NOVEMBER 4, 2024 – Here is my final analysis and call. Save yourself some time and don’t watch all the BS live analyses on Tuesday evening. Only ONE result will be known Tuesday night – the GOP will win the Senate 51-49. The Montana race is all you need to watch.
HOUSE – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night. I think the GOP wins barely. But, I would be surprised to see either party win by more than 3 seats.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. A recent Iowa poll showing Harris in the lead is simply out to lunch. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Of the 7 states, this one is closest to a sure thing. Trump should win by about 2%. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – A baffling state re the polls. They show a dead heat.
In the past two elections, the polls underestimated Trump’s vote by an amazing 6%. The actual winning margin in both elections was 0.7%. I don’t see Trump winning by 6%. But, given how far off the polls have been in both Trump elections, I have to give this one to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – A mixture of signals. Polls are essentially a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 2-4 points. However, the polls have trended towards Harris in past few weeks. There is support for either candidate winning. I am going with a gut call and changing my forecast to Harris. Harris 241 Trump 240
NV – The polls for this state are as mixed up as they are for Michigan. This is another state I am going to switch my pick and give it to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 246
NC – Simple pick – Trump. He leads in the polls and led in the polls in the past two elections. Actual results were more in his favor than the polls showed. Like Arizona, pretty much a lock. Harris 241 Trump 262.
GA – The polls have been accurate in the past two elections.
The polls seem to have moved slightly towards Harris in the past week or two. However, with Trump up by about 1.5%, I will go with Trump. Harris 241 Trump 278
PA – Trump is up barely. The polls underestimated the Trump vote by about 1%-3% in the past two elections. Given that and 4 of the 5 November polls favoring Trump by 1% (Other is a tie), I will give this one to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 297
RealClearPolitics has Trump at 287-251.
Of the above, the one prediction that I think has the best chance of being wrong is Michigan. I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.
As I always say, we shall see……
Most importantly, please vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: election
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 16, 2024 – In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – LET’S CALL THIS ONE – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49.
HOUSE – 32 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 11 seats. Of the 32 toss-up seats, 19 are incumbent Democrats and 13 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – SEE AUGUST 4TH POST FOR INITIAL AND DETAILED THOUGHTS – I am staying with 43 states (plus territories and DC) as locks. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump up by about one point and all three October polls have him up by 2-5 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Now a dead heat. Last three polls were a Tie. One other October poll favored Trump by two points. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – This has reversed from Harris by one point to now Trump up by one point. Three of the last four polls have Trump ahead (one to four points) and the other is a Tie. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Harris up by about 0.5%. Both October polls have Harris up by one point. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. This one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by over one point. The most current poll has Harris up by three points. However, almost every other poll has Trump up by one to five points. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump up by less than a point. All four October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. I will keep this one a tossup. The polls are leaning towards Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that. Tough call. Is anyone watching how ballots will be counted in Atlanta after midnight on Election Day;) Harris 232 Trump 271
PA – Trump up by about 0.5%. Four of the six October polls favor Trump. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Like Atlanta, who will be watching the Philadelphia ballots after midnight;) Harris 232 Trump 271
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 302 if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
I will try to post updates at least weekly going forward. Til then…
Shalom,
The Mann