MAY 13, 2026 – April CPI came in at 3.8%. For now, there really is no sense in trying to forecast the CPI. The data expects CPI to be 4.0%-4.4% in the next report.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market still has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. Nothing has changed since the events started with Iran. Talk of a rate increase has picked up significantly. It is only about 9 months after I suggested such:) Why was it possible to predict a possible rate increase 9 months ago when the market was giving it a 0% chance of occurring? Simply put, the Elliott Wave Theory.
The 30-year Treasury Bond yield is over 5% and has increased by 100bp (!!!) since The Fed started lowering rates. Any day now it should exceed the October 2023 high (5.12%) which will place it at a 19-year high (July 2007). We all remember what occurred in 2008-2009.
GENOME – I have the results of my genome sequencing and will discuss when I have time. Pretty neat info.
Til next month re the above two items.
Shalom,
The Mann