JANUARY 26, 2026 – Now, it is official that everyone that said tariffs would lead to runaway inflation and a recession have been PROVEN WRONG! Will they admit it? No. Just research anyone you hear to see if they had predicted tariffs would be a problem. If they did, then why listen to them now? You heard me say from the beginning they would not be a problem.
December CPI came in at an amazing 2.7%. It is hard to explain how incredible the year ending below 3.0% is. I doubt anyone will mention this, but, deflation might be more of a worry now. 3-month inflation is -0.9% and 6-month inflation is +0.9%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 1.9%-2.1% in the next report. January usually has about the highest inflation reading of the year. So, I would expect something in the 2.5%-2.8%.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: recession
HAPPY NEW YEAR
DECEMBER 26, 2025 – I hope you had a great 2025 and that 2026 will be even better. Just a quick update on various items.
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
JUST TO REITERATE – 0% CHANCE OF A RECESSION THIS YEAR
SEPTEMBER 25, 2025 – A reminder there are just 3 months until Christmas:) You are welcome.
Second Quarter GDP was revised upward to +3.8%. Basically, the first half of the year saw about 2% growth. Third Quarter GDP is forecast to be around 3%. It is likely economic growth will be increasing through yearend – not decreasing as most everyone has forecast all year. Let me say it again – tariffs are not relevant!
The DOW 30 is at all-time highs over 46,000. Basically, it is saying we will have a strong economy through the 1st Quarter of 2026.
NOTE: 2025 MAY SEE THE FIRST EVER POPULATION DECLINE IN AMERICA’S HISTORY!!! I have long told everyone they need to be planning on contracting demand. Stop planning on growth forever. The workforce peaked around 2000. It will never get back to that size. Plan accordingly!
RIP 2025 Recession Forecast
Shalom,
The Mann
Second Quarter GDP was revised upward to +3.8%. Basically, the first half of the year saw about 2% growth. Third Quarter GDP is forecast to be around 3%. It is likely economic growth will be increasing through yearend – not decreasing as most everyone has forecast all year. Let me say it again – tariffs are not relevant!
The DOW 30 is at all-time highs over 46,000. Basically, it is saying we will have a strong economy through the 1st Quarter of 2026.
NOTE: 2025 MAY SEE THE FIRST EVER POPULATION DECLINE IN AMERICA’S HISTORY!!! I have long told everyone they need to be planning on contracting demand. Stop planning on growth forever. The workforce peaked around 2000. It will never get back to that size. Plan accordingly!
RIP 2025 Recession Forecast
Shalom,
The Mann
ZERO CHANCE OF RECESSION IN 2025
UPDATE AUGUST 15, 2025 – RIP any chance of a recession occurring this year. The Dow hit an all-time high this morning above 45,200. Don’t worry about a recession this year. With a good chance of CPI being above 3% in the 4th Quarter (as I noted in another post, that has NOTHING to do with tariffs), that is the only item for you to deal with that might affect your decision-making.
AUGUST 1, 2025 – With the Jobs Report coming in very weak today, immediately the pundits began screaming that a recession was occurring. Let me be clear and to the point – there is a 0% (!) chance of a recession occurring this year. No doublespeak from me:)
With the 3rd Quarter GDP very likely to be positive, we will not have two consecutive negative quarters this year. As I noted before, the 1st Quarter GDP was only negative because of an atypical trade issue due to the tariffs. Averaging out the first quarters, GDP has been above 1% this year. It will likely end the year up 1.5%-2.0%. This is an EXTREMELY STRONG economy. GDP growing at over twice the rate of population indicates a strong economy.
Another indicator used to forecast recessions is the yield curve. It is currently a negative 35bp. We are a long way from +100bp which will indicate we are in a recession.
Also, the stock market has made it clear that the economy will be strong through yearend. Yes, a hiccup and bit of a slowdown here and there are likely. But, overall, growth will be strong and a recession will not occur this year.
Let the recession-screaming pundits show how wrong they are over the next five months.
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY & FED FUNDS UPDATE
UPDATE AUGUST 4, 2025 – After the Job Report, the market adjusted the Fed Funds Rate to 4.0%-4.2%. This is getting the Fed set up to lower the rate 25bp in September. But, that is over 7 weeks away. The market can change its mind in the interim.
JULY 30, 2025 – You can go back to my July 1st post that says the following:
“1st Quarter GDP was adjusted to -0.5%. 2nd Quarter GDP should come in around 3% (2.5%-4.0% seems to be the consensus). The average for the first half of the year should be around 1.3%.”
2nd Quarter GDP came in at exactly 3.0%. I’ll take that, albeit just a lucky guess on my part. The consensus ended up being +2.3%.
The Tariff Mongers now have to start screaming about the rest of the year being doomsday. A stopped clock is right twice a day. Which is two more times than the Tariff Mongers will be:)
As noted, in my Fed Funds Rate posts, the Fed did as the market told them to do – no change in the rate. The Fed following the market 100% of the time continues.
It will be interesting to see if Powell’s successor lowers rates when the market is saying not to. That would be unprecedented and I think it will cause major market turmoil. We will revisit this when we get to that bridge.
My ad nauseum reminder to you is what actually predicted the above two items? The market. Not The Mann. I simply interpret what the market is saying. Six months in advance the stock market said the economy would have a hiccup in the 1st Quarter followed by strength in the 2nd Quarter. It is saying the same for the 3rd and 4th Quarters. So, any weakness in the 3rd Quarter (early estimates are above +2%) will let the Tariff Mongers say they are right. The 4th Quarter will show they were never right.
Remember, ignore all the pundits. Simply watch what the market is forecasting 6 months in advance. It is that easy. And it is free information:)
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY UPDATE
JULY 1, 2025 – The first half of the year is over. And what a 6 months it was!
Of course, most analysts are predicting a recession this year due to the tariffs. Do tariffs have anything to do with a recession? You know my answer – NO! What is the sole indicator to watch for a future recession – the stock market. Let’s look at some numbers to see what the future holds.
1st Quarter GDP was adjusted to -0.5%. 2nd Quarter GDP should come in around 3% (2.5%-4.0% seems to be the consensus). The average for the first half of the year should be around 1.3%.
As I mentioned in my last economy post, 1st Quarter GDP was artificially low by 2% due to extreme import trade. This will be reversed in the 2nd Quarter GDP. So, this cancels out and that is why the average of the first two quarters is the best indicator of GDP for the year-to-date.
For a recession to occur this year, the 3rd and 4th Quarters will need to have negative GDP readings. Based on the stock market (the Dow 30 is within about 1% of a new high, while most other indices have new all-time highs), the economy should be very strong as the year end. The March/April downturn does suggest a negative surprise will occur in September/October. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
Shalom,
The Mann
Of course, most analysts are predicting a recession this year due to the tariffs. Do tariffs have anything to do with a recession? You know my answer – NO! What is the sole indicator to watch for a future recession – the stock market. Let’s look at some numbers to see what the future holds.
1st Quarter GDP was adjusted to -0.5%. 2nd Quarter GDP should come in around 3% (2.5%-4.0% seems to be the consensus). The average for the first half of the year should be around 1.3%.
As I mentioned in my last economy post, 1st Quarter GDP was artificially low by 2% due to extreme import trade. This will be reversed in the 2nd Quarter GDP. So, this cancels out and that is why the average of the first two quarters is the best indicator of GDP for the year-to-date.
For a recession to occur this year, the 3rd and 4th Quarters will need to have negative GDP readings. Based on the stock market (the Dow 30 is within about 1% of a new high, while most other indices have new all-time highs), the economy should be very strong as the year end. The March/April downturn does suggest a negative surprise will occur in September/October. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY UPDATE
MAY 2, 2025 – It is really difficult to write anything about the economy after the passing of KC Conway, CRE, MAI this week. KC was a great guy. Brilliant mind. The last 20+ years of his career he turned his focus to being an economist. Everyone liked KC. A rare individual. He will be missed by our industry and obviously his family and friends. RIP my friend.
Very briefly, 1st Quarter GDP came in at a -0.3%. As I mentioned in my April 5th post, and last August, the stock market was forecasting a huge negative surprise for this quarter. 99%+ of us had no clue what would cause it. That doesn’t matter. The stock market just says it will happen.
My last email to KC went unanswered. I now know why. I was wondering how much of the GDP reading was attributed to the extreme import trade as companies rushed to beat the tariffs. KC never replied. I have since heard it was probably around 2.0%. So, the actual GDP would have been around +1.7%.
As the import trade will be the reverse in the 2nd Quarter and companies will have stopped ordering from overseas, this will ‘falsely’ inflate the GDP by a similar amount. Early indications are around +2%. This might fall as the economy will definitely be weakening into the Summer. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
That said, the market has forecast significant weakness at the beginning of the Fall. Things should be much clearer by then.
As an aside, the DOW Industrials never did trigger a Bear Market. They came close like last August.
That’s enough. Remember, to enjoy EVERY day of your life. We do not know when it will be our last.
Shalom,
The Mann
Very briefly, 1st Quarter GDP came in at a -0.3%. As I mentioned in my April 5th post, and last August, the stock market was forecasting a huge negative surprise for this quarter. 99%+ of us had no clue what would cause it. That doesn’t matter. The stock market just says it will happen.
My last email to KC went unanswered. I now know why. I was wondering how much of the GDP reading was attributed to the extreme import trade as companies rushed to beat the tariffs. KC never replied. I have since heard it was probably around 2.0%. So, the actual GDP would have been around +1.7%.
As the import trade will be the reverse in the 2nd Quarter and companies will have stopped ordering from overseas, this will ‘falsely’ inflate the GDP by a similar amount. Early indications are around +2%. This might fall as the economy will definitely be weakening into the Summer. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
That said, the market has forecast significant weakness at the beginning of the Fall. Things should be much clearer by then.
As an aside, the DOW Industrials never did trigger a Bear Market. They came close like last August.
That’s enough. Remember, to enjoy EVERY day of your life. We do not know when it will be our last.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
APRIL 11, 2025 – The March report came in at 2.4%, at the low end of what the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 5.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.9%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase. The data is predicting a reading of 2.2%-2.4% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY UPDATE
APRIL 4, 2025 – OK, it is tough for me to stay away when a nice bear market is going on:) It is almost exactly 5 years to the last time we saw a falling knife market. Back then, I believe I was the first and only person to predict well in advance that we would see the first ever 2,000- and 3,000-point down days in the Dow 30. Today, we had another 2,000-point down day. I have constantly explained that the market predicts things 6 months into the future. So, let’s see what it has been saying about the economy.
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
MARCH 12, 2025 – The February report came in at 2.8%, below my estimate at 3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.7%. These figures are at or above the annualized rate (2.8%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain steady. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I am thinking 2.6%-2.8%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.