SEPTEMBER 13, 2023 – The September report came in at 3.7%, just below my forecast of 3.5%-3.6%. The 3-month annualized inflation rate is 3.9%. The 6-month annualized inflation rate is 4.1%. These figures are slightly above the annualized rate (3.7%) and thus indicate the annual CPI should not change much.
Based on the data, my prediction for next month’s figure is 3.8%. Due to oil prices steadily increasing, I do not think 3.9% can be ruled out.
I think the 3.8%-3.9% range will remain the same for the November report, also. Then watch out as the next two reports should show annual CPI for 2023 to be above 4%. That should not make the Fed happy.
OIL – A quick note for all of the happy plants on Earth. We are at a record level of 105 million (!) barrels of oil being used everyday. We have surpassed the prior record that occurred in 2019 before the Pandemic. The death of fossil fuels has been greatly exaggerated. In fact, there appears to be a direct correlation between more Electric Vehicles (EVs) and more oil consumption. This is not a surprise to anyone outside the misinformation environmentalist community. More electric usage means more fossil fuel usage. Which, of course, helps the planet’s plants as they live on CO2. As production is running at only 103 million barrels per day, the shortage will continue to drive oil prices higher. Which will contribute to inflation edging higher.
For a moment, you should sit and try to comprehend how much oil 105 millions barrels is. There are 42 gallons in a barrel. That is a mindboggling amount of oil being used everyday. For decades in the past and decades in the future. How much oil is/was in the Earth?!?!? Seems like the Earth is a giant oil ball. And if we use all that oil and it turns to CO2 or such, will the Earth become much lighter than it was? How many dinosaurs did it take to create all of this oil? Thankfully, humans saw the opportunity for sustainability and found a way to recycle all of the dinosaurs. We definitely have at least 30-50+ years more of recycling ahead of us. Environmentalists, you are embarrassing failures.
Til next month’s report.
Shalom,
The Mann