DECEMBER 26, 2025 – I hope you had a great 2025 and that 2026 will be even better. Just a quick update on various items.
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann
All posts by George Mann
FED FUNDS RATE
DECEMBER 4, 2025 – The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Unless rates drop 10+ bp in a week, I don’t see a rate cut occurring. I believe President Trump puts his new Fed Chair in place in January. For the first in history, we may have the Fed change rates against what the market is telling it to do. We shall see. And if it occurs, we will see how the markets react. In the interim, Happy Holidays!
Shalom,
The Mann
Shalom,
The Mann
VALIDATIONS – IT ONLY TOOK 30 YEARS….
NOVEMBER 19, 2025 – The Appraisal Institute’s latest Valuation magazine had an article on Validations and fee appraisers providing this service. For 20 years, I tried to convince fee appraisers to do Evaluations. They opposed such and fought against state laws being passed to allow non-USPAP Evaluations. Finally, around 2015, they saw the light and Evaluations are a common product that financial institutions outsource to AMCs and appraisers.
It is now 30 years since I drafted a Validation report. I waited until Evaluations had become commonplace before I brought up this final product that fee appraisers can provide. Below is my post from 2020. My forecast that Validations will become the next product for fee appraisers to provide is coming true.
In 2020, I wrote an outline for a Seminar on Validations (4 hours). I redesigned my Validation report for staff appraisers. I have not designed the Validation report for fee appraisers, yet. But, can do that in an hour or two when needed.
I am not up for putting the meat on the bones for my Seminar. IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO WORK WITH ME TO WRITE THE SEMINAR AND MARKET IT, PLEASE CONTACT ME. NO NEED FOR THE WORLD TO WAIT FOR THE APPRAISAL INSTITUTE TO COME OUT WITH SOMETHING. And I doubt anyone else in the country has been performing Validations since 1994 other than me:) I am also the only person to co-write two articles solely about Validations that were published in The RMA Journal.
Happy Thanksgiving.
The Mann
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MAY 29, 2020 – Validations are the little known and little used product that get overlooked in the world of Appraisals and Evaluations. The December 2010 Interagency Appraisals and Evaluations Guidelines (IAEG) document has the following section that addresses Validations:
XIV. Validity of Appraisals and Evaluations
The Agencies allow an institution to use an existing appraisal or evaluation to support a subsequent transaction in certain circumstances. Therefore, an institution should establish criteria for assessing whether an existing appraisal or evaluation continues to reflect the market value of the property (that is, remains valid). Such criteria will vary depending upon the condition of the property and the marketplace, and the nature of the transaction. The documentation in the credit file should provide the facts and analysis to support the institution’s conclusion that the existing appraisal or evaluation may be used in the subsequent transaction. A new appraisal or evaluation is necessary if the originally reported market value has changed due to factors such as:
Passage of time.
Volatility of the local market.
Changes in terms and availability of financing.
Natural disasters.
Limited or over supply of competing properties.
Improvements to the subject property or competing properties.
Lack of maintenance of the subject or competing properties.
Changes in underlying economic and market assumptions, such as capitalization rates and lease terms.
Changes in zoning, building materials, or technology.
Environmental contamination.
Validations answer one simple question – is the value of the real estate collateral equal to or greater than the value in a prior Appraisal or Evaluation? If so, then that value can be brought up to today. If not, then a new Appraisal or Evaluation is needed.
Validations are useful in level to rising markets. They are not very useful in the current market conditions.
However, not all property types have experienced a value decline this year. In general, industrial properties and national tenant leased properties where the tenant has a bond rating A and above, are still candidates for Validations. Apartments might be depending on the age of the prior Appraisal or Evaluation and the property location.
I have updated the Validation Report that I originally developed in 1994. This report is intended to be used by internal bank employees. It is not for use by fee appraisers, as it does not comply with USPAP. If you are a bank employee and want a copy of my report template, just email me at GeorgeRMann@Aol.Com. I will send it to you for free:)
It took me 25 years to finally get Evaluations to be mainstream. Validations are next. They are under utilized. Albeit, today’s market is not ideal for them. But, we will get back to market conditions where they are useful again. My plan is to design a Restricted Appraisal Report (RAR) specific to the Validations need for fee appraisers to use. But, at this time, this is not needed for the most part.
Again, bank staff please contact me if you want a copy of my template.
RIP CLIMATE CHANGE HOAXERS…..AGAIN:)
OCTOBER 24, 2025 – In what has become an annual big thanks from plants, they once again thank us for a record-breaking year of CO2 levels. The amount of emissions was up almost 50% (!!!!) over the prior year and prior decade average!!!!
The world has told the Climate Change Hoaxers they see through their lies. They are tired of these people crying wolf for the past 40+ years. We are WAY PAST their lines in the sand where the planet will never recover. As I continue to tell them, the war has been lost! Go away!
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/co2-levels-reach-record-new-high-locking-in-more-global-warming
Two amazing stats I came across recently:
1. 33% of Oregon’s electricity and 39% (!!!) of Virginia’s electricity are used by data centers. For the Country, and most states, it is in the 5%-10% range. Most data centers (we have a $1 Billion one being built in my area) are now providing their own power source. The small nuclear building cubes as I call them are pretty cool.
2. OpenAI (owns ChatGPT) says that in 8 years it will use more electricity than the entire country of India (1.4 billion people)!!! Amazing that one company will use more power than the country with the most people.
If you wonder where to invest over the next 5-10 years, the above tells you a lot.
Shalom,
The Mann
The world has told the Climate Change Hoaxers they see through their lies. They are tired of these people crying wolf for the past 40+ years. We are WAY PAST their lines in the sand where the planet will never recover. As I continue to tell them, the war has been lost! Go away!
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/co2-levels-reach-record-new-high-locking-in-more-global-warming
Two amazing stats I came across recently:
1. 33% of Oregon’s electricity and 39% (!!!) of Virginia’s electricity are used by data centers. For the Country, and most states, it is in the 5%-10% range. Most data centers (we have a $1 Billion one being built in my area) are now providing their own power source. The small nuclear building cubes as I call them are pretty cool.
2. OpenAI (owns ChatGPT) says that in 8 years it will use more electricity than the entire country of India (1.4 billion people)!!! Amazing that one company will use more power than the country with the most people.
If you wonder where to invest over the next 5-10 years, the above tells you a lot.
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS RATE UPDATE
OCTOBER 24, 2025 – September CPI came in as expected at 3.0%. My data expects CPI to increase to 3.1%-3.2% in the next report. Just a reminder, this has nothing to do with tariffs. But, those who think it does will be screaming they are right. A few months ago I forecast that the CPI would spend the 4th Quarter above 3%.
The market is giving a 99% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.8%-3.9%. It is set at 4.0%-4.25%. For me, it looks like a 50/50 chance of staying unchanged or being reduced by 25bp. Setting the rate at 3.75%-4.0% would put it right on top of where the market has it. This is a rare time where the market is saying hey Mr. Powell either way is fine with us. Your call.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market is giving a 99% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at next week’s meeting by 25bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.8%-3.9%. It is set at 4.0%-4.25%. For me, it looks like a 50/50 chance of staying unchanged or being reduced by 25bp. Setting the rate at 3.75%-4.0% would put it right on top of where the market has it. This is a rare time where the market is saying hey Mr. Powell either way is fine with us. Your call.
Shalom,
The Mann
MORTGAGE RATES ARE LOW, NOT HIGH
SEPTEMBER 27, 2025 – I posted in 2023 and 2024 that people can easily afford 7% mortgage rates. Except for about 6 months, 30-year mortgage rates have been between 6% and 7% since 2022. During this 4-year timeframe (prorating through the end of 2025). about 20 million new and existing homes have been sold. Yes, this is down a bit from the 4 prior years. However, 2020 and 2021 were an anomaly due to mass moving after the pandemic. People buy a monthly payment. As I predicted, the public would simply adjust their expectations and buy what they can afford at a 7% interest rate. For some perspective, this rate is nothing compared to a credit card statement I recently received stating their APR is 34.9%!!!!!! I thought there were laws against absurdly high interest rates???
Side note….The market has the Fed Funds Rate at 3.9%-4.0%. Not much change since the Fed lowered the rate last week.
Shalom,
The Mann
Side note….The market has the Fed Funds Rate at 3.9%-4.0%. Not much change since the Fed lowered the rate last week.
Shalom,
The Mann
JUST TO REITERATE – 0% CHANCE OF A RECESSION THIS YEAR
SEPTEMBER 25, 2025 – A reminder there are just 3 months until Christmas:) You are welcome.
Second Quarter GDP was revised upward to +3.8%. Basically, the first half of the year saw about 2% growth. Third Quarter GDP is forecast to be around 3%. It is likely economic growth will be increasing through yearend – not decreasing as most everyone has forecast all year. Let me say it again – tariffs are not relevant!
The DOW 30 is at all-time highs over 46,000. Basically, it is saying we will have a strong economy through the 1st Quarter of 2026.
NOTE: 2025 MAY SEE THE FIRST EVER POPULATION DECLINE IN AMERICA’S HISTORY!!! I have long told everyone they need to be planning on contracting demand. Stop planning on growth forever. The workforce peaked around 2000. It will never get back to that size. Plan accordingly!
RIP 2025 Recession Forecast
Shalom,
The Mann
Second Quarter GDP was revised upward to +3.8%. Basically, the first half of the year saw about 2% growth. Third Quarter GDP is forecast to be around 3%. It is likely economic growth will be increasing through yearend – not decreasing as most everyone has forecast all year. Let me say it again – tariffs are not relevant!
The DOW 30 is at all-time highs over 46,000. Basically, it is saying we will have a strong economy through the 1st Quarter of 2026.
NOTE: 2025 MAY SEE THE FIRST EVER POPULATION DECLINE IN AMERICA’S HISTORY!!! I have long told everyone they need to be planning on contracting demand. Stop planning on growth forever. The workforce peaked around 2000. It will never get back to that size. Plan accordingly!
RIP 2025 Recession Forecast
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS RATE UPDATE
UPDATE SEPTEMBER 11, 2025 – RIP Charlie Kirk and Never Forget 9/11. This country and world need a lot of help is all I will say.
August CPI came in on target at 2.9%. The data points to 3.0% next month followed by a surge above 3% through yearend. Again, whether there were tariffs or not, this was going to happen. Tariffs are not relevant.
As of today, the market has set the Fed Funds Rate at 3.7%-3.9%.
SEPTEMBER 8, 2025 – The consensus, and my data, expect CPI to increase to 2.9% from last month’s 2.7%, Just a reminder, this has nothing to do with tariffs. But, those who think it does will be screaming they are right.
The market is giving a 100% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting by 25bp. A 12% chance it will be 50bp. Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.9%-4.0%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. As I have said all along, the market would put rates at a point that tells the Fed to lower them by 25bp, with a minor chance of 50bp. I believe we are around a bottom for interest rates. So, I think it will be unlikely we see a 50bp reduction. Let me conclude with what I wrote on August 8th:
“Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall.”
Shalom,
The Mann
INFLATION & FED FUNDS UPDATE
AUGUST 12, 2025 – The July report came in at 2.7%, a tick below the range that the data predicted and analysts expected. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 2.8%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 3.4%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.7%), and, thus indicate the annual CPI should increase slightly over the next few months. The data is predicting a reading of 2.9% next month. I think that will be spot on. The pundits and economists that have been calling for surging inflation due to tariffs have been 100% wrong. Again today, they are all saying just wait, it is coming. Lucky for them, it is looking like a sure thing that the CPI will be between 3.0% and 3.5% during the 4th Quarter. This will occur with or without tariffs. As we have seen all year, tariffs are not relevant.
The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting, Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.3%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. We have 5 weeks until decision time. If rates tick down another 10bp or such, a 25bp rate cut would be appropriate.
Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall.
Shalom,
The Mann
The market is giving an 89% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate at the September meeting, Currently, the market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.1%-4.3%. It is set at 4.25%-4.5%. We have 5 weeks until decision time. If rates tick down another 10bp or such, a 25bp rate cut would be appropriate.
Let me say this in advance – technical indicators are suggesting higher rates after September. Also, if CPI does go to 3.0%-3.5% in the 4th Quarter, a rate increase before yearend is more likely than a second or third rate decrease. That would surely infuriate a lot of people. You heard it here first. I will address this more as we enter the Fall.
Shalom,
The Mann
ZERO CHANCE OF RECESSION IN 2025
UPDATE AUGUST 15, 2025 – RIP any chance of a recession occurring this year. The Dow hit an all-time high this morning above 45,200. Don’t worry about a recession this year. With a good chance of CPI being above 3% in the 4th Quarter (as I noted in another post, that has NOTHING to do with tariffs), that is the only item for you to deal with that might affect your decision-making.
AUGUST 1, 2025 – With the Jobs Report coming in very weak today, immediately the pundits began screaming that a recession was occurring. Let me be clear and to the point – there is a 0% (!) chance of a recession occurring this year. No doublespeak from me:)
With the 3rd Quarter GDP very likely to be positive, we will not have two consecutive negative quarters this year. As I noted before, the 1st Quarter GDP was only negative because of an atypical trade issue due to the tariffs. Averaging out the first quarters, GDP has been above 1% this year. It will likely end the year up 1.5%-2.0%. This is an EXTREMELY STRONG economy. GDP growing at over twice the rate of population indicates a strong economy.
Another indicator used to forecast recessions is the yield curve. It is currently a negative 35bp. We are a long way from +100bp which will indicate we are in a recession.
Also, the stock market has made it clear that the economy will be strong through yearend. Yes, a hiccup and bit of a slowdown here and there are likely. But, overall, growth will be strong and a recession will not occur this year.
Let the recession-screaming pundits show how wrong they are over the next five months.
Shalom,
The Mann