AUGUST 31, 2024 – If the current momentum continues, the election will end up being a landslide for Harris/Walz. But, we have over two months to go and things usually ebb and flow.
SENATE – NO CHANGE FROM 2 WEEKS AGO – This is pretty much 50-49 GOP over Dems right now. The 50 for the GOP is a lock. 46 of the 49 for the Dems are a lock. 3 that are called a tossup by many – MI, OH, PA – appear to be pretty much Dem wins. The decisive race is in Montana and I would say that is as much of a lock for the GOP as those 3 are for the Dems. My call right now is 51-49 to the GOP.
HOUSE – It looks like this is a total toss-up. A ton of races too close to call. A winner might not be decided until days after the election.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am going to say 43 states (plus territories and DC) are a lock right now. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 possible tossup states.
AZ – Still a very close state. Let’s not give this to either candidate for now. This was Trump’s four weeks ago and it still appears to lean towards him.
WI – Harris has now pulled ahead by over one point. Harris 236 Trump 219
MI – It was Trump’s against Biden. Harris is now up by about two points. Soon this can be called a lock for Harris. Harris 251 Trump 219
NV – Almost as close as AZ. Trump still up slightly. However, last three polls favor Harris. This one is taken from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219
NC – Now the second closest state. A virtual dead heat. Taken away from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219.
GA – Now a dead heat. However, last three polls favor Harris.
Taken away from Trump and made a toss-up. Harris 251 Trump 219.
PA – It used to be neither could get to 270 without winning PA. That has changed. It is still a close state. But, it now favors Harris. We will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 251 Trump 219
In 2 weeks, I will likely move MI and WI to locks for Harris and remove them from this analysis. That will put us at Harris 251 Trump 219 with 5 toss-up states having 68 electoral votes.
For Harris it is either win PA or win 2 of the other 4 states as long as one of the states is GA or NC.
For Trump he MUST win PA. Beyond that he can either win GA and NC or both AZ and NV combined with GA or NC.
At this time, the odds and trend are favoring Harris.
However, with the GOP nearly 100% assured of winning the Senate, it looks like we will have a split government.
I will be back in 2 weeks to see if Harris’ momentum has continued. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann