Tag Archives: stock market

INTERESTING MARKET AHEAD

UPDATED February 1, 2019 – Gold hit $1326 this week.  Right in the middle of the target range.  A top could be in place.  Albeit, one indicator suggests it might occur over the next week or two.  If I were a trader, I would sell and stand aside for the decline to around $1200 – early figure, that I will update as the decline evolves.

Treasury Bonds look like they are into a major decline which means higher interest rates ahead.

The Dollar is still in the early stages of its decline.  Which means the Euro is in the early stages of its advance.

So far, all is on schedule.  The stock market should be at a top and ready for a decent decline.

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January 28, 2019 – Did anyone notice that the market was up about 14% while the Government Shutdown!  Impressive.  If they had only kept the government shut for the rest of the year, we would all be rich:)

This rally has likely run its course.  14% in a month is excessive.  The question is whether the upcoming decline will be just a correction in a new bull market or the next leg down in a major bear market.

If it is a bear market, the upcoming decline will make December look mild.  That is SCARY!

If a new bull market has started, the decline should bottom around the December 24 low in late February.  It might hold above that low a bit, though.

This is the position where you let it play out and then invest accordingly.

The dollar is down from a month ago as predicted.  But, a much larger decline is straight ahead.

After a month of struggling with $1300, gold finally edged above it on Friday.  So, it is now in the $1300-$1350 topping range.

In a world that seems to be in chaos, all is going as planned.

Once in awhile I analyze strange markets for friends.  Recently it was Australia.  I will put my forecast in writing so I can see how it plays out.  I am expecting the Aussie stock market to go up 10%-15% this year and maybe into next.  Followed by a 50% decline in the 2020’s.

The Aussie Dollar is around 72 cents to the USD.  I expect it to increase to 90-95 cents over the next few years.  Then a decline to 75-80 cents.  Followed by a major rally to above par with the US Dollar sometime in the 2020’s.  My friend has 7 figures relying on this latter forecast so I sure hope I am right!

I hope your investments are doing well.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, QUICK FORECASTS, & THE BITCOIN CRASH

December 15, 2018 – Most importantly, Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.  Safe travels if you are out and about this Season.

Just a quick note on the markets as the year winds down.

The stock market has forecast that the economy (I guess we can use GDP as its measurement) will remain strong in the 4th Quarter of 2018 and 1st Quarter of 2019.  However, the 2nd Quarter of 2019 should show a significant slowdown.  The 1st Quarter might reflect a bit of that slowdown.  The Bear Market is at its midpoint.  That doesn’t mean it will decline an amount equal to what it has already declined.  Just that it has traced out half the waves of a full decline.  2019 should be interesting.  Interesting is always good:)

The US Dollar is near a top and should decline for awhile.  The Euro will do the opposite, of course.

Gold has rallied nicely and should continue to $1300-$1350.  Then decline back to around $1200.  This action likely will take up most of next year.  A final push to the $1450 area will follow.  But, that now appears to be a ways off.  Silver has been sluggish.  But, it will follow gold when the time comes.

Lastly, a note on the crash of the cryptocurrencies.  A few of us started watching Bitcoin back when it was under $10.  In fact, when it was a below a $1 I was aware of it.  But, it took an increase in activity to keep it on the radar.  As with any bubble (and this is the greatest bubble in the history of the world….bigger than the South Sea Bubble…..Bitcoin went up over 633,000% (!) from bottom tick to top tick), the decline is usually around 80% to 99%+.

From its peak of $19,800-$20,250, Bitcoin is down 81%.  I can only imagine how many late investors are holding major losses.  Bitcoin is possibly the only significant survivor of this crash.  Most of the others will go to $0.01 and, thus, down over 99%.  So, far Ethereum (-93%), Bitcoin Cash (-98%), Litecoin (-94%), and several other are down well over 90%.  These will likely go down near 100% as they have no value at all.  Just people gambling on air.

The bottom target range for Bitcoin is $150 to $1900.  Yes, that is a bit wide, but for an item that has traded from $0.003 to $20,000, such is life.  The point is a decline of at least 50% from current levels is projected.  I might, only might, start looking at it as a buy between $500 and $800.  But, I doubt I will ever buy into again.  Afterall, it is just fake air with no value….no worth….nothing to actually own.  I would rather go back to trading Pork Belly futures:)

To give you some perspective of the insanity of a top….at the top of the Dot.Com Bubble companies (and the Smart Money) were trying to convince that the public that it was no longer important for a company to be profitable.  Companies just needed to generate revenues.  Never need to make a profit.  Of course, the masses buy into any lie at a bubble top.  The Smart Money sells everything to them and the crash occurs that takes many companies down 100%.  And the public loses big time.

Well in this great bubble of blockchain being the cure for everything….crypocurrencies being better than fiat currencies and gold and so on….companies issuing new stock in ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings)….the ultimate sign of insanity was the ICO offering for a company named ‘Telegram.’  Forbes magazine reported the company “has  no viable business model, as it makes no money – on purpose.’  The principal of Telegram said “Making profits will never be an end-goal for Telegram.”  On May 4th, the ‘company’ raised $1.7 Billion, a record for ICOs.

So, there’s your ultimate insane top.  ‘People’ (I think morons and idiots would be better terms) invested $1.7 Billion in a ‘company’ with no plan at all, no plan to ever make money, etc.  They simply flushed $1.7 Billion down the toilet.  7 months later the company has not even issued its tokens.  The question should be why would so many people put their money into a sure loss situation?  At the top of a bubble the masses see no way at all that they can lose on an investment.  Thankfully, it is always that way.  The Smart Money needs someone to sell this junk to at the top.

Socionomics explains the above…..I am finally at the point where I will begin writing the final paper of my real estate career.  It will deal with Socionomics and real estate.  I have spent the past 3 years thinking about the topic and gathering books and articles.  Now to start writing it.  I expect it might take a year or more.  We shall see…

That is all for now.

Remember, Spend Forward, Use Forward!

The Mann