DECEMBER 26, 2025 – I hope you had a great 2025 and that 2026 will be even better. Just a quick update on various items.
ECONOMY – For over 3 years now, I have forecast no recession and explained why the pundits calling for such were wrong. I have listed 10-15 ‘sure-fire’ recession indicators that have been wrong for years now. 3rd Quarter GDP came in at an incredible +4.3% and the early call for 4th Quarter GDP is +3.0%. The stock market also says no chance of a recession through the 2nd Quarter of 2026. How is that argument about tariffs destroying our economy holding up? As I said when tariffs began, they will not affect the economy or inflation. Speaking of inflation…
INFLATION – Due to the shutdown, there was no reading for October and through November the CPI came in at a lower than expected +2.7%. However, I will not bash the pundits that have said all along that tariffs would increase inflation. Although this reading ‘proves’ them wrong, it is not a ‘real’ number. The government held housing at 0.0% due to a lack of data from the shutdown. It is likely that housing expenses are still rising and this reading should have been a bit higher. However, it likely would not have been above 3.0%. In the end, tariffs did absolutely nothing to inflation or the economy.
RIP The Tariff Argument….along with the Climate Change Hoax:)
After the December reading comes in, it is going to be very difficult for CPI not to decline during the first half of the year.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market is around 3.6%. It is not indicating any change. However, if Trump puts in someone that will lower rates regardless of what the market says to do, we will be in for a lot of chaos. The Federal Reserve has NEVER led the market. To break that history will put us in unchartered territory.
SILVER and GOLD – I hope you own some. Own a lot. I remember 20 years ago when I had my wife’s entire retirement 100% in gold and our new stockbroker asked why. I explained it. Gold was around $400. It is $4500 now. Other than bitcoin, it is tough to find an 11x return over the past 20 years. The important thing to realize is this is not simply a cyclical move by a commodity. This is a mass exit from the US Dollar. This is a major break in faith in the US Dollar. I didn’t expect a total collapse of fiat currency for another 30 or so years (after us Baby Boomers have passed on and finally given up control of the world and its wealth). It might occur sooner.
ERRATA – 2025 will be remembered as one of the most significant years in all of human history. Humans no longer are the smartest entities on this rock. AGI has occurred. Corporations are actively switching from human employees to robots and AI systems. The beginning of the end for this round of fiat currencies began. Gen Z and generations after them are starting to feel the effects of The Dark Ages 2. Today will look like utopia compared to a year from now and two years from now and so on. Words may need to be invented for how bleak it is going to be. And 6-7 will not suffice:)
The best thing you can do is not waste time complaining. Be active in changing your life however needed to adopt AI and other changes. Spend time learning about post-human economics and the economic singularity. Trust me, that will be time well spent.
Maybe you will become one of us Exponentialists and brainstorm a world that has never existed. I think by 2030 we will look back and 2025 will seem like we were in caveman times. Change is now occurring by the week that we originally thought might takes years. Exponential change is upon us.
It can be a….
Happy New Year!
Shalom,
The Mann