FEBRUARY 17, 2026 – January CPI came in at 2.4%. This was below the consensus 2.5% and should put the discussion of tariffs to bed permanently. 3-month inflation is 0.6% and 6-month inflation is 1.4%. It looks like concerns regarding 3% are history. Getting to 2% will be extremely difficult. But, I am not sure it is needed.
My data expects CPI to decrease significantly to 2.0%-2.1% in the next report. I think it will be in the 2.3%-2.5% range.
FED FUNDS RATE – The market has the Fed Funds Rate priced at 3.6%-3.7%. It is set at 3.75%-4.0%. No change at the next meeting looks likely.
Shalom,
The Mann