SEPTEMBER 12, 2024 – The August report came in at 2.5%, below my estimated 2.6%-2.8%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 0.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 2.9%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (2.5%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area for awhile. The data is predicting a reading between 2.4% and 2.5% next month. I concur with the data.
As a side note, excluding rent CPI, the CPI has been slightly negative over the past four months. For the most part, deflation exists.
The market is telling the Fed to cut their rate by 25bp at the September meeting. As I have explained ad nauseum, the Fed FOLLOWS the market 100% of the time, so a 25bp cut is a near 100% certainty. Like death and taxes:) The odds of a 50bp cut are near zero. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann