Tag Archives: Dow

LAST UPDATE ON REAL ESTATE AND STOCK MARKETS FOR AWHILE

MAY 29, 2020 – We have come a long way since the stock market bottomed on March 23rd and the Fed released an infinite amount of liquidity.  For 6+ weeks, the stock market traded in a narrow 10% range.  Then this week it finally broke above 25,000 on the DOW and has achieved the higher end of the rally targets.

Public sentiment has gone from the world ending in late March to bullish extremes that exceed the February all-time highs.  As I noted in March, the rally would wipe away all fears and it has.  Even Millennials have been turned on to day trading.  Gamblers with no sports to bet on but horse racing have also turned to day trading.  Robinhood is trending as they say nowadays.  Heck, even yours truly opened a Robinhood account to buy bitcoin with.  In a matter of minutes I owned some bitcoin.  Amazing how easy it is nowadays to open an account an invest.  Er, gamble.

I am glad I am on the sidelines still.  Corporate earnings will continue to decline the rest of this year.  Economic recovery will be in the shape of a Verizon swoosh that will take 2-3 years to see us get back to within say 20% of the prior peak.  But, with QE Infinity, asset prices might continue higher.

In the major 1973-1974 Bear Market, stocks dropped 45% while corporate earnings went up.  Regardless of what the Fake News Media tells the masses, there is no relationship between stock prices and underlying corporate earnings.  So, there is a chance this time around while earnings fall, stock prices may continue higher.  We shall see.  I am content holding my dividend stocks that are yielding 5%-8%.  If the prices go up, great.

As for real estate, it will be in to next year before we have an ample number of transactions to analyze.  Price discovery was made in April.  The market is just waiting for sellers to face reality and buyers to realize they won’t be getting major steals.  There is already some evidence that the price declines have begun to shrink.  As we move along the Verizon swoosh, we get closer and closer to recovery and thus prices slowly rise.

Also, there is talk that investors seeking any kind of yield in a zero percent interest rate environment will see that real estate cap rates of 4% and 5% and 6% and higher are exceptional.  There is literally TRILLIONS of dollars on the sideline waiting to be invested.  If some of it pours into real estate, cap rates will decline and prices increase.

The last 7 months of this year will be interesting to watch.

One last thought is in regard to what the stock market is forecasting.  As it projects out 6 months into the future, what has it told us.  First, something MAJOR is to occur around September.  What will that be is the question we should be focused on.  Possibilities I can think of…..the USA and IRAN get into a military conflict…..VP Biden drops out of the race due to a scandal or there being a true mental health issue (I am not saying there is one…..brainstorming things that would be a major shock is all)….or Trump dropping out for any reason (health or political).  We shall see what happens at the end of the Summer.

Also, six months out puts us past the November Election and the market is apparently happy as can be with the result of that event.  A Trump victory is the most obvious explanation for the stock market rising over the past 2 months.  If Trump loses, the market appears to be saying the two houses of government will remain split between the parties and thus gridlock will remain.  The stock market does not seem to give any chance to the Dems sweeping everything.

As a reminder, the DOW figure to watch is 23,377.  A close above that on October 31st suggests Trump wins.  Below that, he loses.  In February, when we were above 29,000 this figure didn’t seem pertinent.  Then we got down to 18,100 or such and again this figure was out of range.  But, now it has been in play constantly.  We are 5 months away from decision time.  A LOT will happen in that time.

I will close with my newest pet peeve:)  I must have a million of them by now, lol.  I am so, so sick of companies airing commercials about how great they are for helping people out during this crisis.  People hate people that brag about themselves.  Companies need to STFU and just give back as they can and they will get recognition from those that receive their generosity and word-of-mouth will take care of the rest.  But, we’re Amazon and we are so great for giving this amount and we’re Apple and blah blah blah.  Save the money you spend on commercials patting yourselves on the back and spend it on the people and entities that need help.

On the subject of commercials.  Do people actually buy something because they see a commercial?  I have never done that.  Do people actually click ads that pop up on a website?  I have never done that!  In fact, I cannot remember ever seeing an ad on Amazon or Facebook or Youtube or Dropbox or anything.  I have used every website for free for 20+ years now and never once clicked an ad or really I cannot even recall seeing an ad.  I have always wondered how Facebook and Twitter and YouTube make money.  Oh well, label me clueless:)

ADD JUNE 4 – Oh gaws, does every company and organization need to put out a public memo saying they aren’t into racism.  Geez, I didn’t know that.  I was certain that Apple and others have in their Personnel Handbook that that are into being racist.  This news is truly shocking to me.  I am so glad they made this announcement.  Time to go to the porcelain altar.  What a bunch of loser lemmings.

Oh, one other item.  Please do not listen to the Fake News Media and politicians that will be saying this Fall and Winter that the increase in COVID-19 cases is because we opened too early.  When you hear such, just say BS!  Those increases will surely happen.  Our re-opening (I am so happy to be in South Carolina – we were last to close and first to open….you don’t mess with our liberties in the South!) is well planned and needed and will not be the cause of the second wave …or possibly a third wave next Spring.  But, I guarantee the Fake News Media and let’s just say it out loud, the Dems, will blame any increases on reopening too early.  Of course, they won’t be talking about the majority of cases now and then being in their jurisdictions.

I would place a bet that in 5 or 10 years there will be evidence that more people will have died from the lockdown than from the virus itself.  The damage to the income and wealth generation of Gen Y will far exceed what the virus cost us.  Poor Millennials/Gen Y, they just weren’t meant to have a good existence on this rock.  But, when you are the first years of The Dark Ages II, you know you will have a brutal time of it.  But, not near as bad as generations 100 and 200 years from now.

I will talk about real estate and stocks down the road as things perk up.  We are just past the period of chaos.  Now we live out the long, slow recovery.  Which can still have some downside here and there in various sectors and markets.  Not everyone is going to be seeing improvement.

Thanks again to everyone that is sharing information with me.  I really appreciate it.  It has been very beneficial over the past 3 months for sure.

Please stay safe.  Over 330 million Americans have NOT got COVID-19!  Quoting the title of one of my favorite rock songs by Halestorm, Here’s To Us!

The Mann

STOCK MARKET UPDATE

MAY 10 – Hopefully everyone had a great Mother’s Day and is staying safe and well.

It’s been awhile since I talked about the stock market.  For over a month now the DOW has been in about a 2000 point range.  Quite a change from days in March where it was up or down 2000 points.  All of this back and forth and the market still hasn’t been able to get up to the 25,100 target.

As I mentioned the last time I talked about stocks, we are essentially in a stalemate.  The market should be declining to the 13,000-15,000 range.  However, the Fed is pumping trillions into the system and this is offsetting the selling.  The experts I listen to are taking the stance I am taking – stand aside and wait for a break in one direction or another to occur.

If you have had read my blog and white papers over the past decade, you know I harp on price and value being two very different things.  In real estate, prices rarely reflect the current value of the underlying asset.  Albeit market participants and appraisers believe sale prices are a reflection of market value.  They aren’t.

I bring this up because we may be encountering a historical disconnect between the value of companies and the price of their stock.  A company that was worth $100 a share before the virus hit might now be worth $80 (value is extremely slow to change for large corporations, so a 20% decline is beyond extreme).  However, if the trillions being pumped into the system goes into the stock market in some amount, then that stock that may have went from a high of $150 down to $75 in March and may now be $125.  And might go even higher.

Money is pouring in regardless of what the underlying asset is worth.  Re-inflating prices is what the Fed did starting 12 years ago and it worked for most asset classes.  They are doing all they can to make this happen again.  One day the house of cards will crumble and it won’t be pretty.  They might be able to avoid the end game this time, but I don’t think they will the next time things fall apart.

Right now the World’s Largest Casino (stocks, bonds, currencies) is open and gamblers are taking their position on how things will play out over the next 6-24 months.  But, these are simply gamblers.  True investors are still uncertain of the future and are standing aside.  There are no new mergers.  No new commercial real estate transactions.  When Sam Zell says he is still uncertain of how this will play out and is doing nothing, that speaks volumes.

As they say, better safe than sorry.  Capital preservation is key.  Don’t jump into the game too early.  Be patient.  It is ok to miss the exact bottom and wait for the new trend to start.

As a side note, remember that this is not a liquidity crisis.  That has been solved by Central Banks worldwide.  This is a SOLVENCY issue.  Companies will go bankrupt over the remainder of the year because they have too much debt.  It is that simple.  This will also apply to individuals and real estate owners.  Too much debt and you are likely to go under.  As they say, cash is king.  It will be once again during this downturn.

And a side note to the side note….The bond market is pricing in a 28% chance of the Fed Fund Rate going negative!  Some indicators suggest a drop to -2.0%!!!  Everyone says negative interest rates are not coming to America.  Even Fed presidents say that.  The only problem is the Fed FOLLOWS the bond market.  The bond market will dictate whether America goes to negative interest rates.  Right now it is just starting to head in that direction.  There will be more to discuss as this unfolds going forward.

Unemployment came in at 14.7% albeit the U-6 (whatever that is exactly) suggests we will see 23%+ next month.  The analyst I mentioned that forecast 16.5% was a bit high.  For historical perspective, we went from unemployment rates at 50 year lows to 90 year highs in a month or two.  Just insane, eh.

It’s  a big week for Bitcoin as the 4-year ‘halving’ occurs.  Since I suggested to my friends a month ago to buy some it has gone up 50%.  However, the expectation is still a 10x move from here by the end of 2021.  It seems like everyone is aware of the halving and past events and have been buying in advance.  Since past history has shown a 10% to 30% decline in price right after the halving, that would surely shock the newbies to Bitcoin.  The public usually gets on board when it is too late and then dumps when things turn against them.  I will be watching for some kind of correction between now and the end of June.  If it occurs, I will hop on board and hope the 10x unfolds as predicted.

Brent Crude is back over $30 a barrel.  Many oil stocks, e.g. Exxon, are up over 50% from their lows.  The damage will last at least another year or two.  But, oil and gas are not going away regardless of what the tree huggers wish and say.  The more electric vehicles they make the more fossil fuel using power plants get built.  Plus, 95%+ of vehicles will run on gas for many decades into the future.  It is unlikely Millennials will live to see a serious decline in the use of oil and natural gas.  There simply are no viable alternatives.

The Fake News Media likes to make the masses think oil and gas are on their way out.  They do the same with meat.  They even talked people in to creating fake meat.  Fake meat means it is NOT meat!  Fake meat is an oxymoron!  But, more importantly, projections call for meat consumption to be 70 percent higher in 2050 than it was in 2010.  PETA won’t tell you that though:)

I only bring the above items up because it all goes back to my constant reminder – EDUCATE YOURSELF!  I think we can switch up an old joke – How can you tell if a broadcaster is lying – s/he is moving his/her lips:)

Educate yourself and then make your own decision.  Think for yourself.  You will be much better off in life.

Stay safe.

The Mann

ENDING MARCH AND INTO APRIL WE GO

UPDATE APRIL 3 (EVENING) – Thankfully, a calmer week in the books.  Nothing has changed regarding my market forecasts.

I did want to congratulate Morgan Stanley on correctly forecasting the 700,000 job losses that was reported this morning.  That was an extremely difficult forecast to make and to nail it is impressive.

Oil was up 40% in two days.  We will let it play out a bit more to see if a final low is in place or not.

It is becoming apparent that there will be some major changes in our world going forward.  Hopefully, AirBNB and Uber are dead.  Dining in at restaurants might be forever changed, too.  How do we know that someone in the kitchen area doesn’t have the virus?  Plus, the virus can stay around 2-3 weeks after a place has been thoroughly disinfected (per the Diamond Princess experience).

Grocery delivery will finally succeed.  25+ years in to its existence, telecommuting will finally go mainstream.  Executive offices (now called shared worked areas, .e.g. WeWorks) should go back away.  They are simply VIs as I have termed them – Virus Incubators.

Other VIs are apartment complexes (especially mid- to -high rise buildings) and large cities like New York and San Francisco.  The denser the population the higher the rates of crime, disease, and numerous other issues.  If people truly want healthy lifestyles, move to the suburbs or rural areas.

The changes will be interesting to observe.  Everyone continue to be safe.  Maybe next week will be more interesting regarding the markets.

Godspeed

The Mann

UPDATE APRIL 1 (EVENING) – You know you are becoming immune to the chaos when 1000 point days in the stock market are no longer shocking.   Not much to add this evening.  Stocks might be starting their next significant downturn, but it isn’t a certainty.

One thing to note is that all of the stimulus acts that are being passed are only trying to replenish what has been lost.  There is no pent-up demand.  Wealth and Output have been permanently lost.  It is a misnomer to call these stimulus packages.  No stimulus is going to occur.  The money handout is simply trying to make as many people and companies as whole as possible.

I will say that it is about time that an infrastructure act is being considered.  $2 trillion at this time.  We missed the opportunity to do that in the last crisis.  With an expected 45 million people being unemployed over the next month, it would be good to put people to work to build our versions of the Hoover Dam and TVA and so on.

I won’t bore you as there isn’t much to add to what I have already said.  It is truly tragic that we will start seeing 3000 and 4000 Americans die each day.  Amazing we will likely hit 100,000 deaths by the end of this month.  And we just surpassed 4000 today.

Hopefully, we have learned a lot from this experience.  The sad thing we have learned is that some people are plain stupid and some just don’t care about others.  But, that is nothing new for the human species.  A lot of the virus spreading is due to plain selfishness.

The upside is we have seen how good most people are.  How we help each other out.  It would be great if we continued that after this pandemic is gone.  But, well before Election Day I am sure we will be back to a hateful 50/50 split country again.  Tragic.

I will post Friday evening.  As the markets are starting to calm down (well, to me they are getting boring already), I will likely post less frequently.

I did want to thank everyone that has been sharing information with me.  The more I can absorb the better.

Please stay safe!

The Mann

MARCH 30 (EVENING) – As expected, our essential shelter in place recommendation has been extended thru the whole month of April.  April has been projected to be the month where we finally peak in cases and start to see the curve flatten and rollover, hopefully.

I am confident the shelter in place will be extended to at least May 15th.  Maybe until Memorial Day weekend.

Trump is right when he says people in this country want to live a normal life.  Colds and the flu have never gone away.  We live normal lives with them coming and going thru the population and seasons.  I guess that will be the way with Covid-19, also – when we have a vaccination.  That is supposed to be 12+ months away.

There is a point where we just have to get back to normal and deal with the Covid-19 cases and deaths.  There is no choice.  But, we had to do this Social Distancing in this initial phase so as to avoid the 2,000,000+ deaths that were projected if we did nothing.

Continue to be safe.  And take advantage of the world being on a long time out.  I always wanted things to slow down.  To stop.  Time to stand still so we could relax and smell the roses.  Now is that time. This likely will not happen again in our lifetime.  Take advantage of this.  Reduce your stress, permanently.  Learn that things do not need to be rushed.  Do all of those things you stacked up to do when you finally had some time to do them.  You have that time now!

As for the stock market, today was up a bit.  I still cannot rule out a move above last week’s high of 22,595.  Whether or not that occurs, the expectation of a 25%+ decline remains.  I took advantage of the rally last week to get out of some oil stocks I stupidly got in too early.  We all make mistakes eh:)  But, best to cut your losses than let them ride.

Oil broke below $20 today.  I believe we are seeing the final down wave to what might well be the end of a 120-year combined bull and bear market.  I haven’t followed up on the timing issue mentioned last week.  So, just sitting on the sideline and watching the crash continue.

Gold and silver didn’t do much.  Significant declines are still expected.  That is a bit longer-term view so this isn’t a day-to-day forecast.

Everyone went crazy about the US Dollar being so strong.  So last week, I believe, was one of the worst weeks ever for the USD.  The markets love to get everybody to one side of the ship before sinking them.

So, nothing has changed re my forecasts.  The markets are starting to trade in a bit of a range.  This helps alleviate all of the record oversold readings for technical indicators.  We can’t go straight up to infinite nor straight down to zero.  More Wednesday evening when I post next.

I will drop this after one more mention of it….I don’t recall firefighters and police whining after 9/11.  Those people were proud of the fact that their peers ran straight into those towers to save as many people as possible.  I don’t recall them saying they were like lambs being led to the slaughter.  They were true heroes.  They know every day they go to work could be their last.  They don’t ask for sympathy.

So, I just don’t get it, and am truly disgusted by, the doctors and nurses in New York complaining about everything…we are risking our lives, we are overworked, whine whine.  They are truly ruining the appreciation they would get and deserve.  Maybe they just aren’t as tough as firefighters and police officers.  That isn’t in doubt really.  If you didn’t think you were going to be in many situations where you could become very sick or die by helping others, you shouldn’t have become a healthcare provider.  Thanks to the majority that do their job proudly and don’t whine in hopes of getting pity.

And as to us real estate appraisers arguing that what we do is essential….really?  An appraiser friend in Puerto Rico said they ruled it wasn’t essential.  I agree.  Albeit, I was happy the appraiser came out and appraised my daughter’s farm today so hopefully her closing will still occur in 2 weeks:)  But, truthfully, this isn’t an essential service.  Closings can be pushed back 2-3 months like everything else.

Enjoying life on the 5/3 Farm…..til Wednesday evening….be safe and stay well.

The Mann

JUST ANOTHER RECORD BAD WEEK

MARCH 20 (EVENING) – I had thought the markets had calmed down and it wasn’t much of a week.  Then I read this was one of the worst weeks since 2008.  I thought last week was.  Or the week before that.

I don’t have much to add to my lengthy post two evenings ago.

New lows should be set next week.  The question is will we have the largest declines to date – which would see more 3000 point down days.  Or will this be a moderate decline.  It is tough to see the DOW taking on another 3000 point down day or two.  But, …..

In trying to fine tune a range for a bottom, nothing has changed the 14,400 to 18,400 figures.  But, 15,500-15,700 is now looking good for a more precise bottom.  As I said initially, I think the low will be towards the bottom of the range.  I just can’t see us having an intermediate term bottom above 17,000.

The subsequent rally should return to the 21,000 area.  I didn’t think much about that, but then I realized that could be a 40%-50% rally.  I guess that isn’t something to sneeze at.

But, first let’s get down to the bottom.

VOO did have -$1.3 Billion this week.  So, it moved to the outflow list.  But, for the week investors poured over $6 Billion into stock ETFs.  This is insanity as the market crashes.  When tens of billions of dollars of funds are being taken out of stock ETFs we will be nearing a bottom.  We have a long way to go.

Remember, no need to be alarmed about the number of China Virus cases soaring for the next 4 weeks.  Experts say the cases should peak out by the end of April.  When optimism kicks in at the cases leveling out and then declining, don’t get carried away.  We are still in a major economic downturn that has only just begun.

For those looking for some perspective re the virus.  Wuhan had its first case on November 17th.  This week no new cases were reported in all of China.  From nothing to nothing in 5 months.  I forget when we had our first case – mid-February?  5 months gets us to July.  But, we got on top of this earlier than China did and the virus doesn’t like temps above 80 degrees and Summer is coming.  So, things are looking real good for the USA to be working on wrapping this virus up in May and June.  Let’s hope, eh.

Regarding real estate….I have heard that renters are leaving apartments to go to rental houses.  Less chance of catching the virus in a freestanding house.  Also, people are recognizing what I have been screaming about for decades – big cities are dense and it is easy for a virus to spread to the masses.  Ask the Big Apple about that!  Suburbs and especially rural areas are where people need to move to.  The jobs will follow.  The decay in our largest cities will accelerate as crime festers, diseases run rampant, homelessness gets out of hand, taxes are too high, traffic is a nightmare, on and on.

Thanks to those that have sent me information to look at.  I have found several new sources I will follow.  I truly appreciate it.

We just got our first known case of the virus in Aiken today.  We shall see how it plays out locally.

Learn to enjoy time at home with the family….like we used to before the internet ruined everything.  Put a dent in those honey-do lists:)  I know I am getting a lot done around the farm.

Stay safe.

My next update will be Monday evening.

Godspeed.

The Mann

THE BEAUTIFUL STOCK MARKET DECLINE THIS WEEK

UPDATES AT BOTTOM….last one Morning of March 9

February 27, 2020 – I know, I am one of the few people that enjoy market declines.  But, I have always said I was born to deal with Bear Markets.  Bear Markets are when you invest for the upcoming Bull Market.

I was just thinking last week that nothing could stop this market and when I have always had those thoughts a top would occur.  Many indicators were at extreme readings and sure enough this decline was likely to occur.

Gold is in a toppy range because it started to move $50 a day.  Gold tops occur when gold gets very volatile.  This isn’t to say a move into the $1700s cannot occur.  Just saying that the time for a top has been activated.

As for the market, let me try to make this very clear – this decline is NOT about the coronavirus.  The stock market reflects social mood about events 6 months in the future – not today!  The first two quarters of 2020 should be just fine for companies.  The question to answer is what has spooked the market about July-September of this year???

The first thing that came to my mind was when is the Democratic National Convention occurring.  That is July 13-16th.  Who can be nominated that would shock the markets?  Wall Street would clearly be worried if Pocahontas was nominated – and wins in November.  I am not so sure they are worried about Bernie Sanders.  Maybe they are worried about a Sanders/Warren ticket?  Regardless of what will occur this Summer….just know that it will occur and it will be shocking.  So, unlock the masses, don’t be shocked when it occurs….whatever ‘it’ will be.

As for a dead cat bounce rally in the markets, today’s low was 25,752 in the DOW 30.  It is likely a lower figure will be hit on Friday since the markets closed at their lows.  Wherever this temporary bottom occurs, a rally of at least 1500 points should occur.  That is a minimum.  I can tell more once that rally is finally underway.

In the interim, hold on tight.  The November Election will have a larger effect on the market than the coronavirus.  Around April or May the markets should telling us how the Election will play out.

And don’t forget about 23,377 I discuss in a prior post.  10 days ago that seemed out of play.  All of a sudden, it is a figure to keep an eye on.

As for the beer virus, educate yourself as always.  Over 16,000 (maybe as high as 48,000) Americans have died this Winter already from the flu!!!  Coronavirus has been around since the 1960’s.  Lysol cans say it kills coronavirus (maybe not this new strain).  This is nothing new.  We do not have vaccines for ALL of the flu strains.  We simply guess at what ones might appear this Winter.  But, the strains we guess wrongly on will hit the masses.  Why would it be different with coronavirus.

Wash your hands and cover your mouth – simple logic for all of the time.  Oh, and don’t buy masks.  They won’t help at all.  Not even professional medical masks will help (unless you are a professional who knows how to wear them….and they say even then, it would have to be worn all of the time).  The Fake News Media always has an agenda.  Almost always that is a bad Agenda.  As always, educate yourself and ignore whatever the Fake News Media says.

UPDATE Evening of February 28, 2020 – That was a week for the ages!  Simply beautiful to look at the charts.

Today proved the masses wrong that think when stocks go down, gold goes up.  Gold had its worst day since 2013.  When people panic they sell everything….except T-Bonds which they run to for security.  T-Bonds are at record highs.  Which, of course, means there is only one way to go:)

It is doubtful today’s low of 24,681 is the low for this initial move.  But, if it is, a counter trend rally should carry to the 26,500-27,700 range.  But, first we have to see if Friday’s low hold.  Should be another interesting time next week, volatility will start to subside.

UPDATE Evening of March 2, 2020 – Well, the largest declines in history were followed by the largest rally in history today.  In one day, the DOW rallied to the target range noted above and closed at 26,703.  The markets do in a day or week what used to take months and years.  Amazing to watch.

Although I think most of this rally has already been achieved, I believe the market will become range bound for a week or two.  We need to simply settle down and let all of the indicators get back to being meaningful.  Time needs to unfold for awhile and projections will become fine tuned.  I am not a buyer at this time.  I want to let some time pass by and see where we stand.

As an aside, the markets are telling the Fed to cut rates by 75bp.  I suspect a 50bp cut will occur first as the additional 25bp might come into question over the next week or two.  100% of the time the Fed takes action AFTER the market has already made its move.  The Fed has NEVER taken preemptive action.

Update Evening of March 5th – The trading range is occurring. My initial target of 27,100 has now been hit almost to the dollar twice in the past few days.  No way I am thinking that will be the top of this rally.  The market is too volatile.  With more days in the books, it looks like 27,500 to 28,100 is a good range for the top of this rally to occur.  The scary part is when this rally ends the subsequent decline should be more than 5000 points.  I would say 8000 points would be likely.  That would tell me that come the end of Summer and beginning of Fall the markets expect a Trump loss to be a sure thing.  We shall see how this plays out.

More people died in the Nashville tornado than the coronavirus has killed in America.  Just a total joke to even be talking about the beer virus.  Godspeed to those in Nashville.

Update Morning of March 9th – And it looks like the 8,000 point decline is underway.  Hard to believe my projection of a top at 27100 was almost to the dollar.  But, oh well, I will wake it.  The Dow is down almost 2000 points at the opening.  That is what is called Wave 3 of 3 and the maximum velocity down.  Usually it means we are half way to where a bottom might form.  As I write, they just closed the markets for a 15-minute break.  This is the 1929 and 1987 Crashes all over again.

I went in to energy stocks big time this morning with oil down 25% today.  I will wait to invest more in a different industry once we start forming a bottom.  Buy on panics not at bubble tops.  Enjoy the ride folks.  Be patient.

19,100 is the early target for this 3rd Wave decline.

The Mann

SOCIONOMICS FORECAST UPDATE – 23,377, THE NUMBER TO WATCH

January 27, 2020 – As we are about a month in to the new year and the markets hit new highs last week, the only thing to say at this moment is the obvious – 1st and 2nd Quarter economic growth should be just fine.

The markets have no concerns.  Which is usually a sign of a top and something unexpected is about to occur….we shall see.  All of those experts that were predicting a recession a year ago sure look foolish….as usual.

A few months ago I addressed what Socionomics was forecasting for 2020 and the Election.  The key number to watch is 23,377 for the Dow 30 – If it is above that figure on October 31st, then Trump should win re-election.  Below that figure and he should lose re-election.

With the Dow around 29,000, the current expectation is re-election.  But, it will be October 31 that will be the date that matters.

I will update this as the year goes along.

The Mann