SEPTEMBER 25, 2025 – A reminder there are just 3 months until Christmas:) You are welcome.
Second Quarter GDP was revised upward to +3.8%. Basically, the first half of the year saw about 2% growth. Third Quarter GDP is forecast to be around 3%. It is likely economic growth will be increasing through yearend – not decreasing as most everyone has forecast all year. Let me say it again – tariffs are not relevant!
The DOW 30 is at all-time highs over 46,000. Basically, it is saying we will have a strong economy through the 1st Quarter of 2026.
NOTE: 2025 MAY SEE THE FIRST EVER POPULATION DECLINE IN AMERICA’S HISTORY!!! I have long told everyone they need to be planning on contracting demand. Stop planning on growth forever. The workforce peaked around 2000. It will never get back to that size. Plan accordingly!
RIP 2025 Recession Forecast
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: recession
ZERO CHANCE OF RECESSION IN 2025
UPDATE AUGUST 15, 2025 – RIP any chance of a recession occurring this year. The Dow hit an all-time high this morning above 45,200. Don’t worry about a recession this year. With a good chance of CPI being above 3% in the 4th Quarter (as I noted in another post, that has NOTHING to do with tariffs), that is the only item for you to deal with that might affect your decision-making.
AUGUST 1, 2025 – With the Jobs Report coming in very weak today, immediately the pundits began screaming that a recession was occurring. Let me be clear and to the point – there is a 0% (!) chance of a recession occurring this year. No doublespeak from me:)
With the 3rd Quarter GDP very likely to be positive, we will not have two consecutive negative quarters this year. As I noted before, the 1st Quarter GDP was only negative because of an atypical trade issue due to the tariffs. Averaging out the first quarters, GDP has been above 1% this year. It will likely end the year up 1.5%-2.0%. This is an EXTREMELY STRONG economy. GDP growing at over twice the rate of population indicates a strong economy.
Another indicator used to forecast recessions is the yield curve. It is currently a negative 35bp. We are a long way from +100bp which will indicate we are in a recession.
Also, the stock market has made it clear that the economy will be strong through yearend. Yes, a hiccup and bit of a slowdown here and there are likely. But, overall, growth will be strong and a recession will not occur this year.
Let the recession-screaming pundits show how wrong they are over the next five months.
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY & FED FUNDS UPDATE
UPDATE AUGUST 4, 2025 – After the Job Report, the market adjusted the Fed Funds Rate to 4.0%-4.2%. This is getting the Fed set up to lower the rate 25bp in September. But, that is over 7 weeks away. The market can change its mind in the interim.
JULY 30, 2025 – You can go back to my July 1st post that says the following:
“1st Quarter GDP was adjusted to -0.5%. 2nd Quarter GDP should come in around 3% (2.5%-4.0% seems to be the consensus). The average for the first half of the year should be around 1.3%.”
2nd Quarter GDP came in at exactly 3.0%. I’ll take that, albeit just a lucky guess on my part. The consensus ended up being +2.3%.
The Tariff Mongers now have to start screaming about the rest of the year being doomsday. A stopped clock is right twice a day. Which is two more times than the Tariff Mongers will be:)
As noted, in my Fed Funds Rate posts, the Fed did as the market told them to do – no change in the rate. The Fed following the market 100% of the time continues.
It will be interesting to see if Powell’s successor lowers rates when the market is saying not to. That would be unprecedented and I think it will cause major market turmoil. We will revisit this when we get to that bridge.
My ad nauseum reminder to you is what actually predicted the above two items? The market. Not The Mann. I simply interpret what the market is saying. Six months in advance the stock market said the economy would have a hiccup in the 1st Quarter followed by strength in the 2nd Quarter. It is saying the same for the 3rd and 4th Quarters. So, any weakness in the 3rd Quarter (early estimates are above +2%) will let the Tariff Mongers say they are right. The 4th Quarter will show they were never right.
Remember, ignore all the pundits. Simply watch what the market is forecasting 6 months in advance. It is that easy. And it is free information:)
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY UPDATE
JULY 1, 2025 – The first half of the year is over. And what a 6 months it was!
Of course, most analysts are predicting a recession this year due to the tariffs. Do tariffs have anything to do with a recession? You know my answer – NO! What is the sole indicator to watch for a future recession – the stock market. Let’s look at some numbers to see what the future holds.
1st Quarter GDP was adjusted to -0.5%. 2nd Quarter GDP should come in around 3% (2.5%-4.0% seems to be the consensus). The average for the first half of the year should be around 1.3%.
As I mentioned in my last economy post, 1st Quarter GDP was artificially low by 2% due to extreme import trade. This will be reversed in the 2nd Quarter GDP. So, this cancels out and that is why the average of the first two quarters is the best indicator of GDP for the year-to-date.
For a recession to occur this year, the 3rd and 4th Quarters will need to have negative GDP readings. Based on the stock market (the Dow 30 is within about 1% of a new high, while most other indices have new all-time highs), the economy should be very strong as the year end. The March/April downturn does suggest a negative surprise will occur in September/October. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
Shalom,
The Mann
Of course, most analysts are predicting a recession this year due to the tariffs. Do tariffs have anything to do with a recession? You know my answer – NO! What is the sole indicator to watch for a future recession – the stock market. Let’s look at some numbers to see what the future holds.
1st Quarter GDP was adjusted to -0.5%. 2nd Quarter GDP should come in around 3% (2.5%-4.0% seems to be the consensus). The average for the first half of the year should be around 1.3%.
As I mentioned in my last economy post, 1st Quarter GDP was artificially low by 2% due to extreme import trade. This will be reversed in the 2nd Quarter GDP. So, this cancels out and that is why the average of the first two quarters is the best indicator of GDP for the year-to-date.
For a recession to occur this year, the 3rd and 4th Quarters will need to have negative GDP readings. Based on the stock market (the Dow 30 is within about 1% of a new high, while most other indices have new all-time highs), the economy should be very strong as the year end. The March/April downturn does suggest a negative surprise will occur in September/October. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY UPDATE
MAY 2, 2025 – It is really difficult to write anything about the economy after the passing of KC Conway, CRE, MAI this week. KC was a great guy. Brilliant mind. The last 20+ years of his career he turned his focus to being an economist. Everyone liked KC. A rare individual. He will be missed by our industry and obviously his family and friends. RIP my friend.
Very briefly, 1st Quarter GDP came in at a -0.3%. As I mentioned in my April 5th post, and last August, the stock market was forecasting a huge negative surprise for this quarter. 99%+ of us had no clue what would cause it. That doesn’t matter. The stock market just says it will happen.
My last email to KC went unanswered. I now know why. I was wondering how much of the GDP reading was attributed to the extreme import trade as companies rushed to beat the tariffs. KC never replied. I have since heard it was probably around 2.0%. So, the actual GDP would have been around +1.7%.
As the import trade will be the reverse in the 2nd Quarter and companies will have stopped ordering from overseas, this will ‘falsely’ inflate the GDP by a similar amount. Early indications are around +2%. This might fall as the economy will definitely be weakening into the Summer. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
That said, the market has forecast significant weakness at the beginning of the Fall. Things should be much clearer by then.
As an aside, the DOW Industrials never did trigger a Bear Market. They came close like last August.
That’s enough. Remember, to enjoy EVERY day of your life. We do not know when it will be our last.
Shalom,
The Mann
Very briefly, 1st Quarter GDP came in at a -0.3%. As I mentioned in my April 5th post, and last August, the stock market was forecasting a huge negative surprise for this quarter. 99%+ of us had no clue what would cause it. That doesn’t matter. The stock market just says it will happen.
My last email to KC went unanswered. I now know why. I was wondering how much of the GDP reading was attributed to the extreme import trade as companies rushed to beat the tariffs. KC never replied. I have since heard it was probably around 2.0%. So, the actual GDP would have been around +1.7%.
As the import trade will be the reverse in the 2nd Quarter and companies will have stopped ordering from overseas, this will ‘falsely’ inflate the GDP by a similar amount. Early indications are around +2%. This might fall as the economy will definitely be weakening into the Summer. But, the odds of two consecutive negative GDP quarterly readings is very low. Thus, an ‘official’ recession is unlikely at this point.
That said, the market has forecast significant weakness at the beginning of the Fall. Things should be much clearer by then.
As an aside, the DOW Industrials never did trigger a Bear Market. They came close like last August.
That’s enough. Remember, to enjoy EVERY day of your life. We do not know when it will be our last.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
APRIL 11, 2025 – The March report came in at 2.4%, at the low end of what the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 5.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.9%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase. The data is predicting a reading of 2.2%-2.4% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet.
Shalom,
The Mann
STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY UPDATE
APRIL 4, 2025 – OK, it is tough for me to stay away when a nice bear market is going on:) It is almost exactly 5 years to the last time we saw a falling knife market. Back then, I believe I was the first and only person to predict well in advance that we would see the first ever 2,000- and 3,000-point down days in the Dow 30. Today, we had another 2,000-point down day. I have constantly explained that the market predicts things 6 months into the future. So, let’s see what it has been saying about the economy.
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
Last August, the market told us that in the 1st Quarter of 2025 we would see a huge hiccup. What it would be, I had no clue. We now know it was tariffs. The Dow did not enter a bear market last August and rebounded to peak on December 4th at just over 45,000. After this week, most people wouldn’t believe it but the Dow needs to go down another 3,000 points to enter a bear market.
That said, the decline since December is telling us that the economy will be pretty weak in the 3rd Quarter of this year. That probably seems obvious to everyone by now. But, did anyone see this coming in December? Very few did.
In my July 30, 2023 post I stated the following:
“I will put this hidden little sentence out there to refer back to in 12-18 months – The chance of a recession occurring looks to be 4th Quarter 2024 into 2025.” This is an indicator that forecasts a few years out. It appears to be on track for a good call.
HOUSING – As with banks (see below), I spent the last 3 years telling you to be bullish while all of the economists were bearish. The S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) went from a low of 51.23 in June 2022 (the end of the George Mann-called Recession) to a high of 126.09 in November 2024. A 146% bull run that those wonderful economists kept people from participating in. The index has declined 26% since the all-time high. With a record number of spec new homes on the market, the market looks to be right about forecasting a weakening house market. Oh, and don’t forget to let the Housing Shortage Hoaxers know there are a ton of vacant new homes out there. It is so funny when I see them state we are short 4 or 5 or 6 million housing units. Keep drinking that kool-aid:)
BANKS – In the 2 years since the SVP implosion have you just been stunned by the hundreds and hundreds of bank failures? Oh wait, we can still count on one hand the number of failures. Maybe those broken-record bank naysayers are once again shouting out ludicrous bank failure numbers as a weakening economy upon us. I can see a few more. But, I just don’t see the Fed letting it get out of hand.
As for the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), let’s see what the economists cost you. The index bottomed at 34.52 on May 1, 2023. It peaked at 70.25 on the same day as the Homebuilders ETF in November 2024. That was a nice 103.5% advance those economists told you to stay away from. The index has declined 30%. Both the Homebuilders and Regional Banking ETF are solidly in bear markets.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has it set at about 4.2%. This leaves no room for a reduction from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is interesting as the market is giving a 50% chance of 5 rate reductions this year! Also, the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield dropped below 4%. It will probably take another few weeks for the bond and stock markets to settle down from the recent chaos. A lot to figure out as to how the worldwide tariff war will play out.
In conclusion, 2022-2024 was easy to forecast re everything being bullish. 95%+ of economists calling for a recession during that timeframe made it extra easy to be bullish. During a 2-week period from Thanksgiving to the first week in December, the market changed its forecast to a rough 2025. It is easy to look at things now and say yep this is going to be a rough year. The problem is the market forecast this 5 months ago. Just now as the public throws in the towel they are already down 15%-30%+ in their portfolios. The Smart Money thanks them for buying strongly after the Election – someone had to buy everything the Smart Money was selling:)
If you wonder if this bear market (again not for the Dow, yet, which is the sole indicator of such) is over, the public bought a record $4.7 Billion of stocks on Thursday. Who knows how much more they bought today with the market down 2200 points. The bottom will occur when the public is selling record amounts of stock. Capitulation is needed. It has always happened. It will again.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION UPDATE
MARCH 12, 2025 – The February report came in at 2.8%, below my estimate at 3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.7%. These figures are at or above the annualized rate (2.8%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain steady. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I am thinking 2.6%-2.8%.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week.
Shalom,
The Mann
PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
INTEREST RATES, BITCOIN, AND THE ECONOMY
JANUARY 11, 2025 – Regarding interest rates, the 30-year US Treasury Bond yield should easily surpass 5% (specifically, 5.18%) this year. I said over the past few months that the number of Fed Fund Rate cuts will be minimal. The market has said such and Powell is doing as the market instructs.
ECONOMY – I see that my November 8th post said no more economy updates. It provided the simple way to predict the economy 6 months into the future. With the DOW peaking in December, the economy has ZERO chance of being in a recession during the first half of this year. GDP forecasts are calling for continued growth over 2% during the first two quarters. For a recession to occur, we will need BOTH the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP readings to be negative. The only way I see that happening is for a worldwide shutdown to occur like happened 5 years (!!! time flies eh!!!) ago. Otherwise, virtually no chance of a recession in 2025. We will see what the DOW says come June.
BITCOIN – My July 3rd post said the next up move would take Bitcoin over $100,000. Bitcoin closed at $57k that day. It peaked at $108k. That was a nice ride for us crypto investors. On November 8th, I said Bitcoin would hit $100k-$190k in 2025. We already got the lower end taken care of. I think $130-$150k will be the low end of this next up wave.
I said the following in my August 2nd post:
GOLD & SILVER – The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely.
Gold peaked over $2700 (I sold my high school ring when it was at that level…ironically when my parents bought it gold was at an all-time high over $800/ounce!) and silver over $35. I am waiting for the current corrections to finish before I take long positions again.
That’s all for 2025 forecasts. Best of luck to everyone.
Shalom,
The Mann
MY LAST ECONOMY UPDATE
NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – As with my election forecast, I think this will be my final economy post. For different reasons though. I believe I have made the point clear that all you need to do to know where the economy is going is to watch the stock market. I believe that is still the Dow 30 Industrials. Albeit, I will watch over time to see if the NASDAQ 100 takes over as the better indicator. For now, I do not see that happening.
So, as I have said numerous times before, the stock market is forecasting 6 months into the future. Right now, the market is working in May 2025. With the Dow at an all-time high, we are assured that there will be no recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2025. And since it takes two consecutive negative GDP figures to get a recession, the odds of a recession next year are getting very slim.
3rd Quarter GDP came in at a super strong +2.8% (remember, anything above 0.5%-0.7% is incredible strong). 4th Quarter GDP is currently forecast to be above +2.0%.
Based on the early August downturn in the markets, we might have some kind of hiccup in the 1st Quarter of 2025. It won’t result in a negative GDP though.
So, I leave you with this last post on the economy as you now know how easy it is to forecast. The best part is you don’t need to watch a thousand indicators like ISM, M-2, PPI, CPI, Consumer Sentiment Index, yield curve blah blah blah. Economists follow all of that and, as my step-daughter says about weathermen, it must be nice to get paid to be right only 30% of the time. LOL They do all of this work and analysis only to be wrong.
For the past 2.5 years since the still not recognized Recession of early 2022, I have showed you what the stock market has said about the economy and it has been 100% correct. The vast majority of economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. I don’t try to take credit for being right the past 2.5 years. Why should I? I simply followed what the stock market said and it was the market that was right all along.
The one thing I will take credit for is I forecast that about a dozen recession predictors would fail this time around. Some of these indicators had perfect records for over 50+ years. So, I was out on a limb saying that one after another was going fail this time around. I still have yet to explain in detail how I knew that. Maybe one day. The point is not even those (still) very good indicators are worth following. The stock market does everything for you. It is that simple. As they say, KISS.
So, for FREE, you know all you need to know about future economic conditions for the remainder of your life. You do not need to waste your time reading or listening to economists and pundits or even doing your own research and analysis. Now that is a great deal for such an important forecast!
I am always here if you want to discuss anything. When someone asks me to look at something specific, I usually do it for them. As I have said, for some reason I was born to forecast the future. It is just what I love to do.
A stock market post is forthcoming.
As an aside, it has been fun to watch all of the pollsters make up excuses for being wrong. Truly pitiful to be honest. One pollster said ‘I think people….blah blah blah.’ I about jumped out of my chair yelling ‘you think’?!?!? Why in the heck didn’t you ask people why they did such and such!!!!!!! You have one job and you don’t do it? You are going to guess? It is a different era for sure. I was brought up in an era where when you said something you better have the proof to back it up. Oh well.
Thanks for the messages from millions of readers…ok dozens:)
Shalom,
The Mann