OCTOBER 30, 2024 – In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. Michigan is a total guess – will probably be settled by who produces the most fake ballots overnight:)
SUMMARY OF CHANGES SINCE LAST POST – Nothing for the Senate and House. Arizona and Georgia are close to becoming sure locks for Trump. I will make a final call on Monday or Election Day. As of today, I think this is solidly in Trump’s favor. As usual, the polling errors, illegal ballots, and GOP voters that won’t answer pollster questions, will determine the outcome.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 6%-7% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 2.2-2.5 points. A small margin of error for the polls. This one is becoming a lock for Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. Harris has not won any of the most recent 8 polls. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.5 points. The last 6 polls are 1 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. This continues to go to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 1.0 points versus 0.7-0.8 points 5 days ago. Of the last 11 polls, it is 2 for Harris, 6 for Trump, and 3 Ties. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.4-2.4 points. Like Arizona, this is about a sure thing for Trump now. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 297 if a winner has to be picked for every state. They flipped Michigan back to Harris.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann