UPDATE JULY 29, 2025 – It’s the day before the Fed announcement. As noted below, interest rates have not changed in the past 2 weeks. The market still has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. Right in the middle of the current 4.25%-4.5% range. The rate should remain unchanged and Trump should still be mad at Powell. The market is pricing in a reduction in September. I will see where we stand in two months.

JULY 15, 2025 – The June report came in at 2.7%, a tick above the range that the data predicted. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.5%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.4%. These figures are above the annualized rate (2.7%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should increase over the next few months. The data is predicting a reading of 2.8%-2.9% next month. I think that will be spot on. Please note, the CPI increases this Summer will be because inflation was around 0.1% per month last Summer. The increases will not be due to tariffs.
On July 30th at 2pm Eastern, the Fed will announce its decision on the Fed Funds Rate. The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 4.3%-4.4%. It is currently 4.25%-4.5%. The market is telling Mr. Powell not to cut the rate. Things can change in two weeks. But, that is doubtful as rates have been steady for awhile. A sure bet is President Trump will tweet soon thereafter condemning Powell again:)
Shalom,
The Mann