OCTOBER 12, 2024 – The September report came in at 2.4%, in line with my estimated 2.4%-2.5%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.5%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 1.9%. These figures are slightly below the annualized rate (2.4%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area or decline slightly. The data is predicting a reading of 2.6% next month. I think it will be there or higher.
As a side note, the monthly CPI has been at 0.20% or lower for 5 straight months.
The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.4%-4.6%. It was recently cut to 5.0%. The Fed has some catching up to do. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann