UPDATE SEPTEMBER 11, 2025 – RIP Charlie Kirk and Never Forget 9/11. This country and world need a lot of help is all I will say.
August CPI came in on target at 2.9%. The data points to 3.0% next month followed by a surge above 3% through yearend. Again, whether there were tariffs or not, this was going to happen. Tariffs are not relevant.
As of today, the market has set the Fed Funds Rate at 3.7%-3.9%.
SEPTEMBER 8, 2025 – The consensus, and my data, expect CPI to increase to 2.9% from last month’s 2.7%, Just a reminder, this has nothing to do with tariffs. But, those who think it does will be screaming they are right. The market is giving a 100% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting by 25bp. A 12% chance it will be 50bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.9%-4.0%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. As I have said all along, the market would put rates at a point that tells the Fed to lower them by 25bp, with a minor chance of 50bp. I believe we are around a bottom for interest rates. So, I think it will be unlikely we see a 50bp reduction. Let me conclude with what I wrote on August 8th: “Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall.” Shalom, The Mann
AUGUST 12, 2025 – The July report came in at 2.7%, a tick below the range that the data predicted and analysts expected. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.8%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.4%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.7%), and, thus indicate the annual CPI should increase slightly over the next few months. The data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think that will be spot on. The pundits and economists that have been calling for surging inflation due to tariffs have been 100% wrong. Again today, they are all saying just wait, it is coming. Lucky for them, it is looking like a sure thing that the CPI will be between 3.0% and 3.5% during the 4th Quarter. This will occur with or without tariffs. As we have seen all year, tariffs are not relevant. The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting, Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.3%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. We have 5 weeks until decision time. If rates tick down another 10bp or such, a 25bp rate cut would be appropriate. Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall. Shalom, The Mann
UPDATE AUGUST 15, 2025 – RIP any chance of a recession occurring this year. The Dow hit an all-time high this morning above 45,200. Don’t worry about a recession this year. With a good chance of CPI being above 3% in the 4th Quarter (as I noted in another post, that has NOTHING to do with tariffs), that is the only item for you to deal with that might affect your decision-making.
AUGUST 1, 2025 – With the Jobs Report coming in very weak today, immediately the pundits began screaming that a recession was occurring. Let me be clear and to the point – there is a 0% (!) chance of a recession occurring this year. No doublespeak from me:) With the 3rd Quarter GDP very likely to be positive, we will not have two consecutive negative quarters this year. As I noted before, the 1st Quarter GDP was only negative because of an atypical trade issue due to the tariffs. Averaging out the first quarters, GDP has been above 1% this year. It will likely end the year up 1.5%-2.0%. This is an EXTREMELY STRONG economy. GDP growing at over twice the rate of population indicates a strong economy. Another indicator used to forecast recessions is the yield curve. It is currently a negative 35bp. We are a long way from +100bp which will indicate we are in a recession. Also, the stock market has made it clear that the economy will be strong through yearend. Yes, a hiccup and bit of a slowdown here and there are likely. But, overall, growth will be strong and a recession will not occur this year. Let the recession-screaming pundits show how wrong they are over the next five months. Shalom, The Mann
UPDATE JULY 29, 2025 – It’s the day before the Fed announcement. As noted below, interest rates have not changed in the past 2 weeks. The market still has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. Right in the middle of the current 4.25%-4.5% range. The rate should remain unchanged and Trump should still be mad at Powell. The market is pricing in a reduction in September. I will see where we stand in two months.
JULY 15, 2025 – The June report came in at 2.7%, a tick above the range that the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.5%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.4%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.7%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase over the next few months. The data is predicting a reading of 2.8%-2.9% next month. I think that will be spot on. Please note, the CPI increases this Summer will be because inflation was around 0.1% per month last Summer. The increases will not be due to tariffs. On July 30th at 2pm Eastern, the Fed will announce its decision on the Fed Funds Rate. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It is currently 4.25%-4.5%. The market is telling Mr. Powell not to cut the rate. Things can change in two weeks. But, that is doubtful as rates have been steady for awhile. A sure bet is President Trump will tweet soon thereafter condemning Powell again:) Shalom, The Mann
JUNE 12, 2025 – The May report came in at 2.4%, at the lower end of the range that the data predicted. The most ridiculous forecast was from Goldman Sachs that expected a 2.9% reading. They could pay me half of what they pay their CPI staff and save lots of money and be more accurate with their forecasts. LOL The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.0%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.8%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase slightly. The data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark. There is a chance it could go as high as 2.8%. The one thing today’s reading showed us is tariffs do not cause inflation. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. There will not be a reduction in this rate at next week’s Fed meeting. Also, President Trump will tweet soon thereafter condemning Powell again:) Shalom, The Mann
MAY 14, 2025 – The April report came in at 2.3%, right in the middle of the range that the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.3%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.3%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase slightly. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark. There is a chance it may stay at 2.3%. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. Shalom, The Mann
APRIL 11, 2025 – The March report came in at 2.4%, at the low end of what the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 5.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.9%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase. The data is predicting a reading of 2.2%-2.4% next month. I think that will be in the ballpark. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.2-4.3%. It was recently cut to 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed doesn’t have any catching up to do. But, it seems, the market is now predicting rates could be cut numerous times until they are down to 3.5%. However, this is only given a 33% chance. So, not significant, yet. Shalom, The Mann
MARCH 12, 2025 – The February report came in at 2.8%, below my estimate at 3.0%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 4.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.7%. These figures are at or above the annualized rate (2.8%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain steady. The data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I am thinking 2.6%-2.8%. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.2%, down from 4.3%-4.4% the past few months. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. But, it seems, the market has given the Fed the go ahead to cut it 25bp next week. Shalom, The Mann PS – I said I would not post stock market forecasts. However, with the current correction being the talk of the town, I might post something soon. Especially since the market forecasts the economy’s future and everyone has the ‘R’ word on their mind.
FEBRUARY 13, 2025 – The January report came in at 3.0%, just above the top end of my estimate at 2.7%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.6%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.1%. These figures are below the annualized rate (3.0%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will remain near 3.0%. I have seen some indicators that show companies started spending significantly right after the Election. This should result in what I call TrumpFlation. When everyone is building and investing and acquiring, inflation must go up. The only thing that will keep the annualized figure from soaring is the first four months of 2024 also had high inflation figures. As a side note, the 8-month streak of monthly CPI being at 0.20% or lower has ended. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month. Shalom, The Mann
JANUARY 17, 2025 – The December report came in at 2.9%, exactly where the data indicated and above my estimate at 2.6%-2.7%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.4%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. These figures are well below the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should decline slightly. In fact, the data is predicting a reading of 2.4%-2.5% next month. Inflation is at its highest at the beginning of the year. So, I think it will be 2.7%-2.9%. As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 8 straight months. There are many areas of deflation out there. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It was recently cut to 4.75%. The Fed doesn’t have much catching up to do. Til next month. Shalom, The Mann
