NOVEMBER 6, 2024 – This is not a gloat post for the Trump side. All along, I have tried to present the facts and note where I think there is a gray area. That is basically what I do when explaining anything I do. So, here goes a summary of what we have learned over the past 3 months.
This was my final forecast:
“I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.” Although AZ, MI, and NV still have not been called, they all look like they will go to Trump. That will give him 312 electoral votes. I will take this perfect count and retire from forecasting elections:)
WHAT I GOT WRONG – Michigan and not thinking the results would be known Election Night. As I noted in my final analysis, Michigan had conflicting indicators. I switched to Harris and probably shouldn’t have. The States greatly improved their vote counting. That is a good thing to be wrong about.
SUMMARY – My entire adult life I have told people to do their own analysis and make their own decisions when it comes to investing or trading in stocks, commodities, real estate, et al.
Never listen to the talking heads like Jim Cramer or Goldman Sachs or anyone. I have never been wrong betting against what the great Goldman Sachs has forecast. They just get paid alot more than me:)
I worked extremely hard over the past 3 months on my election analysis. It was exhausting. I did all I could to account for the poll margins of errors, for the now validated 3 times argument that Republicans get underrepresented in the polls, the thought that those Republicans not answering pollsters would vote against Trump, illegal immigrant votes, et al. In the end, it looks like all that hard work got it exactly right. As I get paid the big bucks to provide my analyses, I think I will go out on this forecast. The amount of work was enormous. (Thanks to everyone that has sent me thanks for me sharing my analyses. I appreciate that. This is a labor of love for sure.) Maybe a rich person will pay me millions to provide my analyses privately to him/her:) Hopefully, I showed that you can do your own research and do better than the pundits and the economists and the analysts that get paid the big bucks. You can do it!
The one blunt thing I will say is that if you don’t accept as a FACT that the pollsters are equal to the Fake News Media in being owned by the Democrats, you are just not facing reality. It is funny to hear Democrats curse the pollsters this morning when it was them that told the pollsters to make it look like Harris was winning! Hypocrites and sore losers.
HOUSE – This won’t be settled for days or a week as expected.
I still think neither party will win by more than 3 seats. The word over night was the Dems were making some surprised pickups and might win the House. There was limited data for me to analyze so no way could I forecast a specific result. I could only conclude a plus or minus 3 seat difference for each party. We shall see how it ends up.
SENATE – All along, I said this was a 100% certainty that the GOP would get the 51-seat majority. I honestly did not try to make a specific count. I was simply focused on one of the parties getting to 51. The GOP already has 52 and could get up to 55. The high end might make it such that in 2026 the GOP will be certain to maintain the Senate. Please don’t double-dog dare me to make a forecast about that election lol
Hopefully, we will now eradicate DIE, ESG, the climate change hoax, men playing in women’s sports and being in their locker rooms, anything woke, et al. Americans spoke loud and clear about their disapproval of all that junk.
Lastly, Viva Fossil Fuels!!!
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: electoral college
FINAL ELECTION ANALYSIS
NOVEMBER 4, 2024 – Here is my final analysis and call. Save yourself some time and don’t watch all the BS live analyses on Tuesday evening. Only ONE result will be known Tuesday night – the GOP will win the Senate 51-49. The Montana race is all you need to watch.
HOUSE – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night. I think the GOP wins barely. But, I would be surprised to see either party win by more than 3 seats.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. A recent Iowa poll showing Harris in the lead is simply out to lunch. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Of the 7 states, this one is closest to a sure thing. Trump should win by about 2%. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – A baffling state re the polls. They show a dead heat.
In the past two elections, the polls underestimated Trump’s vote by an amazing 6%. The actual winning margin in both elections was 0.7%. I don’t see Trump winning by 6%. But, given how far off the polls have been in both Trump elections, I have to give this one to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – A mixture of signals. Polls are essentially a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 2-4 points. However, the polls have trended towards Harris in past few weeks. There is support for either candidate winning. I am going with a gut call and changing my forecast to Harris. Harris 241 Trump 240
NV – The polls for this state are as mixed up as they are for Michigan. This is another state I am going to switch my pick and give it to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 246
NC – Simple pick – Trump. He leads in the polls and led in the polls in the past two elections. Actual results were more in his favor than the polls showed. Like Arizona, pretty much a lock. Harris 241 Trump 262.
GA – The polls have been accurate in the past two elections.
The polls seem to have moved slightly towards Harris in the past week or two. However, with Trump up by about 1.5%, I will go with Trump. Harris 241 Trump 278
PA – Trump is up barely. The polls underestimated the Trump vote by about 1%-3% in the past two elections. Given that and 4 of the 5 November polls favoring Trump by 1% (Other is a tie), I will give this one to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 297
RealClearPolitics has Trump at 287-251.
Of the above, the one prediction that I think has the best chance of being wrong is Michigan. I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.
As I always say, we shall see……
Most importantly, please vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
HOUSE – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night. I think the GOP wins barely. But, I would be surprised to see either party win by more than 3 seats.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. A recent Iowa poll showing Harris in the lead is simply out to lunch. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Of the 7 states, this one is closest to a sure thing. Trump should win by about 2%. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – A baffling state re the polls. They show a dead heat.
In the past two elections, the polls underestimated Trump’s vote by an amazing 6%. The actual winning margin in both elections was 0.7%. I don’t see Trump winning by 6%. But, given how far off the polls have been in both Trump elections, I have to give this one to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – A mixture of signals. Polls are essentially a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 2-4 points. However, the polls have trended towards Harris in past few weeks. There is support for either candidate winning. I am going with a gut call and changing my forecast to Harris. Harris 241 Trump 240
NV – The polls for this state are as mixed up as they are for Michigan. This is another state I am going to switch my pick and give it to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 246
NC – Simple pick – Trump. He leads in the polls and led in the polls in the past two elections. Actual results were more in his favor than the polls showed. Like Arizona, pretty much a lock. Harris 241 Trump 262.
GA – The polls have been accurate in the past two elections.
The polls seem to have moved slightly towards Harris in the past week or two. However, with Trump up by about 1.5%, I will go with Trump. Harris 241 Trump 278
PA – Trump is up barely. The polls underestimated the Trump vote by about 1%-3% in the past two elections. Given that and 4 of the 5 November polls favoring Trump by 1% (Other is a tie), I will give this one to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 297
RealClearPolitics has Trump at 287-251.
Of the above, the one prediction that I think has the best chance of being wrong is Michigan. I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.
As I always say, we shall see……
Most importantly, please vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 30, 2024 – In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. Michigan is a total guess – will probably be settled by who produces the most fake ballots overnight:)
SUMMARY OF CHANGES SINCE LAST POST – Nothing for the Senate and House. Arizona and Georgia are close to becoming sure locks for Trump. I will make a final call on Monday or Election Day. As of today, I think this is solidly in Trump’s favor. As usual, the polling errors, illegal ballots, and GOP voters that won’t answer pollster questions, will determine the outcome.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 6%-7% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 2.2-2.5 points. A small margin of error for the polls. This one is becoming a lock for Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. Harris has not won any of the most recent 8 polls. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.5 points. The last 6 polls are 1 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. This continues to go to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 1.0 points versus 0.7-0.8 points 5 days ago. Of the last 11 polls, it is 2 for Harris, 6 for Trump, and 3 Ties. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.4-2.4 points. Like Arizona, this is about a sure thing for Trump now. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 297 if a winner has to be picked for every state. They flipped Michigan back to Harris.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
SUMMARY OF CHANGES SINCE LAST POST – Nothing for the Senate and House. Arizona and Georgia are close to becoming sure locks for Trump. I will make a final call on Monday or Election Day. As of today, I think this is solidly in Trump’s favor. As usual, the polling errors, illegal ballots, and GOP voters that won’t answer pollster questions, will determine the outcome.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 6%-7% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 2.2-2.5 points. A small margin of error for the polls. This one is becoming a lock for Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. Harris has not won any of the most recent 8 polls. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.5 points. The last 6 polls are 1 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. This continues to go to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 1.0 points versus 0.7-0.8 points 5 days ago. Of the last 11 polls, it is 2 for Harris, 6 for Trump, and 3 Ties. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.4-2.4 points. Like Arizona, this is about a sure thing for Trump now. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 297 if a winner has to be picked for every state. They flipped Michigan back to Harris.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 26, 2024 – For some perspective on how Trump is doing in the polls versus the past two elections, RealClearPolitics provides such data for this same date in 2020 and 2016. Trump is doing better today in all of the battleground states, except Georgia. Following is how much better he is doing in comparison to 2020 and 2016:
National – 5.5%-7.9%
Wisconsin – 5.7%-6.2%
Pennsylvania – 4.9%-5.4%
Michigan – 9.2%-9.7%
Arizona – 3.0%-3.7%
Nevada – 2.7%-5.9%
North Carolina – 2.0%-3.5%
Georgia – -1.1% to +1.8%
Except for Georgia, those are huge improvements over both of the prior elections.
OCTOBER 25, 2024 – Best to update this frequently at this point. In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 7%-8% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 1.5-1.6 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.2-0.3 points. Six of the last 9 polls are Ties. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Trump is up by 0.2-0.4 points. The last 4 polls have been very divergent with Harris up by 3.5 points and Trump up by 2.5 points. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.1-0.7 points. The last 6 polls are 2 for Harris, 2 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. For now, this one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 0.7-0.8 points. Of the last 8 polls, it is 3 for Harris, 4 for Trump, and 1 Tie. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 2.0-2.2 points. Nine of 10 8 October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 312 if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 22, 2024 – Best to update this frequently at this point. In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 7%-8% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 32 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 11 seats. Of the 32 toss-up seats, 19 are incumbent Democrats and 13 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 1.8-2.0 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.4 points. Of the last 7 polls, Trump leads in 2, Harris in 1, and 4 are Ties. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Trump is up by 1.2-1.3 points. The last 8 polls have Trump ahead (one to four points) or show a Tie. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.3-0.9 points. The last 6 polls are 2 for Harris, 2 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. For now, this one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 0.3-0.4 points. Of the last 7 polls, it is 3 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 1 Tie. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.7-2.5 points. All 8 October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are leaning towards Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. For the first time, I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.8-1.0 points. The last 3 polls all have Trump up by 3 points. It’s too early to call, but this one is starting to pull well into Trump’s favor. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 312 (up from 302 a week ago) if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 16, 2024 – In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – LET’S CALL THIS ONE – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49.
HOUSE – 32 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 11 seats. Of the 32 toss-up seats, 19 are incumbent Democrats and 13 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am staying with 43 states (plus territories and DC) as locks. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump up by about one point and all three October polls have him up by 2-5 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Now a dead heat. Last three polls were a Tie. One other October poll favored Trump by two points. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – This has reversed from Harris by one point to now Trump up by one point. Three of the last four polls have Trump ahead (one to four points) and the other is a Tie. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Harris up by about 0.5%. Both October polls have Harris up by one point. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. This one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by over one point. The most current poll has Harris up by three points. However, almost every other poll has Trump up by one to five points. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump up by less than a point. All four October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. I will keep this one a tossup. The polls are leaning towards Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that. Tough call. Is anyone watching how ballots will be counted in Atlanta after midnight on Election Day;) Harris 232 Trump 271
PA – Trump up by about 0.5%. Four of the six October polls favor Trump. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Like Atlanta, who will be watching the Philadelphia ballots after midnight;) Harris 232 Trump 271
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 302 if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
I will try to post updates at least weekly going forward. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann