OCTOBER 26, 2024 – For some perspective on how Trump is doing in the polls versus the past two elections, RealClearPolitics provides such data for this same date in 2020 and 2016. Trump is doing better today in all of the battleground states, except Georgia. Following is how much better he is doing in comparison to 2020 and 2016:
National – 5.5%-7.9%
Wisconsin – 5.7%-6.2%
Pennsylvania – 4.9%-5.4%
Michigan – 9.2%-9.7%
Arizona – 3.0%-3.7%
Nevada – 2.7%-5.9%
North Carolina – 2.0%-3.5%
Georgia – -1.1% to +1.8%
Except for Georgia, those are huge improvements over both of the prior elections.
OCTOBER 25, 2024 – Best to update this frequently at this point. In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 7%-8% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 1.5-1.6 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.2-0.3 points. Six of the last 9 polls are Ties. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Trump is up by 0.2-0.4 points. The last 4 polls have been very divergent with Harris up by 3.5 points and Trump up by 2.5 points. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.1-0.7 points. The last 6 polls are 2 for Harris, 2 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. For now, this one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 0.7-0.8 points. Of the last 8 polls, it is 3 for Harris, 4 for Trump, and 1 Tie. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 2.0-2.2 points. Nine of 10 8 October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 312 if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann