UPDATE APRIL 3 (EVENING) – Thankfully, a calmer week in the books. Nothing has changed regarding my market forecasts.
I did want to congratulate Morgan Stanley on correctly forecasting the 700,000 job losses that was reported this morning. That was an extremely difficult forecast to make and to nail it is impressive.
Oil was up 40% in two days. We will let it play out a bit more to see if a final low is in place or not.
It is becoming apparent that there will be some major changes in our world going forward. Hopefully, AirBNB and Uber are dead. Dining in at restaurants might be forever changed, too. How do we know that someone in the kitchen area doesn’t have the virus? Plus, the virus can stay around 2-3 weeks after a place has been thoroughly disinfected (per the Diamond Princess experience).
Grocery delivery will finally succeed. 25+ years in to its existence, telecommuting will finally go mainstream. Executive offices (now called shared worked areas, .e.g. WeWorks) should go back away. They are simply VIs as I have termed them – Virus Incubators.
Other VIs are apartment complexes (especially mid- to -high rise buildings) and large cities like New York and San Francisco. The denser the population the higher the rates of crime, disease, and numerous other issues. If people truly want healthy lifestyles, move to the suburbs or rural areas.
The changes will be interesting to observe. Everyone continue to be safe. Maybe next week will be more interesting regarding the markets.
UPDATE APRIL 1 (EVENING) – You know you are becoming immune to the chaos when 1000 point days in the stock market are no longer shocking. Not much to add this evening. Stocks might be starting their next significant downturn, but it isn’t a certainty.
One thing to note is that all of the stimulus acts that are being passed are only trying to replenish what has been lost. There is no pent-up demand. Wealth and Output have been permanently lost. It is a misnomer to call these stimulus packages. No stimulus is going to occur. The money handout is simply trying to make as many people and companies as whole as possible.
I will say that it is about time that an infrastructure act is being considered. $2 trillion at this time. We missed the opportunity to do that in the last crisis. With an expected 45 million people being unemployed over the next month, it would be good to put people to work to build our versions of the Hoover Dam and TVA and so on.
I won’t bore you as there isn’t much to add to what I have already said. It is truly tragic that we will start seeing 3000 and 4000 Americans die each day. Amazing we will likely hit 100,000 deaths by the end of this month. And we just surpassed 4000 today.
Hopefully, we have learned a lot from this experience. The sad thing we have learned is that some people are plain stupid and some just don’t care about others. But, that is nothing new for the human species. A lot of the virus spreading is due to plain selfishness.
The upside is we have seen how good most people are. How we help each other out. It would be great if we continued that after this pandemic is gone. But, well before Election Day I am sure we will be back to a hateful 50/50 split country again. Tragic.
I will post Friday evening. As the markets are starting to calm down (well, to me they are getting boring already), I will likely post less frequently.
I did want to thank everyone that has been sharing information with me. The more I can absorb the better.
Please stay safe!
MARCH 30 (EVENING) – As expected, our essential shelter in place recommendation has been extended thru the whole month of April. April has been projected to be the month where we finally peak in cases and start to see the curve flatten and rollover, hopefully.
I am confident the shelter in place will be extended to at least May 15th. Maybe until Memorial Day weekend.
Trump is right when he says people in this country want to live a normal life. Colds and the flu have never gone away. We live normal lives with them coming and going thru the population and seasons. I guess that will be the way with Covid-19, also – when we have a vaccination. That is supposed to be 12+ months away.
There is a point where we just have to get back to normal and deal with the Covid-19 cases and deaths. There is no choice. But, we had to do this Social Distancing in this initial phase so as to avoid the 2,000,000+ deaths that were projected if we did nothing.
Continue to be safe. And take advantage of the world being on a long time out. I always wanted things to slow down. To stop. Time to stand still so we could relax and smell the roses. Now is that time. This likely will not happen again in our lifetime. Take advantage of this. Reduce your stress, permanently. Learn that things do not need to be rushed. Do all of those things you stacked up to do when you finally had some time to do them. You have that time now!
As for the stock market, today was up a bit. I still cannot rule out a move above last week’s high of 22,595. Whether or not that occurs, the expectation of a 25%+ decline remains. I took advantage of the rally last week to get out of some oil stocks I stupidly got in too early. We all make mistakes eh:) But, best to cut your losses than let them ride.
Oil broke below $20 today. I believe we are seeing the final down wave to what might well be the end of a 120-year combined bull and bear market. I haven’t followed up on the timing issue mentioned last week. So, just sitting on the sideline and watching the crash continue.
Gold and silver didn’t do much. Significant declines are still expected. That is a bit longer-term view so this isn’t a day-to-day forecast.
Everyone went crazy about the US Dollar being so strong. So last week, I believe, was one of the worst weeks ever for the USD. The markets love to get everybody to one side of the ship before sinking them.
So, nothing has changed re my forecasts. The markets are starting to trade in a bit of a range. This helps alleviate all of the record oversold readings for technical indicators. We can’t go straight up to infinite nor straight down to zero. More Wednesday evening when I post next.
I will drop this after one more mention of it….I don’t recall firefighters and police whining after 9/11. Those people were proud of the fact that their peers ran straight into those towers to save as many people as possible. I don’t recall them saying they were like lambs being led to the slaughter. They were true heroes. They know every day they go to work could be their last. They don’t ask for sympathy.
So, I just don’t get it, and am truly disgusted by, the doctors and nurses in New York complaining about everything…we are risking our lives, we are overworked, whine whine. They are truly ruining the appreciation they would get and deserve. Maybe they just aren’t as tough as firefighters and police officers. That isn’t in doubt really. If you didn’t think you were going to be in many situations where you could become very sick or die by helping others, you shouldn’t have become a healthcare provider. Thanks to the majority that do their job proudly and don’t whine in hopes of getting pity.
And as to us real estate appraisers arguing that what we do is essential….really? An appraiser friend in Puerto Rico said they ruled it wasn’t essential. I agree. Albeit, I was happy the appraiser came out and appraised my daughter’s farm today so hopefully her closing will still occur in 2 weeks:) But, truthfully, this isn’t an essential service. Closings can be pushed back 2-3 months like everything else.
Enjoying life on the 5/3 Farm…..til Wednesday evening….be safe and stay well.