NOVEMBER 12, 2024 – This is a nice summary of how bad the pollsters were. And facts showing how they are extremely biased towards the Democrats. As I said in my final post about the election, you are simply not facing reality if you think political polls aren’t 100%+ biased in favor of the Dems. We should RIP these pollsters. But, we won’t. They are owned by the Fake News Media and that will bring them back for the lemming followers.
Shalom,
The Mann
https://capitalresearch.org/article/agents-of-influence-the-pitiful-presidential-pollsters/
Tag Archives: fake news media
A POST-MORTEM OF MY ELECTION ANALYSIS
NOVEMBER 6, 2024 – This is not a gloat post for the Trump side. All along, I have tried to present the facts and note where I think there is a gray area. That is basically what I do when explaining anything I do. So, here goes a summary of what we have learned over the past 3 months.
This was my final forecast:
“I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.” Although AZ, MI, and NV still have not been called, they all look like they will go to Trump. That will give him 312 electoral votes. I will take this perfect count and retire from forecasting elections:)
WHAT I GOT WRONG – Michigan and not thinking the results would be known Election Night. As I noted in my final analysis, Michigan had conflicting indicators. I switched to Harris and probably shouldn’t have. The States greatly improved their vote counting. That is a good thing to be wrong about.
SUMMARY – My entire adult life I have told people to do their own analysis and make their own decisions when it comes to investing or trading in stocks, commodities, real estate, et al.
Never listen to the talking heads like Jim Cramer or Goldman Sachs or anyone. I have never been wrong betting against what the great Goldman Sachs has forecast. They just get paid alot more than me:)
I worked extremely hard over the past 3 months on my election analysis. It was exhausting. I did all I could to account for the poll margins of errors, for the now validated 3 times argument that Republicans get underrepresented in the polls, the thought that those Republicans not answering pollsters would vote against Trump, illegal immigrant votes, et al. In the end, it looks like all that hard work got it exactly right. As I get paid the big bucks to provide my analyses, I think I will go out on this forecast. The amount of work was enormous. (Thanks to everyone that has sent me thanks for me sharing my analyses. I appreciate that. This is a labor of love for sure.) Maybe a rich person will pay me millions to provide my analyses privately to him/her:) Hopefully, I showed that you can do your own research and do better than the pundits and the economists and the analysts that get paid the big bucks. You can do it!
The one blunt thing I will say is that if you don’t accept as a FACT that the pollsters are equal to the Fake News Media in being owned by the Democrats, you are just not facing reality. It is funny to hear Democrats curse the pollsters this morning when it was them that told the pollsters to make it look like Harris was winning! Hypocrites and sore losers.
HOUSE – This won’t be settled for days or a week as expected.
I still think neither party will win by more than 3 seats. The word over night was the Dems were making some surprised pickups and might win the House. There was limited data for me to analyze so no way could I forecast a specific result. I could only conclude a plus or minus 3 seat difference for each party. We shall see how it ends up.
SENATE – All along, I said this was a 100% certainty that the GOP would get the 51-seat majority. I honestly did not try to make a specific count. I was simply focused on one of the parties getting to 51. The GOP already has 52 and could get up to 55. The high end might make it such that in 2026 the GOP will be certain to maintain the Senate. Please don’t double-dog dare me to make a forecast about that election lol
Hopefully, we will now eradicate DIE, ESG, the climate change hoax, men playing in women’s sports and being in their locker rooms, anything woke, et al. Americans spoke loud and clear about their disapproval of all that junk.
Lastly, Viva Fossil Fuels!!!
Shalom,
The Mann
“WE HAVE AN OVERSUPPLY OF HOUSING” – THE MANN
UPDATED – OCTOBER 26, 2022 – I have added some data regarding the number of vacant housing units in America at the bottom of this post.
OCTOBER 24, 2022 – There, I said it. Made it 100% clear for everyone to understand. I might be the lone voice saying this for the past 5-10+ years. So be it.
Population growth in this country has been slowing for the entire 21st Century. It will continue to slow. NAR, Homebuilders, and the Fake News Media can tell you that we have a housing shortage. That is what they must tell you so they can keep making their money – at the expense of John Q. Public.
Some facts….
There are over 1.7 million housing units under construction. That is almost a 50-year high (yes, 50 years ago we had a much smaller population). More importantly, in the housing crisis 15 years ago, we peaked at only 1.4 million housing units. We have more housing being built today with a much slower growing population.
In the 1970’s, when Baby Boomers were at the age to buy homes in mass, that population segment grew at a 4.5% annual pace. Millennials of the same population segment today are growing at only a 1.2% annual rate! That is almost a 75% reduction in the demand for housing! Adjusting for a 56% increase in population since 1972, this is still a 58% reduction in the demand for housing!!!
I would guess if we didn’t build a single housing unit for 5+ years we would still have vacant houses and apartments all over this country. Instead of building new shoddy manufactured houses, let’s focus on rehabbing the well-built housing of decades ago. Most of this product is in existing built-up areas with infrastructure in place. Take advantage of that.
One day when people start to admit we have had an oversupply of housing for over a decade, please remember The Mann told them so:)
Shalom,
The Mann
ADDED OCTOBER 26, 2022 – I was wondering how many vacant units we have in America. So, some quick research found the following. Sources obviously can vary in their figures.
We have 142 million housing units in America. The number of apartment units is estimated to be 21.3 million. We can assume the remainder are houses – 121.7 million.
National apartment vacancy is reported to be 6%. This indicates 1.3 million vacant units. As of 2020, the home vacancy rate was 9.7%. This indicates 11.8 million vacant units. The sum is 13.1 million vacant housing units in America.
As I noted in the original part of the post above, we could go several years without building a single house or apartment complex and we would still have many millions of vacant units.
One last tidbit of information to consider. I once worked with an economist that assumed every year 1% of existing real estate (housing, office, retail, industrial, etc.) became obsolete and/or was demolished. At 142 million housing units, that would mean 1.4 million units are taken off the market each year. That helps provide some constant need for new housing. Again, this is an assumption. It seems like an awful lot of houses and apartments being abandoned or demolished every year. But, …
That is all I have for now.
ANOTHER WEEK, ANOTHER 8% MOVE IN ONE DAY
APRIL 6 (EVENING) – Today’s huge rally has increased the odds that this Bear Market rally has a ways to go. The high end for the rally is in the low 25,000s. This is beyond what I thought could happen initially. However, the goal of this first major Bear Market rally is to convince the public that a V-shaped recovery is underway and we are headed back to new all-time highs. A Bear Market’s goal is to get as many people in to it and then go down to a level where people don’t ever want to own stocks again.
Regarding real estate, since this market lags the stock market by 4-5 quarters it will be awhile before things become more clear.
One property type to add to the high-risk list is movie theaters. DIsney and others had to quickly learn how to get their new movies to the public without going thru the movie theater distribution routine. Now that they have done this, will the public be content to go back to the old way of doing things? Forever, new music has been sold directly to the public and the public then decides if they want to go see the artist in concert. Why should movies be any different? Sell movies directly to us and we will decide if we want to go see them in a movie theater, also. Will movie theaters die a slow death like drive-in movie theaters have? These properties are certainly attractive to those seeking last mile distribution points.
Reports are that developers are moving forward with projects. Investors may have called a time-out. But, developers have not.
Dozens and dozens of national and regional retailers have asked their landlords for rent relief. This puts landlords in a tough spot as their mortgage payments are obviously due each month. A domino effect will occur with everyone helping each other. But, there will be enough hiccups that things won’t go smoothly.
Many businesses will close up for good (one report is 30% of all restaurants in California will be closed permanently…..I would think this would occur nationwide, too). As a result, some property owners will default on their loans. This won’t be 2006-2011 all over again. But, there will be enough carnage for everyone to deal with.
A former head of the SBA predicts 20%-30% of all businesses will fail. This sounds dire. However, I also heard that 1/3 of businesses fail every year anyway. As always, I encourage you to do your own research. Don’t take anything you hear as gospel – especially if it is coming from the Fake News Media! The number of conspiracy theories grows by the day. People (who desperately need to do something better with their lives!) are circulating reports that quote Stanford or Johns Hopkins or other such respected organizations as saying this or that. Those are made up stories. Go to Snopes.Com or other places to see if they address any story you think may be fictitious.
An interesting item of note…..Amazon has their annual Prime Day on July 15th. An internal memo says they plan on delaying this event. That is a telling sign. For Amazon to think that consumers will not be ready to spend, even online (!), by mid-July is extremely negative. Keep that in mind as we hear cheerful news in May and June.
Depending on how the markets move, I may post Wednesday evening or wait til Friday evening.
Everyone stay safe and well. Have a blessed Holy Week.
The Mann