they are looking at? Or are these unsophisticated buyers just looking for anywhere to put their money?
Please share anything you are hearing regarding real estate prices, cap rates, closings falling thru, et al. Til Friday evening…
The Mann
UPDATE MARCH 24 (EVENING) – I was going to post this regardless of today’s outcome. But, worth noting today was the largest up day since the depths of 1933.
Most, if not all, analysts never state what could occur that would show their forecast to be wrong. Flat out, if the DOW rallies above 24,200 my interpretation of the wave theory will be wrong. Technically, it would just mean the waves were showing something else was happening. But, to me, I say I am wrong.
I did some analyzing today and thought this rally would terminate around 22,500. Bob Prechter’s firm put out their analysis this evening and said about 21,200-22,100 should be the top of the range. The main point is this rally absolutely cannot go above the late February low around 24,200.
Some additional analysis suggests that 15,300-15,400 is really looking good for the final bottom (i.e. for this first ‘A’ wave of a Bear Market….wherever this low occurs, it should be broken down the road after a significant rally occurs). But, a lower target of 13,900 showed up so I would have to update the ‘final’ bottom range to be 13,900-15,400.
So far, the 27,100 top forecast for Wave 2 of the decline was almost exactly on target. And the 18,200-18,400 range for a possible appears to be for Wave 3 of this decline. Both have been right on the money. I suppose my luck will run out soon:) Albeit, I usually do excellent in a major downturn, so we shall see.
22,500 for the top of Wave 4 and 13,900-15,400 for the bottom of Wave 5 of ‘a’ are up next.
I need to confirm with Mr. Prechter something I am observing regarding the Oil market. It is significant, so I hope to get his thoughts on the matter. Sam Zell said he bought some energy stocks. If what I see occurring in the Oil market, per the wave theory, is accurate, then we might have an opportunity like that of the stock market in April 1933. Will keep you posted on this one.
Oh, the $200 Gold rally in two days is due to people suddenly realizing they can’t buy the physical product anywhere. I use KITCO and they are all but sold out. However, the wave theory allows for this rally to still be part of the larger decline below $1056. No change of thought on that forecast because of these two days.
Stay at home. Be safe. Enjoy time with your family.
The Mann
MARCH 23 (EVENING) – A fairly calm day in comparison to the past few weeks. The Dow bottomed below 18,300 today. It thus, entered the 14,600-18,400 range I forecast when it was around 25,000.
My analysis of the waves is very much in sync with others. I would say there is a 25% chance of a significant bottom occurring between the 17,000’s and today’s low and a 75% chance of a bottom occurring in the 15,400 range. This latter figure has significant support as bottoms in 2015 and 2016 occurred around this figure. With both the waves and chart support suggesting 15,400 as the low, this figures gets greater weight at this time.
It is amazing to hear predictions of -30% to -50% for GDP and up to 30% unemployment. If these figures occur, we will have blown away The Great Depression and The War of Northern Aggression (aka the Civil War for those north of the Mason Dixon line).
TRIN is at 0.82 is incredibly far from signalling a bottom (1.60+).
VOO is at about -$2.5 Billion for last week. I would need to see -$10 to -$20 Billion to know the public has thrown in the towel. Or maybe several weeks of -$10 Billion at a minimum.
For those interested in Corporate Bonds, I was introduced to an indicator to watch. First, about 40% of Corporate Bonds graded BBB (lowest investment grade before becoming junk bonds) are expected to be downgraded to junk. Keep that in mind regarding current ratings. Remember, rating agencies are almost always BEHIND the curve with their grades. They will finally lower their ratings once all of the decline has occurred. They get paid for such hindsight.
Back to bonds….as long as the ETFs are trading at a discount to their NAV (Net Asset Value), the market is saying prices aren’t low enough, yet. I will follow ticker symbol BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund). It is currently trading at about a 3% discount.
Regarding Corporate Bonds, does anyone have a source that shows what is out there and what their prices are? Barron’s and the WSJ used to list all of them in their papers. But, they don’t do that any more:( If you know of a site that has this info, please share it with me. Thanks.
We shall see what the next two days bring and I will be back Wednesday evening with an update.
Stay safe.
The Mann
DID ANYONE ELSE FORECAST TODAY’S FIRST-EVER 3000 POINT DECLINE
MARCH 16TH (EVENING) – I am curious if anyone has seen anybody else predict that a 3000 point drop in one day would occur asap. Please email if you saw someone do such, as I like to keep up with such people who know how to forecast well.
For those new to my blog, there are two additional posts on this topic that will catch you up on how things have been playing out.
Please feel free to pass my website along to others. Although the short-term future is bleak, having a clue of what is coming helps alleviate the fear of the unknown.
Like The Great Depression II, this downturn has been easy to forecast. Hopefully, it will stay that way.
I mentioned that 14,600 to 18,400 is looking like a likely range for a bottom of some type – not sure, yet, if it will be an interim or final bottom. Interim seems more likely. With more information every day the market plays out, this range can be narrowed.
After today, I would narrow this range to 15,400 to 18,400. Also, there is a low-percentage chance of an interim bottom occurring in the 17,800-18,200 range. If a bottom occurs in that range, the rally will reveal if that is an interim bottom or just a temporary stop on the way down to an interim bottom. The odds are higher the market will decline thru 18,000 towards an interim bottom a few thousand points lower.
I would not be surprised if we get down to 18,000 tomorrow. The markets are moving that fast. By the way, the volatility of the last 3 days last occurred in 1929.
The decline in Oil is just ahead of the stock market. I haven’t tried to come up with specific targets in this market. But, I am thinking an interim bottom is forming in the $25-$30 range. This should be followed by a rally to $40 and then a decline back to a major low in the $25-$30 range again.
I still think it is too early to buy stocks. Especially when we are still in the midst of a Wave 3 (various degrees for those who follow wave theory) and Wave 3 is the most severe wave.
A side note…for the first time in history T-Bill rates briefly went negative today. Simply amazing the number of people worldwide willing to pay sovereign governments interest.
More of a note to myself, if Gold is truly in the last wave of a major Bear Market, then the target range is $829 to $928 an ounce.
Stay safe. Remember President Kennedy’s great quote:
Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.
All 320 million of us are in this virus fight together. Do your part and this will be over sooner than later.
Godspeed.
The Mann