March 13, 2026 – February CPI came in at 2.4%. This was around the consensus and in the middle of my projected range. 3-month inflation is 3.3% and 6-month inflation is 1.7%. This brackets the annual rate.
My data expects CPI to be 2.3%-2.5% in the next report. I think that is reasonable with the odds being more towards the high end.
Now that the tariffs argument is pushing up daisies, the inflation mongers get to grab on to high oil prices. Although transportation is a significant cost, I don’t think it will translate to a huge inflation bump. But, I would expect some increase this Summer. It takes 45-120 days for oil to get shipped around to various places in the world. So, any tick up in CPI due to current oil prices won’t occur for 4-6 months. The futures market is pricing oil in 6 months at pre-conflict prices. Something will happen. It just won’t be huge.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely. In fact, the market has changed to not expecting any rate cuts this year! A side note, the 30-year rate is about to hit 5% again.
FUTURIST TIDBIT – For those that read to the end, I will provide a tidbit of information about how quickly we are advancing down the AI highway. The company OSMO has digitized smell. We first digitized sight. Then we digitized sound. Now, it is smell. I guess one day the other senses will be digitized. When I look at everything, I am amazed that we are simply a world of 1s and 0s. Every picture. Every video. Every sound. Simply consist of 1s and 0s. Think about that. Now you can add smell to that list:)
I’ll briefly mention a second tidbit as I have not dug deeper into this event. Standford University has successfully created energy in space and transferred it to Earth. Ultimately, besides fission and/or fusion, this will lead to unlimited cheap to free electricity worldwide. Elon Musk has said he will need to use space for the amount of electricity his companies will need. When OpenAI alone will use more electricity than all of India, you see the need for new ways to create power. Space with its cold temp is ideal. More in future posts.
As one of my 1980s bands sang – the future is so bright, I have to wear shades:)
Shalom,
The Mann
Tag Archives: Fed Funds Rate
INFLATION & FED FUNDS RATE UPDATE
FEBRUARY 17, 2026 – January CPI came in at 2.4%. This was below the consensus 2.5% and should put the discussion of tariffs to bed permanently. 3-month inflation is 0.6% and 6-month inflation is 1.4%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history. Getting to 2% will be extremely difficult. But, I am not sure it is needed.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 2.0%-2.1% in the next report. I think it will be in the 2.3%-2.5% range.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 2.0%-2.1% in the next report. I think it will be in the 2.3%-2.5% range.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
RIP TARIFFS ARGUMENT
JANUARY 26, 2026 – Now, it is official that everyone that said tariffs would lead to runaway inflation and a recession have been PROVEN WRONG! Will they admit it? No. Just research anyone you hear to see if they had predicted tariffs would be a problem. If they did, then why listen to them now? You heard me say from the beginning they would not be a problem.
December CPI came in at an amazing 2.7%. It is hard to explain how incredible the year ending below 3.0% is. I doubt anyone will mention this, but, deflation might be more of a worry now. 3-month inflation is -0.9% and 6-month inflation is +0.9%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 1.9%-2.1% in the next report. January usually has about the highest inflation reading of the year. So, I would expect something in the 2.5%-2.8%.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
December CPI came in at an amazing 2.7%. It is hard to explain how incredible the year ending below 3.0% is. I doubt anyone will mention this, but, deflation might be more of a worry now. 3-month inflation is -0.9% and 6-month inflation is +0.9%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 1.9%-2.1% in the next report. January usually has about the highest inflation reading of the year. So, I would expect something in the 2.5%-2.8%.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann
HAPPY NEW YEAR
DECEMBER 26, 2025 – I hope you had a great 2025 and that 2026 will be even better. Just a quick update on various items.
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
FED FUNDS RATE
DECEMBER 4, 2025 – The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Unless rates drop 10+ bp in a week, I don’t see a rate cut occurring. I believe President Trump puts his new Fed Chair in place in January. For the first in history, we may have the Fed change rates against what the market is telling it to do. We shall see. And if it occurs, we will see how the markets react. In the interim, Happy Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS RATE UPDATE
OCTOBER 24, 2025 – September CPI came in as expected at 3.0%. My data expects CPI to increase to 3.1%-3.2% in the next report. Just a reminder, this has nothing to do with tariffs. But, those who think it does will be screaming they are right. A few months ago I forecast that the CPI would spend the 4th Quarter above 3%.
The market is giving a 99% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.8%-3.9%. It is set at 4.0%-4.25%. For me, it looks like a 50/50 chance of staying unchanged or being reduced by 25bp. Setting the rate at 3.75%-4.0% would put it right on top of where the market has it. This is a rare time where the market is saying hey Mr. Powell either way is fine with us. Your call.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market is giving a 99% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.8%-3.9%. It is set at 4.0%-4.25%. For me, it looks like a 50/50 chance of staying unchanged or being reduced by 25bp. Setting the rate at 3.75%-4.0% would put it right on top of where the market has it. This is a rare time where the market is saying hey Mr. Powell either way is fine with us. Your call.
Shalom,
The Mann
MORTGAGE RATES ARE LOW, NOT HIGH
SEPTEMBER 27, 2025 – I posted in 2023 and 2024 that people can easily afford 7% mortgage rates. Except for about 6 months, 30-year mortgage rates have been between 6% and 7% since 2022. During this 4-year timeframe (prorating through the end of 2025). about 20 million new and existing homes have been sold. Yes, this is down a bit from the 4 prior years. However, 2020 and 2021 were an anomaly due to mass moving after the pandemic. People buy a monthly payment. As I predicted, the public would simply adjust their expectations and buy what they can afford at a 7% interest rate. For some perspective, this rate is nothing compared to a credit card statement I recently received stating their APR is 34.9%!!!!!! I thought there were laws against absurdly high interest rates???
Side note….The market has the Fed Funds Rate at 3.9%-4.0%. Not much change since the Fed lowered the rate last week.
Shalom,
The Mann
Side note….The market has the Fed Funds Rate at 3.9%-4.0%. Not much change since the Fed lowered the rate last week.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS RATE UPDATE
UPDATE SEPTEMBER 11, 2025 – RIP Charlie Kirk and Never Forget 9/11. This country and world need a lot of help is all I will say.
August CPI came in on target at 2.9%. The data points to 3.0% next month followed by a surge above 3% through yearend. Again, whether there were tariffs or not, this was going to happen. Tariffs are not relevant.
As of today, the market has set the Fed Funds Rate at 3.7%-3.9%.
SEPTEMBER 8, 2025 – The consensus, and my data, expect CPI to increase to 2.9% from last month’s 2.7%, Just a reminder, this has nothing to do with tariffs. But, those who think it does will be screaming they are right.
The market is giving a 100% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting by 25bp. A 12% chance it will be 50bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.9%-4.0%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. As I have said all along, the market would put rates at a point that tells the Fed to lower them by 25bp, with a minor chance of 50bp. I believe we are around a bottom for interest rates. So, I think it will be unlikely we see a 50bp reduction. Let me conclude with what I wrote on August 8th:
“Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall.”
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS UPDATE
AUGUST 12, 2025 – The July report came in at 2.7%, a tick below the range that the data predicted and analysts expected. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.8%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.4%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.7%), and, thus indicate the annual CPI should increase slightly over the next few months. The data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think that will be spot on. The pundits and economists that have been calling for surging inflation due to tariffs have been 100% wrong. Again today, they are all saying just wait, it is coming. Lucky for them, it is looking like a sure thing that the CPI will be between 3.0% and 3.5% during the 4th Quarter. This will occur with or without tariffs. As we have seen all year, tariffs are not relevant.
The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting, Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.3%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. We have 5 weeks until decision time. If rates tick down another 10bp or such, a 25bp rate cut would be appropriate.
Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting, Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.3%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. We have 5 weeks until decision time. If rates tick down another 10bp or such, a 25bp rate cut would be appropriate.
Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall.
Shalom,
The Mann
ECONOMY & FED FUNDS UPDATE
UPDATE AUGUST 4, 2025 – After the Job Report, the market adjusted the Fed Funds Rate to 4.0%-4.2%. This is getting the Fed set up to lower the rate 25bp in September. But, that is over 7 weeks away. The market can change its mind in the interim.
JULY 30, 2025 – You can go back to my July 1st post that says the following:
“1st Quarter GDP was adjusted to -0.5%. 2nd Quarter GDP should come in around 3% (2.5%-4.0% seems to be the consensus). The average for the first half of the year should be around 1.3%.”
2nd Quarter GDP came in at exactly 3.0%. I’ll take that, albeit just a lucky guess on my part. The consensus ended up being +2.3%.
The Tariff Mongers now have to start screaming about the rest of the year being doomsday. A stopped clock is right twice a day. Which is two more times than the Tariff Mongers will be:)
As noted, in my Fed Funds Rate posts, the Fed did as the market told them to do – no change in the rate. The Fed following the market 100% of the time continues.
It will be interesting to see if Powell’s successor lowers rates when the market is saying not to. That would be unprecedented and I think it will cause major market turmoil. We will revisit this when we get to that bridge.
My ad nauseum reminder to you is what actually predicted the above two items? The market. Not The Mann. I simply interpret what the market is saying. Six months in advance the stock market said the economy would have a hiccup in the 1st Quarter followed by strength in the 2nd Quarter. It is saying the same for the 3rd and 4th Quarters. So, any weakness in the 3rd Quarter (early estimates are above +2%) will let the Tariff Mongers say they are right. The 4th Quarter will show they were never right.
Remember, ignore all the pundits. Simply watch what the market is forecasting 6 months in advance. It is that easy. And it is free information:)
Shalom,
The Mann