UPDATE – AUGUST 10, 2023 – I just came across some interesting information. Over the past decade, regional banks only had 18% of their loan originations backed by office properties – larger banks had 26%. They also originated a lower share in hotels, industrial, and retail properties. Regional banks had 47% of their volume in apartments compared to 29% for larger banks. The concern about regional bank loan portfolios being decimated by office building loans is obviously unfounded.

AUGUST 9, 2023 – In mid-June I posted about the so-called CRE loan debacle that lies ahead. I provided some hypothetical numbers that showed for the most part borrowers will have no problem with their refis.
I just reviewed an appraisal of an apartment property that I also reviewed 5 years ago when the borrower purchased the property. The bank was kind enough to provide me the loan details then and now. So, let’s see how the numbers work out.
2018 – A $633,000 loan was made against an $800,000 appraised value (purchase price was $840,000). The LTV was 79%. Annual Debt Service was $49,670 based on a 4.89% interest rate and 20-year amortization. The appraiser estimated NOI at $60,387. The DSCR was 1.22.
2023 – The outstanding loan balance is now $527,230. The current appraised value is $1,280,000. The new LTV is 41%(!). Annual Debt Service will be $49,814 based on a 7.20% interest rate and 20-year amortization. The appraiser estimates NOI at $97,474. The new DSCR is 1.96(!). ((I was curious what interest rate would make the Annual Debt Service result in the same 1.22 DSCR as when the original loan was made. It is 14.27%! I shout to the moon that everyone can easily afford 7%+ interest rates!!! Wake me up when we hit 14%:) ))
This will be the case with most apartment and industrial loans. Net Operating Income has increased significantly more than Annual Debt Service. Higher interest rates of 200-300bp will not be a problem for borrowers.
As I noted in my June post, office and retail property loans probably will run into issues. I also think the above is more applicable to income-producing property loans than owner-occupied property loans.
As I write this, regional bank stocks are up 38% from their lows a few months ago. The market is telling us it has no concerns about CRE loans. I believe the market over the economists and pundits that are a broken record about CRE loan and a recession.
Shalom,
The Mann
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Addenda – In the real-world example above, I kept the refinancing at the current outstanding balance. The borrower is actually getting new monies and refinancing $800,000. The Annual Debt Service will be $75,586. The resulting LTV is 63% and DSCR is 1.29. Even with a significant increase in the loan amount, the loan ratios are in safe territory.
I continue to say both commercial and residential borrowers can easily afford 7%+ interest rate loans.