AUGUST 15, 2024 – The June report came in at 2.9%, below the consensus estimate of 3.2%. I had estimated 2.8%-2.9%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 1.3%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.0%. These figures bracket the annualized rate (2.9%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should remain in this area for awhile. The data is predicting a reading between 2.6% and 2.8% next month. I concur with the data.
The market is now expecting 125bp in rate reductions from September through January. That seems reasonable with unemployment rising and the CPI below 3%. Til next month.
Shalom,
The Mann