NOVEMBER 12, 2024 – This is a nice summary of how bad the pollsters were. And facts showing how they are extremely biased towards the Democrats. As I said in my final post about the election, you are simply not facing reality if you think political polls aren’t 100%+ biased in favor of the Dems. We should RIP these pollsters. But, we won’t. They are owned by the Fake News Media and that will bring them back for the lemming followers.
Shalom,
The Mann
https://capitalresearch.org/article/agents-of-influence-the-pitiful-presidential-pollsters/
All posts by George Mann
STOCK MARKET UPDATE
NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – IN 2023, with the Dow around 34,000, I was the only person I could find predicting 40,000 in 2024. In May 2024, I posted the following:
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TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
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The Dow hit a low of 38,499 on August 5th. Right in the target range forecast above. Today the Dow has crossed 44,000 for the first time. Right around the targets identified over 6 months ago. I am pleasantly surprised how many analysts now (try to) use the Elliott Wave Theory. 44 years ago probably only a handful of people in the world used it. I have relied on it my whole adult life. The above shows it works.
With Trump winning, I will be watching to see if this Bull Market can be extended beyond the ranges forecast above. I won’t get into that right now. Maybe I will do that the last week of December when I make my various 2025 forecasts.
I will leave you with a forecast that Bitcoin will go to $100,000-$190,000 in 2025. A wide range yes. But, this is a volatile asset with a relatively short period of historical data and trends to analyze. I am heavily invested in it and silver which should go above $40.
Enjoy the Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
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TARGET 1 – The current rally peaks out around 40,522. This is followed by a decline to the 37,008-38,350 range. Then a final rally to the 42,872-45,640 range with possible targets within the range being 44,214 and 44,298.
TARGET 2 – The current rally peaks out around 41,906. This is followed by a decline to the 38,392-39,734 range. Then a final rally to the 44,256-47,819 range with possible targets within the range being 44,256 and 45,598.
Obviously, it would be best to round the numbers and use general ranges. Based on the above, I would say the current rally should take us above 40,000 and up to 42,000 at the high end. A small decline should end in the 37,000 to 39,000 range. And the last big move in this Bull Market should end between 43,000 and 47,000.
————————————————————
The Dow hit a low of 38,499 on August 5th. Right in the target range forecast above. Today the Dow has crossed 44,000 for the first time. Right around the targets identified over 6 months ago. I am pleasantly surprised how many analysts now (try to) use the Elliott Wave Theory. 44 years ago probably only a handful of people in the world used it. I have relied on it my whole adult life. The above shows it works.
With Trump winning, I will be watching to see if this Bull Market can be extended beyond the ranges forecast above. I won’t get into that right now. Maybe I will do that the last week of December when I make my various 2025 forecasts.
I will leave you with a forecast that Bitcoin will go to $100,000-$190,000 in 2025. A wide range yes. But, this is a volatile asset with a relatively short period of historical data and trends to analyze. I am heavily invested in it and silver which should go above $40.
Enjoy the Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
MY LAST ECONOMY UPDATE
NOVEMBER 8, 2024 – As with my election forecast, I think this will be my final economy post. For different reasons though. I believe I have made the point clear that all you need to do to know where the economy is going is to watch the stock market. I believe that is still the Dow 30 Industrials. Albeit, I will watch over time to see if the NASDAQ 100 takes over as the better indicator. For now, I do not see that happening.
So, as I have said numerous times before, the stock market is forecasting 6 months into the future. Right now, the market is working in May 2025. With the Dow at an all-time high, we are assured that there will be no recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2025. And since it takes two consecutive negative GDP figures to get a recession, the odds of a recession next year are getting very slim.
3rd Quarter GDP came in at a super strong +2.8% (remember, anything above 0.5%-0.7% is incredible strong). 4th Quarter GDP is currently forecast to be above +2.0%.
Based on the early August downturn in the markets, we might have some kind of hiccup in the 1st Quarter of 2025. It won’t result in a negative GDP though.
So, I leave you with this last post on the economy as you now know how easy it is to forecast. The best part is you don’t need to watch a thousand indicators like ISM, M-2, PPI, CPI, Consumer Sentiment Index, yield curve blah blah blah. Economists follow all of that and, as my step-daughter says about weathermen, it must be nice to get paid to be right only 30% of the time. LOL They do all of this work and analysis only to be wrong.
For the past 2.5 years since the still not recognized Recession of early 2022, I have showed you what the stock market has said about the economy and it has been 100% correct. The vast majority of economists and pundits have been 100% wrong. I don’t try to take credit for being right the past 2.5 years. Why should I? I simply followed what the stock market said and it was the market that was right all along.
The one thing I will take credit for is I forecast that about a dozen recession predictors would fail this time around. Some of these indicators had perfect records for over 50+ years. So, I was out on a limb saying that one after another was going fail this time around. I still have yet to explain in detail how I knew that. Maybe one day. The point is not even those (still) very good indicators are worth following. The stock market does everything for you. It is that simple. As they say, KISS.
So, for FREE, you know all you need to know about future economic conditions for the remainder of your life. You do not need to waste your time reading or listening to economists and pundits or even doing your own research and analysis. Now that is a great deal for such an important forecast!
I am always here if you want to discuss anything. When someone asks me to look at something specific, I usually do it for them. As I have said, for some reason I was born to forecast the future. It is just what I love to do.
A stock market post is forthcoming.
As an aside, it has been fun to watch all of the pollsters make up excuses for being wrong. Truly pitiful to be honest. One pollster said ‘I think people….blah blah blah.’ I about jumped out of my chair yelling ‘you think’?!?!? Why in the heck didn’t you ask people why they did such and such!!!!!!! You have one job and you don’t do it? You are going to guess? It is a different era for sure. I was brought up in an era where when you said something you better have the proof to back it up. Oh well.
Thanks for the messages from millions of readers…ok dozens:)
Shalom,
The Mann
A POST-MORTEM OF MY ELECTION ANALYSIS
NOVEMBER 6, 2024 – This is not a gloat post for the Trump side. All along, I have tried to present the facts and note where I think there is a gray area. That is basically what I do when explaining anything I do. So, here goes a summary of what we have learned over the past 3 months.
This was my final forecast:
“I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.” Although AZ, MI, and NV still have not been called, they all look like they will go to Trump. That will give him 312 electoral votes. I will take this perfect count and retire from forecasting elections:)
WHAT I GOT WRONG – Michigan and not thinking the results would be known Election Night. As I noted in my final analysis, Michigan had conflicting indicators. I switched to Harris and probably shouldn’t have. The States greatly improved their vote counting. That is a good thing to be wrong about.
SUMMARY – My entire adult life I have told people to do their own analysis and make their own decisions when it comes to investing or trading in stocks, commodities, real estate, et al.
Never listen to the talking heads like Jim Cramer or Goldman Sachs or anyone. I have never been wrong betting against what the great Goldman Sachs has forecast. They just get paid alot more than me:)
I worked extremely hard over the past 3 months on my election analysis. It was exhausting. I did all I could to account for the poll margins of errors, for the now validated 3 times argument that Republicans get underrepresented in the polls, the thought that those Republicans not answering pollsters would vote against Trump, illegal immigrant votes, et al. In the end, it looks like all that hard work got it exactly right. As I get paid the big bucks to provide my analyses, I think I will go out on this forecast. The amount of work was enormous. (Thanks to everyone that has sent me thanks for me sharing my analyses. I appreciate that. This is a labor of love for sure.) Maybe a rich person will pay me millions to provide my analyses privately to him/her:) Hopefully, I showed that you can do your own research and do better than the pundits and the economists and the analysts that get paid the big bucks. You can do it!
The one blunt thing I will say is that if you don’t accept as a FACT that the pollsters are equal to the Fake News Media in being owned by the Democrats, you are just not facing reality. It is funny to hear Democrats curse the pollsters this morning when it was them that told the pollsters to make it look like Harris was winning! Hypocrites and sore losers.
HOUSE – This won’t be settled for days or a week as expected.
I still think neither party will win by more than 3 seats. The word over night was the Dems were making some surprised pickups and might win the House. There was limited data for me to analyze so no way could I forecast a specific result. I could only conclude a plus or minus 3 seat difference for each party. We shall see how it ends up.
SENATE – All along, I said this was a 100% certainty that the GOP would get the 51-seat majority. I honestly did not try to make a specific count. I was simply focused on one of the parties getting to 51. The GOP already has 52 and could get up to 55. The high end might make it such that in 2026 the GOP will be certain to maintain the Senate. Please don’t double-dog dare me to make a forecast about that election lol
Hopefully, we will now eradicate DIE, ESG, the climate change hoax, men playing in women’s sports and being in their locker rooms, anything woke, et al. Americans spoke loud and clear about their disapproval of all that junk.
Lastly, Viva Fossil Fuels!!!
Shalom,
The Mann
FINAL ELECTION ANALYSIS
NOVEMBER 4, 2024 – Here is my final analysis and call. Save yourself some time and don’t watch all the BS live analyses on Tuesday evening. Only ONE result will be known Tuesday night – the GOP will win the Senate 51-49. The Montana race is all you need to watch.
HOUSE – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night. I think the GOP wins barely. But, I would be surprised to see either party win by more than 3 seats.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. A recent Iowa poll showing Harris in the lead is simply out to lunch. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Of the 7 states, this one is closest to a sure thing. Trump should win by about 2%. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – A baffling state re the polls. They show a dead heat.
In the past two elections, the polls underestimated Trump’s vote by an amazing 6%. The actual winning margin in both elections was 0.7%. I don’t see Trump winning by 6%. But, given how far off the polls have been in both Trump elections, I have to give this one to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – A mixture of signals. Polls are essentially a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 2-4 points. However, the polls have trended towards Harris in past few weeks. There is support for either candidate winning. I am going with a gut call and changing my forecast to Harris. Harris 241 Trump 240
NV – The polls for this state are as mixed up as they are for Michigan. This is another state I am going to switch my pick and give it to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 246
NC – Simple pick – Trump. He leads in the polls and led in the polls in the past two elections. Actual results were more in his favor than the polls showed. Like Arizona, pretty much a lock. Harris 241 Trump 262.
GA – The polls have been accurate in the past two elections.
The polls seem to have moved slightly towards Harris in the past week or two. However, with Trump up by about 1.5%, I will go with Trump. Harris 241 Trump 278
PA – Trump is up barely. The polls underestimated the Trump vote by about 1%-3% in the past two elections. Given that and 4 of the 5 November polls favoring Trump by 1% (Other is a tie), I will give this one to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 297
RealClearPolitics has Trump at 287-251.
Of the above, the one prediction that I think has the best chance of being wrong is Michigan. I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.
As I always say, we shall see……
Most importantly, please vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
HOUSE – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night. I think the GOP wins barely. But, I would be surprised to see either party win by more than 3 seats.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. A recent Iowa poll showing Harris in the lead is simply out to lunch. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Of the 7 states, this one is closest to a sure thing. Trump should win by about 2%. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – A baffling state re the polls. They show a dead heat.
In the past two elections, the polls underestimated Trump’s vote by an amazing 6%. The actual winning margin in both elections was 0.7%. I don’t see Trump winning by 6%. But, given how far off the polls have been in both Trump elections, I have to give this one to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – A mixture of signals. Polls are essentially a dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 2-4 points. However, the polls have trended towards Harris in past few weeks. There is support for either candidate winning. I am going with a gut call and changing my forecast to Harris. Harris 241 Trump 240
NV – The polls for this state are as mixed up as they are for Michigan. This is another state I am going to switch my pick and give it to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 246
NC – Simple pick – Trump. He leads in the polls and led in the polls in the past two elections. Actual results were more in his favor than the polls showed. Like Arizona, pretty much a lock. Harris 241 Trump 262.
GA – The polls have been accurate in the past two elections.
The polls seem to have moved slightly towards Harris in the past week or two. However, with Trump up by about 1.5%, I will go with Trump. Harris 241 Trump 278
PA – Trump is up barely. The polls underestimated the Trump vote by about 1%-3% in the past two elections. Given that and 4 of the 5 November polls favoring Trump by 1% (Other is a tie), I will give this one to Trump. Harris 241 Trump 297
RealClearPolitics has Trump at 287-251.
Of the above, the one prediction that I think has the best chance of being wrong is Michigan. I can see Trump winning it and the election 312-226. That is what I have been predicting for the past month or more.
As I always say, we shall see……
Most importantly, please vote!
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 30, 2024 – In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. Michigan is a total guess – will probably be settled by who produces the most fake ballots overnight:)
SUMMARY OF CHANGES SINCE LAST POST – Nothing for the Senate and House. Arizona and Georgia are close to becoming sure locks for Trump. I will make a final call on Monday or Election Day. As of today, I think this is solidly in Trump’s favor. As usual, the polling errors, illegal ballots, and GOP voters that won’t answer pollster questions, will determine the outcome.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 6%-7% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 2.2-2.5 points. A small margin of error for the polls. This one is becoming a lock for Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. Harris has not won any of the most recent 8 polls. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.5 points. The last 6 polls are 1 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. This continues to go to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 1.0 points versus 0.7-0.8 points 5 days ago. Of the last 11 polls, it is 2 for Harris, 6 for Trump, and 3 Ties. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.4-2.4 points. Like Arizona, this is about a sure thing for Trump now. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 297 if a winner has to be picked for every state. They flipped Michigan back to Harris.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
SUMMARY OF CHANGES SINCE LAST POST – Nothing for the Senate and House. Arizona and Georgia are close to becoming sure locks for Trump. I will make a final call on Monday or Election Day. As of today, I think this is solidly in Trump’s favor. As usual, the polling errors, illegal ballots, and GOP voters that won’t answer pollster questions, will determine the outcome.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 6%-7% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 2.2-2.5 points. A small margin of error for the polls. This one is becoming a lock for Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. Harris has not won any of the most recent 8 polls. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Dead heat. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.5 points. The last 6 polls are 1 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. This continues to go to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 1.0 points versus 0.7-0.8 points 5 days ago. Of the last 11 polls, it is 2 for Harris, 6 for Trump, and 3 Ties. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.4-2.4 points. Like Arizona, this is about a sure thing for Trump now. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 297 if a winner has to be picked for every state. They flipped Michigan back to Harris.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
AWESOME NEWS FOR PLANTS CONTINUES !!!!!!!!
OCTOBER 28, 2024 – As I have posted here before, the climate change hoaxers just need to admit defeat. They are simply making junk up to make money off the masses. It is repulsive. Thankfully the world is ignoring them and CO2 concentration continue to surge. Contrary to the WMO propaganda below, this trend will likely save our species as plants will be in more abundance and provide the food necessary to feed a world of over 8 billion people. Evil people want carbon neutrality so as to reduce plants, and thus food, and have their Malthusian plan of a world of less than 1 billion people come true. Sick, sick people. The following is from Axios. Be sure to be playing your violin as you read this:) I will be sending cheese to WMO to have with their whine:)
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Global carbon dioxide concentrations reached record levels in 2023, with a surge of 11.4% during the past two decades alone, a new UN report finds.
Why it matters: While countries are deploying renewable energy sources at a quickening pace, it hasn’t been enough to halt or reverse emissions growth.
The intrigue: El Niño years, such as 2023, tend to bring steeper increases in greenhouse gas levels because of drought in the tropics that reduces forests’ ability to take in CO2.
• There are indications that a continued surge in CO2 concentrations occurred into 2024, though the new report does not cover those early readings.
Zoom out: The last time the world saw CO2 concentrations similar to today’s was 3 to 5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2°C to 3°C (3.6°F to 5.4°F) warmer than average and sea levels were up to 65 feet higher than they are now.
What they’re saying: “Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo in a statement.
• Ko Barrett, the WMO’s No. 2 official, warned of a “potential vicious circle,” in which climate change pushes ecosystems from net absorbers of CO2 into contributors of the global warming agent.
• “These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human
=============================
Global carbon dioxide concentrations reached record levels in 2023, with a surge of 11.4% during the past two decades alone, a new UN report finds.
Why it matters: While countries are deploying renewable energy sources at a quickening pace, it hasn’t been enough to halt or reverse emissions growth.
The intrigue: El Niño years, such as 2023, tend to bring steeper increases in greenhouse gas levels because of drought in the tropics that reduces forests’ ability to take in CO2.
• There are indications that a continued surge in CO2 concentrations occurred into 2024, though the new report does not cover those early readings.
Zoom out: The last time the world saw CO2 concentrations similar to today’s was 3 to 5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2°C to 3°C (3.6°F to 5.4°F) warmer than average and sea levels were up to 65 feet higher than they are now.
What they’re saying: “Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo in a statement.
• Ko Barrett, the WMO’s No. 2 official, warned of a “potential vicious circle,” in which climate change pushes ecosystems from net absorbers of CO2 into contributors of the global warming agent.
• “These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 26, 2024 – For some perspective on how Trump is doing in the polls versus the past two elections, RealClearPolitics provides such data for this same date in 2020 and 2016. Trump is doing better today in all of the battleground states, except Georgia. Following is how much better he is doing in comparison to 2020 and 2016:
National – 5.5%-7.9%
Wisconsin – 5.7%-6.2%
Pennsylvania – 4.9%-5.4%
Michigan – 9.2%-9.7%
Arizona – 3.0%-3.7%
Nevada – 2.7%-5.9%
North Carolina – 2.0%-3.5%
Georgia – -1.1% to +1.8%
Except for Georgia, those are huge improvements over both of the prior elections.
OCTOBER 25, 2024 – Best to update this frequently at this point. In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 7%-8% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 42 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 9 seats. Of the 42 toss-up seats, 23 are incumbent Democrats and 18 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House by a few votes. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate. It is doubtful we will know the final results for many days or a week after Election Night.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 1.5-1.6 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.2-0.3 points. Six of the last 9 polls are Ties. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Trump is up by 0.2-0.4 points. The last 4 polls have been very divergent with Harris up by 3.5 points and Trump up by 2.5 points. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.1-0.7 points. The last 6 polls are 2 for Harris, 2 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. For now, this one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 0.7-0.8 points. Of the last 8 polls, it is 3 for Harris, 4 for Trump, and 1 Tie. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 2.0-2.2 points. Nine of 10 8 October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are solidly for Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.6-0.7 points. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 312 if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
ELECTION UPDATE
OCTOBER 22, 2024 – Best to update this frequently at this point. In general, most of the toss-up states have been trending towards Trump. A complete reversal from when Biden dropped out.
SENATE – No Change – This is as near to being 100% certain as you get. The GOP will control the Senate 51-49. Dems finally realize this is the only contest that matters. But, it looks like they have zero chance of reversing Sheehy’s 7%-8% lead.
HOUSE – No Change – 32 toss-up races will determine the winner. The GOP is up by about 11 seats. Of the 32 toss-up seats, 19 are incumbent Democrats and 13 are incumbent Republicans. If every incumbent wins, the GOP controls the House. With the Democrats having more seats to possibly lose, the odds favor the GOP to win the House. One thing that is very close to certain is the Democrats have almost zero chance of controlling the House, POTUS, and Senate.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE – There are 43 states (plus territories and DC) that are set in stone. This includes CO and NM. The count is 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump. Let’s get to the 7 tossup states.
AZ – Trump is up by 1.8-2.0 points. A small margin of error for the polls. Goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 230
WI – Trump is up by 0.4 points. Of the last 7 polls, Trump leads in 2, Harris in 1, and 4 are Ties. This is one state where the polls have been horrible. They have underestimated Trump’s vote by a huge 5%-6%!!!. Thus, this one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 240
MI – Trump is up by 1.2-1.3 points. The last 8 polls have Trump ahead (one to four points) or show a Tie. The polls have underestimated Trump’s vote by about 1.5%-3.0%. This one goes to Trump. Harris 226 Trump 255
NV – Trump is up by 0.3-0.9 points. The last 6 polls are 2 for Harris, 2 for Trump, and 2 Ties. The polls were spot on in 2020 and way underestimated the Dem vote in 2016. For now, this one goes to Harris. Harris 232 Trump 255
NC – Trump is up by 0.3-0.4 points. Of the last 7 polls, it is 3 for Harris, 3 for Trump, and 1 Tie. Let’s go to poll accuracy to make a call….they underestimated the Trump vote by 1%-3% and Trump won the state both times. We will give it to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 271. That, of course, puts Trump over the top.
GA – Trump is up by 1.7-2.5 points. All 8 October polls have Trump up by one to six points. The polls were spot on in 2016 but way underestimated the Dem vote in 2020. The polls are leaning towards Trump. But, the 2020 error rate offsets that to a point. Tough call. Trump’s lead is getting insurmountable. For the first time, I will give this one to Trump. Harris 232 Trump 287
PA – Trump is up by 0.8-1.0 points. The last 3 polls all have Trump up by 3 points. It’s too early to call, but this one is starting to pull well into Trump’s favor. The polls way underestimated the Trump vote in 2016. But, they were spot on in 2020. I will leave it as a toss-up for now. Harris 232 Trump 287
Yes, this will be your typical tight race. And results probably won’t be known for a few days after the election. Lots of lawsuits will be filed:)
But, to me, it is looking like Trump will get 287 or 306. RealClearPolitics has Trump at 312 (up from 302 a week ago) if a winner has to be picked for every state.
As you can see above, the problem with forecasting a winner is the polls that essentially provide the only data to rely on are prone to errors larger than the results of the polls. At least my analysis above tries to account for the alleged (based on stats, it appears to be valid) concern that GOP voters are understated because many do not trust the pollsters and won’t respond to them.
Please remember to ignore national polls. Harris will win the popular vote simply because of California and New York. I think if those 2 states are excluded, Trump will win the popular vote in the other 48 states. This is exactly why the Electoral College was invented by our Founding Fathers. How disgruntled would voters in 48 states become if California and New York solely dictated who our President would be? Thank God they don’t and hopefully never will!
Shalom,
The Mann
EUROPEAN BANK REGULATORS GET IT
OCTOBER 17, 2024 – Fifteen years ago, I was hopeful that American bank regulators would research the concept of Mortgage Lending Value (MLV) and make lenders adopt it for real estate loans. Of course, there was little chance as us Americans love booms and busts (ok, some don’t like this part of the cycle). Lenders live off of the fees they generate. Lots of money to be made when asset prices skyrocket. And, as the movie The Big Short showed, lots of money to be made when asset prices crash.
First the Germans (around the 1890’s), and now all of Europe, decided the crazy cycle of boom and bust was not ideal for its citizens. The following excerpts are from the 2025 European Valuation Standards (EVS). Maybe one day America will also decide to rid itself of the concept of Market Price (we do not have Market Value in USA real estate appraisals).
Shalom,
The Mann
=======================================
At least as far as the valuation of bank collateral is concerned, the European authorities are no longer satisfied with a stand-alone ‘Market Value’ that they correctly view as a ‘spot value’ at the date of valuation. They want to ‘secure the future’ by excluding expected price increases and internalising the potential for future lower market prices/values.
———–
The CRR lays down that in valuation according to ‘prudently conservative valuation criteria’, “the value excludes
expectations on price increases”. EVS 2025’s EVGN 2 addresses the issues arising from this in the contexts of:
• Valuation under the income approach.
• Using the direct capitalisation model.
• Valuations carried out by means of a DCF model.
• Treatment of rental increases.
• And the developer’s profit in the residual method of valuation.
————
The second CRR requirement for appraisal according to ‘prudently conservative valuation criteria’ is that
“the value is adjusted to take into account the potential for the current Market Value to be significantly above
the value that would be sustainable over the life of the loan”.
▶ HERE EVGN 2 HIGHLIGHTS ISSUES OF:
• Assessing the sustainability of the value over the life of the loan.
• The impact of oversupply of a particular type of property on prices and value.
• The impact on future value of declining population of a given locality and
other negative factors changing the surroundings of the real estate.
First the Germans (around the 1890’s), and now all of Europe, decided the crazy cycle of boom and bust was not ideal for its citizens. The following excerpts are from the 2025 European Valuation Standards (EVS). Maybe one day America will also decide to rid itself of the concept of Market Price (we do not have Market Value in USA real estate appraisals).
Shalom,
The Mann
=======================================
At least as far as the valuation of bank collateral is concerned, the European authorities are no longer satisfied with a stand-alone ‘Market Value’ that they correctly view as a ‘spot value’ at the date of valuation. They want to ‘secure the future’ by excluding expected price increases and internalising the potential for future lower market prices/values.
———–
The CRR lays down that in valuation according to ‘prudently conservative valuation criteria’, “the value excludes
expectations on price increases”. EVS 2025’s EVGN 2 addresses the issues arising from this in the contexts of:
• Valuation under the income approach.
• Using the direct capitalisation model.
• Valuations carried out by means of a DCF model.
• Treatment of rental increases.
• And the developer’s profit in the residual method of valuation.
————
The second CRR requirement for appraisal according to ‘prudently conservative valuation criteria’ is that
“the value is adjusted to take into account the potential for the current Market Value to be significantly above
the value that would be sustainable over the life of the loan”.
▶ HERE EVGN 2 HIGHLIGHTS ISSUES OF:
• Assessing the sustainability of the value over the life of the loan.
• The impact of oversupply of a particular type of property on prices and value.
• The impact on future value of declining population of a given locality and
other negative factors changing the surroundings of the real estate.