JANUARY 11, 2025 – Regarding interest rates, the 30-year US Treasury Bond yield should easily surpass 5% (specifically, 5.18%) this year. I said over the past few months that the number of Fed Fund Rate cuts will be minimal. The market has said such and Powell is doing as the market instructs.
ECONOMY – I see that my November 8th post said no more economy updates. It provided the simple way to predict the economy 6 months into the future. With the DOW peaking in December, the economy has ZERO chance of being in a recession during the first half of this year. GDP forecasts are calling for continued growth over 2% during the first two quarters. For a recession to occur, we will need BOTH the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP readings to be negative. The only way I see that happening is for a worldwide shutdown to occur like happened 5 years (!!! time flies eh!!!) ago. Otherwise, virtually no chance of a recession in 2025. We will see what the DOW says come June.
BITCOIN – My July 3rd post said the next up move would take Bitcoin over $100,000. Bitcoin closed at $57k that day. It peaked at $108k. That was a nice ride for us crypto investors. On November 8th, I said Bitcoin would hit $100k-$190k in 2025. We already got the lower end taken care of. I think $130-$150k will be the low end of this next up wave.
I said the following in my August 2nd post:
GOLD & SILVER – The gold target is still $2500-$2600. Silver looks extremely good with a move to the $34-$40 range likely.
Gold peaked over $2700 (I sold my high school ring when it was at that level…ironically when my parents bought it gold was at an all-time high over $800/ounce!) and silver over $35. I am waiting for the current corrections to finish before I take long positions again.
That’s all for 2025 forecasts. Best of luck to everyone.
Shalom,
The Mann