JANUARY 26, 2026 – Now, it is official that everyone that said tariffs would lead to runaway inflation and a recession have been PROVEN WRONG! Will they admit it? No. Just research anyone you hear to see if they had predicted tariffs would be a problem. If they did, then why listen to them now? You heard me say from the beginning they would not be a problem.
December CPI came in at an amazing 2.7%. It is hard to explain how incredible the year ending below 3.0% is. I doubt anyone will mention this, but, deflation might be more of a worry now. 3-month inflation is -0.9% and 6-month inflation is +0.9%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 1.9%-2.1% in the next report. January usually has about the highest inflation reading of the year. So, I would expect something in the 2.5%-2.8%.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann