NOVEMBER 4, 2024 – Here is my final analysis and call. Save yourself some time and don’t watch all the BS live analyses on Tuesday evening. Only ONE result will be known Tuesday night – the GOP will win the Senate 51-49. The Montana race is all you need to watch.
HOUSE – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night. I think the GOP wins barely. But, I would be surprised to see either party win by more than 3 seats.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. A recent Iowa poll showing Harris in the lead is simply out to lunch. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Of the 7 states, this one is closest to a sure thing. Trump should win by about 2%. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – A baffling state re the polls. They show a dead heat.
In the past two elections, the polls underestimated Trump’s vote by an amazing 6%. The actual winning margin in both elections was 0.7%. I don’t see Trump winning by 6%. But, given how far off the polls have been in both Trump elections, I have to give this one to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – A mixture of signals. Polls are essentially a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 2-4 points. However, the polls have trended towards Harris in past few weeks. There is support for either candidate winning. I am going with a gut call and changing my forecast to Harris. Harris 241 Trump 240
NV – The polls for this state are as mixed up as they are for Michigan. This is another state I am going to switch my pick and give it to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 246
NC – Simple pick – Trump. He leads in the polls and led in the polls in the past two elections. Actual results were more in his favor than the polls showed. Like Arizona, pretty much a lock. Harris 241 Trump 262.
GA – The polls have been accurate in the past two elections.
The polls seem to have moved slightly towards Harris in the past week or two. However, with Trump up by about 1.5%, I will go with Trump. Harris 241 Trump 278
PA – Trump is up barely. The polls underestimated the Trump vote by about 1%-3% in the past two elections. Given that and 4 of the 5 November polls favoring Trump by 1% (Other is a tie), I will give this one to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 297
RealClearPolitics has Trump at 287-251.
Of the above, the one prediction that I think has the best chance of being wrong is Michigan. I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.
As I always say, we shall see……
Most importantly, please vote!
Shalom,
The Mann