Tag Archives: PPI

MY LAST ECONOMY UPDATE

NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – As with my election forecast, I think this will be my final economy post. For different reasons though. I believe I have made the point clear that all you need to do to know where the economy is going is to watch the stock market. I believe that is still the Dow 30 Industrials. Albeit, I will watch over time to see if the NASDAQ 100 takes over as the better indicator. For now, I do not see that happening.
So, as I have said numerous times before, the stock market is forecasting 6 months into the future. Right now, the market is working in May 2025. With the Dow at an all-time high, we are assured that there will be no recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2025. And since it takes two consecutive negative GDP figures to get a recession, the odds of a recession next year are getting very slim.
3rd Quarter GDP came in at a super strong +2.8% (remember, anything above 0.5%-0.7% is incredible strong). 4th Quarter GDP is currently forecast to be above +2.0%.
Based on the early August downturn in the markets, we might have some kind of hiccup in the 1st Quarter of 2025. It won’t result in a negative GDP though.
So, I leave you with this last post on the economy as you now know how easy it is to forecast. The best part is you don’t need to watch a thousand indicators like ISM, M-2, PPI, CPI, Consumer Sentiment Index, yield curve blah blah blah. Economists follow all of that and, as my step-daughter says about weathermen, it must be nice to get paid to be right only 30% of the time. LOL They do all of this work and analysis only to be wrong.
For the past 2.5 years since the still not recognized Recession of early 2022, I have showed you what the stock market has said about the economy and it has been 100% correct. The vast majority of economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. I don’t try to take credit for being right the past 2.5 years. Why should I? I simply followed what the stock market said and it was the market that was right all along.

The one thing I will take credit for is I forecast that about a dozen recession predictors would fail this time around. Some of these indicators had perfect records for over 50+ years. So, I was out on a limb saying that one after another was going fail this time around. I still have yet to explain in detail how I knew that. Maybe one day. The point is not even those (still) very good indicators are worth following. The stock market does everything for you. It is that simple. As they say, KISS.
So, for FREE, you know all you need to know about future economic conditions for the remainder of your life. You do not need to waste your time reading or listening to economists and pundits or even doing your own research and analysis. Now that is a great deal for such an important forecast!
I am always here if you want to discuss anything. When someone asks me to look at something specific, I usually do it for them. As I have said, for some reason I was born to forecast the future. It is just what I love to do.
A stock market post is forthcoming.
As an aside, it has been fun to watch all of the pollsters make up excuses for being wrong. Truly pitiful to be honest. One pollster said ‘I think people….blah blah blah.’ I about jumped out of my chair yelling ‘you think’?!?!? Why in the heck didn’t you ask people why they did such and such!!!!!!! You have one job and you don’t do it? You are going to guess? It is a different era for sure. I was brought up in an era where when you said something you better have the proof to back it up. Oh well.
Thanks for the messages from millions of readers…ok dozens:)
Shalom,
The Mann

THE REMAINDER OF 2023 – INFLATION

JULY 19, 2023 – Looking back at my posts, 9 months ago with inflation above 8% we had a large contingent of economists predicting inflation would soar above 10% in 2023. You couldn’t be much more wrong than they were.
By January, I came out with my 6-months out forecast that the CPI would fall below 2% by the July 12th report that just occurred. As we went thru the Spring I admitted that was too aggressive and 3% was the likely figure. And 3.0% is where we ended up.
So, what am I seeing for the remainder of the year. Straight to the point – I think the current 3.0% figure is the low we will see for this year. I expect the August report will be 3.4%-3.5%. I see virtually no chance of inflation falling below 3.0% anytime by yearend. My prediction for the January 2024 report that will show what CPI was for the entire year of 2023 is in the 4.0%-4.5% range. It is WAY early, but there is a good chance we will see CPI go below 2% in the Spring of 2024. That will make Powell happy:)
I will say if there is any surprise to the above, it will be to the downside. Several indicators are forecasting disinflation, and even deflation, and thus a chance to see inflation drop. PPI is down to almost 0% and it leads CPI. Wage inflation is slowing. But it still above 4%. The significant factors of energy and transportation are down double-digit rates (!) year-over-year. Also, China is weaker than expected and their weakness gets reflected in our prices a quarter or two out. I hear those forecasting below 2% CPI by yearend. The data just seems impossible to me to have a decline below 3% occur.
As always, we shall see.
This is the first of several posts as I forecast the remainder of the year and into 2024. Banks, the economy, and housing are to follow.
Shalom,
The Mann